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Your 2022 FA Wish List

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree, he’ll get a lot more than that.   I was more referring to what the Astros would pay to keep him.   I don’t think they’ll be in the finalists of the bidding for Correa because of his injury history with them.   

No..because they are smart.

Look at the deals they hand out.  They go for the short term guys, like they have with Brantley or Beltran in the past.

They arent afraid to spend a lot of money but they don’t want to do it for a long period of time. (Outside of McCann, I can’t think of a long term deal they handed out..long term being 4+ years)

Same strategy I would personally have. They develop the elite talent and fill in the gaps with the FA that will sign for lesser years.  Now, that can hurt you because those players are generally older guys and they could decline at any moment but it’s worth the risk imo.

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2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

MLB Now yesterday excerpted some of Correa's interview here with the Cubs Talk Podcast.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs-talk-podcast

He had his talking points down, citing how he led league in WAR, in dWAR, how even though teams don't like 10-year contracts they get given out to 30 year olds, and he is going to be 27 in Year1.   

Dan O'Dowd on the panel with Brian Kenny after the clip had the GM's counter of "two seasons with 475 PA".   Their back and forth was between 7 and 10 years on term.

So during the ALDS, he took a few minutes to cultivate the Chicago market.

The last two years, he has managed to overcome the intermittent injuries that dogged him so 2017-2019.

Yea but I don’t consider 2020 to be something to hang your hat on in terms of saying, look I was healthy!

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7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No..because they are smart.

Look at the deals they hand out.  They go for the short term guys, like they have with Brantley or Beltran in the past.

They arent afraid to spend a lot of money but they don’t want to do it for a long period of time. (Outside of McCann, I can’t think of a long term deal they handed out..long term being 4+ years)

They gave Josh Reddick 4/$52 mm.   That turned into 4/$43.8 mm due to the pandemic, and they got 7.1 rWAR out of him, so a modest win for them but nothing spectacular.  He had an excellent year the year they won the title.   

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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea but I don’t consider 2020 to be something to hang your hat on in terms of saying, look I was healthy!

I hear you there, it was a bad year.   But I think for building his overall resume for selling his 2022-2030, he knew he had to work on the 650 part of his WAR, 650 and WAR/650 credentials.   One thing I've seen once or twice in various Are Contract Years Real? pieces over the years is players can't play better, but can boost playing time by fighting through the small stuff more.   

B-Ref still gave him 1.7 for his 2020 with the defensive contributions, so figure that's ~4 wins over 162.   He's no Iron Man, but has the Ripken thing where the HR/RBI catch notice but the package is Defensive Superstar/Offensive Star.

 

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4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I hear you there, it was a bad year.   But I think for building his overall resume for selling his 2022-2030, he knew he had to work on the 650 part of his WAR, 650 and WAR/650 credentials.   One thing I've seen once or twice in various Are Contract Years Real? pieces over the years is players can't play better, but can boost playing time by fighting through the small stuff more.   

B-Ref still gave him 1.7 for his 2020 with the defensive contributions, so figure that's ~4 wins over 162.   He's no Iron Man, but has the Ripken thing where the HR/RBI catch notice but the package is Defensive Superstar/Offensive Star.

 

That’s fine..he can paint the picture any way he wants..but the team that gives him the Lindor contract will be regretting it pretty early…just like the Mets already do.

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28 minutes ago, SpOkane said:

The current Astros regime did do at least 3 deals over 4 years:

  1. Altuve 7/163.5
  2. Bregman 5/100
  3. McCullers 5/85

McCullers may be the one that doesn't work out so well.

Yea but they weren’t FA deals and none of those deals is best the level Correa will get.

Most teams will spend to keep their own before they hit free agency.  (This is where Tampa gets hurt because they don’t generally do this and when they do, they still trade guys when they get to the more expensive years)

The longest deal there is Altuve and they are done with that deal at age 34.  He hasn’t been worth less than 27.7M In any 162 game season since 2013.  They likely won’t regret any of that contract outside of maybe the last year and even then, they probably won’t regret it at all.  He has already been worth well over 100M of that deal. (And obviously 2020 was a savings in terms of not paying out the full deal)

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52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea but they weren’t FA deals and none of those deals is best the level Correa will get.

Most teams will spend to keep their own before they hit free agency.  (This is where Tampa gets hurt because they don’t generally do this and when they do, they still trade guys when they get to the more expensive years)

The longest deal there is Altuve and they are done with that deal at age 34.  He hasn’t been worth less than 27.7M In any 162 game season since 2013.  They likely won’t regret any of that contract outside of maybe the last year and even then, they probably won’t regret it at all.  He has already been worth well over 100M of that deal. (And obviously 2020 was a savings in terms of not paying out the full deal)

Right. They tend to spend their money on their own players or those acquired through trades (Verlander, Greinke). 

Re: Altuve's deal. The Astros might just play a half season's worth of postseason games by the end of it.

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1 hour ago, SpOkane said:

The current Astros regime did do at least 3 deals over 4 years:

  1. Altuve 7/163.5
  2. Bregman 5/100
  3. McCullers 5/85

McCullers may be the one that doesn't work out so well.

Altuve - Spring Training 2018

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/03/19/astros-jose-altuve-contract-payroll/438990002/

Sounds like at that time Astros still had two uber-cheap years from the early career thing somewhere along the Acuna-B.Lowe spectrum.  (So great for the Clubs when the signing bonuses lack Set for Life heft)    Across 2011-2017, Altuve did his 6.x years of service, and was a clear elite performer.

Bregman - Spring Training 2019

https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/03/20/alex-bregman-astros-deal-extension

Coming of an 8-win 2018 having given 2.x years of service.  The 5/100 didn't kick in until after they kept their minimum wage for 2019, but did have $10M signing bonus.   It set his 3 Arb years at $11M/each, and 2 FA years at $28.5M/each.

McCullers - Spring Training 2021

https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2021/03/26/lance-mccullers-astros-finalize-deal-adding-85-million-for-2022-26/

He got all the way to just before Opening Day of his walk year, with TJ interrupting his track.   Again looks like the Astros kept the 2021 salary at its arb level, but a decent Signing Bonus part of the structure.

Spring Training really seems to be the time of year for that shop.

I learned during ALDS that with Pitcher Qualifying Seasons getting thinner and thinner, McCullers' 162.1 innings of 3.16 was good for AL 2nd place.   

 

 

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5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No..because they are smart.

Look at the deals they hand out.  They go for the short term guys, like they have with Brantley or Beltran in the past.

They arent afraid to spend a lot of money but they don’t want to do it for a long period of time. (Outside of McCann, I can’t think of a long term deal they handed out..long term being 4+ years)

Same strategy I would personally have. They develop the elite talent and fill in the gaps with the FA that will sign for lesser years.  Now, that can hurt you because those players are generally older guys and they could decline at any moment but it’s worth the risk imo.

Altuve extension?

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In order to sign a FA... they have to want to play for your team.

Or have been continuing to dance when the music stopped... leaving them limited options.

We will be lucky to sign a value middle-of-the-order guy.. or someone coming off an injury.. GR and Means make a good front end... and there are already some decent arms tetering between ML and AAA

And maybe we get lucky and snag a 1.5 WAR guy for the left side of the infield.

That... coupled with Rutschman...  and maybe Stowers...  and the healthy return of Urias and Mateo.. