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Il BuonO

Your 2022 FA Wish List

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I have to say, if we had Scherzer it is hard to imagine us winning less than 81 games. How do we not win at least half our games with a rotation of Scherzer, Means, Grayson, Akin, and Ellis/Zimmerman/Lowther? I can see the argument for going big on an Ace in free agency. Maybe not this year but if we are ever competitive it seems like that is the direction Elias is heading. 

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4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I have to say, if we had Scherzer it is hard to imagine us winning less than 81 games. How do we not win at least half our games with a rotation of Scherzer, Means, Grayson, Akin, and Ellis/Zimmerman/Lowther? 

Really? Because I have a very hard time imagining how a 37 year old Max Scherzer (who would be moving back to the AL after many years in the NL, and a presently STACKED as heck AL East at that) and 4 or 5 months of a kid who has never even thrown a pitch in AAA take us from 52 wins to 81 wins :noidea:

Maybe if we also signed Corey Seager or Carlos Correa...?

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45 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Really? Because I have a very hard time imagining how a 37 year old Max Scherzer (who would be moving back to the AL after many years in the NL, and a presently STACKED as heck AL East at that) and 4 or 5 months of a kid who has never even thrown a pitch in AAA take us from 52 wins to 81 wins :noidea:

Maybe if we also signed Corey Seager or Carlos Correa...?

Scherzer plus Grayson and Rutschman. Yes, the WAR don't quite add up if you are assuming 52 is our current baseline but I think we made some headway in evaluation. We played .400 in September and I think actually playing to win would make a difference. Correa and a bullpen arm makes us a playoff team! 

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1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Scherzer plus Grayson and Rutschman. Yes, the WAR don't quite add up if you are assuming 52 is our current baseline but I think we made some headway in evaluation. We played .400 in September and I think actually playing to win would make a difference. Correa and a bullpen arm makes us a playoff team! 

I think that’s very optimistic.  However, much depends on who improves as they gain experience.   

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3 hours ago, Aglets said:

I want to know what Rodrigo Lopez, Daniel Cabrera, and Bruce Chen are up to nowadays.  I bet they could be had for real cheap.

This is totally unfair to Rodrigo Lopez.  🙂  He was a real needle in the haystack that worked out well for the O's.

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4 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

 

So, Gausman will be out of their range at the numbers you quoted, but I think that’s off. He started off hot, but his second half wasn’t as good. In any case, even five years of Gausman gives me pause. 

Verlander, otoh may be head rather cheaply (I don’t mean cheap) comparatively. It would still be a big splash, but he was still pumping 95 mph FBs before he hit the IL. 

Scherzer, like Greinke before him (think the FA version signed by the Dodgers) is the only one who makes me covetous. 

It’s a lot of money for any of them. Whereas Stroman (who I like a lot), can probably be had on a reasonable deal. 

Yeah, Gausman was Cy Young quality in the first 3 months - and then like a 4th starter the last 3 months - though with a very high SO rate and even had a a better SO/W rate in the 2nd half.  He'll get paid - just not by the O's.  Stroman probably makes the most sense of those 4 pitchers for the O's, but I doubt they ante up for him.    

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4 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

This is totally unfair to Rodrigo Lopez.  🙂  He was a real needle in the haystack that worked out well for the O's.

I initially set out to try and name the main 5 man rotation from the 2005 Orioles team.  I'm a little ashamed I only got 3/5.   The others were Bedard and Ponson if anyone is curious.

And Chen was actually the one who had the best season.........believe it or not.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think that’s very optimistic.  However, much depends on who improves as they gain experience.   

