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kidrock

I'm starting to think we are 4-5 years away from competing for real

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Elias has done a lot that I like.

But after 3 drafts he doesn't have a single legitimate pitching prospect that he drafted & developed.  Maybe Baumler will come around after his Tommy John.  

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, waynebug said:

Elias has done a lot that I like.

But after 3 drafts he doesn't have a single legitimate pitching prospect that he drafted & developed.  Maybe Baumler will come around after his Tommy John.  

 

 

 

I'm thinking the answer to the question of the pitching is going to be harder than trading off surplus corner outfielders.

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I do not know how many years it will take for the Orioles to win something where we can really be proud again.  I do know that IMO they are always starting in the hole of a very tough division and a hitters park, both which dictate  an above  average pitching department to really compete.    Until the pitching is above average,  I think that every thing else concerning the team is maybe up for discussion, but meaningless.   

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12 hours ago, Oriole1940 said:

I do not know how many years it will take for the Orioles to win something where we can really be proud again.  I do know that IMO they are always starting in the hole of a very tough division and a hitters park, both which dictate  an above  average pitching department to really compete.    Until the pitching is above average,  I think that every thing else concerning the team is maybe up for discussion, but meaningless.   

The division is tough but the Rays have done ok. In the last 14 years (including 2021) they have been over .500 10 times and they had 2 seasons of 80-82. They were in the playoffs 6 times and about to be 7. We have been so far behind our division rivals for so long it is amazing we have any fans at all. We had 5 seasons of .500 or better in the last 24 years (including 2021). That is St. Louis Browns territory.

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1 hour ago, waynebug said:

Is there really any local person with deep pockets interested in the Orioles ?  Or would the minority owners just acquire the team ?

 I think that's a great question.

There would be two requirements for a buyer of the Orioles: (a) having a billion to 1.5 billion to buy out the Orioles (that's for the whole team -- less, of course, if the buyer already owns some of it), and getting the approval of 75% of the other owners, which probably will require being able to show enough financial strength (and a willingness), after coming up with the purchase price, to incur losses from a future pandemic or similar catastrophic event or from a strike or lockout, and to make additional investments in the franchise. 

I can't tell who's still in the Angelos ownership group. (I thought he bought out Tom Clancy's widow, but don't now see a reference to that.) Maybe there is someone with that kind of money and commitment, or more likely someone to put together a group of investors who can meet those requirements, but I don't know who that would be.

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I think 2023 is a pipe dream. How is this mess supposed to all come together next year to put us in a situation to “contend” after one more season?  We have no SP and there isn’t even enough SP in the minors to build a pipe dream/best case rotation. 

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8 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think 2023 is a pipe dream. How is this mess supposed to all come together next year to put us in a situation to “contend” after one more season?  We have no SP and there isn’t even enough SP in the minors to build a pipe dream/best case rotation. 

best case scenario seems to be finishing .500 in 2023/2024 with a shot at the WC in 2024/2025. A lot depends on them actually signing quality FA's this off-season/next off-season instead of the usual redemption/value projects we've seen. Another factor is what changes are made in the negotiation/lockout this off-season that could affect the timeline.

Or Ownership is just holding on to sell when the old man croaks? 

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9 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think 2023 is a pipe dream. How is this mess supposed to all come together next year to put us in a situation to “contend” after one more season?  We have no SP and there isn’t even enough SP in the minors to build a pipe dream/best case rotation. 

Good news is we now have maximum payroll flexibility. We should have ability to fill several holes over the next couple years as soon as we are ready to compete. Right now we have too many holes to fill from free agency alone, but we have one of the top farm systems with Grayson and Adley appearing ready. Looks like Westburg could take an infield spot soon and we have a pipeline of outfielders to go with Mullins and Mountcastle. I believe Elias was at Houston when they brought in Verlander. 

It is true, the biggest disappointment so far has been the development of the 2020-21 cohort of SP prospects. We did hit on Means but would have been great to have a couple of others by now as pitching had seemed a relative strength prior to Elias coming in. I think Elias thought at least one of Kremer and Akin would be a #3 type, and he might hit on one of Lopez, Zimmerman, Lowther, and Wells to be a #4/#5 type. That was a totally reasonable plan but so far that has not been the actual case. Would have been great to figure that out in 2020 so we would already be on to Plan B by now. 

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On 7/28/2021 at 2:24 PM, kidrock said:

After reading through an article on who the Cubs may potentially trade away, I began to think that we are further away in the rebuild than I originally thought.  They have many decent to plus players who many think they are going to trade.  If they can't compete with a core of Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Kimbrel, Hendricks, Davies, Wisdom, it makes me feel like the O's are just so far away.

Maybe I am being foolish or dramatic, but look at St Louis, Wash DC, Atlanta, Philly, NYM.  All have much better rosters, yet they are all around 500.  The Braves weren't doing that great before Acuna got hurt from what I remember.

Am I off base here?

Who do you see being key players on the 2026 team? 

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14 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

How is this mess supposed to all come together next year to put us in a situation to “contend” after one more season?  We have no SP and there isn’t even enough SP in the minors to build a pipe dream/best case rotation. 

Didn't you know? When you "rebuild" you magically get good after 3-4 years.

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Assume they win 54 games this year.

That is winning 54/162 or 1/3rd of your games.  

And let's assume a successful rebuild would be winning approximately 1/2 of their games in 2023.  That would be about 81 wins.

So it seems like the aim for 2022 should be about 67 which is 5/12 of 162games.  5/12 is Halfway between 1/3 and 1/2.

 

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On 8/8/2021 at 11:51 AM, Fuzzball22 said:

The division is tough but the Rays have done ok. In the last 14 years (including 2021) they have been over .500 10 times and they had 2 seasons of 80-82. They were in the playoffs 6 times and about to be 7. We have been so far behind our division rivals for so long it is amazing we have any fans at all. We had 5 seasons of .500 or better in the last 24 years (including 2021). That is St. Louis Browns territory.

Well said. This year, the Orioles are 17-47 (.265 PCT) against the AL East. Comparatively, their other records are: AL Central at 10-24 (.294), AL West 13-15 (.464), and Interleague at 6-11 (.353).

While the AL East has always been a tough division, I don't think it's a very valid excuse. This team's roster stinks against any division.

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