How about these WAR projections:

Infield: Rutschman 3; Mountcastle 1.5; Urias 1.5; Mateo 0.5; Gutierrez 0.5 - 7.0 WAR total

Outfield: Mullins 4.5; Hays 3.0; Santander/Stowers 1; Mancini 0.5 - 9.0 WAR total

Rotation: Scherzer 5.0; Means 3.5; Grayson 2.0; Ellis/Akin/Zimmerman 1.0 - 11.5 WAR  total

Bullpen: Wells 1.5; Scott 0.5; Sulser 2.0; Tate 0.5 - 4.5 WAR total

This gets us 32 WAR, about the same as the 2021 Indians (80 wins, 31.6 WAR) and Phillies (82 wins, 34 WAR). Assumes some regression from Means, Mullins, Sulser, Urias. A little progression from Mouncastle based on how he finished the season versus the slow start and Santander based on career norms. No other free agents, no contributions from anyone else. Might need to pick up a couple more wins from somewhere but I really don't think it's too far off.

 

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1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

How about these WAR projections:

Infield: Rutschman 3; Mountcastle 1.5; Urias 1.5; Mateo 0.5; Gutierrez 0.5 - 7.0 WAR total

Outfield: Mullins 4.5; Hays 3.0; Santander/Stowers 1; Mancini 0.5 - 9.0 WAR total

Rotation: Scherzer 5.0; Means 3.5; Grayson 2.0; Ellis/Akin/Zimmerman 1.0 - 11.5 WAR  total

Bullpen: Wells 1.5; Scott 0.5; Sulser 2.0; Tate 0.5 - 4.5 WAR total

This gets us 32 WAR, about the same as the 2021 Indians (80 wins, 31.6 WAR) and Phillies (82 wins, 34 WAR). Assumes some regression from Means, Mullins, Sulser, Urias. A little progression from Mouncastle based on how he finished the season versus the slow start and Santander based on career norms. No other free agents, no contributions from anyone else. Might need to pick up a couple more wins from somewhere but I really don't think it's too far off.

 

I think that’s extremely optimistic.   For one thing, you’re assuming that nobody on the team will have a negative WAR.   If you look at this year’s team, our offensive players who had positive WAR were worth 16.0 total, but then you had players with negative WAR totaling -8.1, dragging the position player total to 7.9.   On the pitching side, the positive pitchers were worth 10.8, but the negative ones were worth -9.8, leaving a grand total of 1.0 WAR for the pitchers.    

Since you chose Cleveland as a comp, they had negative position players totaling -2.1 WAR, negative pitchers totaling -3.6 WAR.    Every team winds up having some guys like these, the O’s just have more of them than most teams do.  And they will have some next year too. 
 

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think that’s extremely optimistic.   For one thing, you’re assuming that nobody on the team will have a negative WAR.   If you look at this year’s team, our offensive players who had positive WAR were worth 16.0 total, but then you had players with negative WAR totaling -8.1, dragging the position player total to 7.9.   On the pitching side, the positive pitchers were worth 10.8, but the negative ones were worth -9.8, leaving a grand total of 1.0 WAR for the pitchers.    

Since you chose Cleveland as a comp, they had negative position players totaling -2.1 WAR, negative pitchers totaling -3.6 WAR.    Every team winds up having some guys like these, the O’s just have more of them than most teams do.  And they will have some next year too. 
 

I think this team have a winning season next year is too optimistic.  Your point did highlight that the O's will improve just as much by getting rid of terrible players.  It seems like the O's have several position players and pitchers who could at least be mediocre and hopefully replacement level next year.  The O's need to sign a good free agent starter (not Harvey/Felix type) and a short term player at SS.  I could definitely see 70+ wins if Adley, Gray Rod, Stowers, and others have good rookie seasons. 

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2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think this team have a winning season next year is too optimistic.  Your point did highlight that the O's will improve just as much by getting rid of terrible players.  It seems like the O's have several position players and pitchers who could at least be mediocre and hopefully replacement level next year.  The O's need to sign a good free agent starter (not Harvey/Felix type) and a short term player at SS.  I could definitely see 70+ wins if Adley, Gray Rod, Stowers, and others have good rookie seasons. 

It’s a lot to ask.  I’m reminded of 2009 when the following players debuted: Wieters, Tillman, Bergesen, Matusz, Berken, Reimold, Turner and Hernandez. Also, the Japanese veteran Koji Uehara debuted.  They also signed Cesar Izturis, Ty Wigginton,  Greg Zaun, Chad Moeller, and Mark Hendrickson, and purchased Rich Hill.   Despite that infusion of talent, the O’s won 4 fewer games than the year before.  It’s tough to expect rookies to do too much in their first year or two.   Heck, Bergesen, Reimold and Wieters all made pretty good contributions to that team, but it didn’t really boost their record.   

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It is easy to not take into account the huge challenge it is playing in the AL East.   Sure we can and do sometimes, improve, but those kind of competitors are not asleep at the wheel.  They are out trying their best to improve also.  So we are not always trying to catch a stationary target, but an improving target.   That is why it is a huge challenge in the AL East,  when we spot these competitors that big of a lead in talent.  And that is proven by how many years we actually compete,  versus how many years we play.    

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18 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think this team have a winning season next year is too optimistic.  Your point did highlight that the O's will improve just as much by getting rid of terrible players.  It seems like the O's have several position players and pitchers who could at least be mediocre and hopefully replacement level next year.  The O's need to sign a good free agent starter (not Harvey/Felix type) and a short term player at SS.  I could definitely see 70+ wins if Adley, Gray Rod, Stowers, and others have good rookie seasons. 

This is where I am. My dream Free Agent wish list would be Stroman and Bryant. That's, obviously, not happening, but I would like a solid mid-rotation starter (Gray, E.Rodriguez, Desclafani) and someone to help anchor the infield at either SS or 3B. A return of Iglesias or Galvis would be fine. Kyle Seager if he is available would work. I'd also like to add a mid-range veteran reliever (or two) that we can use to help anchor the pen and take some burden off the young guns. 

The OF, 1B, C and DH are all set. I like the idea of Urias, Jones, and Mateo getting work in the remaining two infield spots to see if any of them can stick either as a starter or a utility option and then seeing what Vavra and/or Westburg can do later in the season should either earn the promotion. I'd love to fill the spot with a top-to-middle of the order bat that can allow everyone else to slide down a spot, but even adding someone to bat near the bottom helps. 

For the pitching, if we have Means and Rodriguez by midseason, adding someone like Gray, E.Rod, or DeSclafani to the mix would give us three solid options (though I do expect some growing pains for Rodriguez). We can then given a couple spots to whoever earns the chance of: Lowther, Baumann, Akin, Kremer, Ellis, Wells, etc. and tax the bullpen a bit less which should allow some of the guys we have to be better. 

I don't think we need big years from all the youngsters for a 70ish win season. I'm skeptical on the "plus" part, but I think we could see us at least avoid 100 losses and get to (or close to) 70 if Rutschman is good but not great and a couple arms (Rodriguez included) combine to be serviceable. Just avoiding giving over 680 plate appearances to a 63 OPS+ Franco and 47 OPS+ Valaika helps. (Yes, I know I mentioned Jones earlier and he was even worse, but there's at least some upside there and other options included with him if he continues to be awful). 

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21 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think this team have a winning season next year is too optimistic.  Your point did highlight that the O's will improve just as much by getting rid of terrible players.  It seems like the O's have several position players and pitchers who could at least be mediocre and hopefully replacement level next year.  The O's need to sign a good free agent starter (not Harvey/Felix type) and a short term player at SS.  I could definitely see 70+ wins if Adley, Gray Rod, Stowers, and others have good rookie seasons. 

Improving the infield would be a big help. Adley Rutschman will help out at catcher, but any real improvement is going to need upgrades at 2B/SS/3B. If the Orioles could at least get to average at two of those three position it will go a long way in 2022. Urias can be one of the pieces to that puzzle without having to sign a free agent or making a trade.

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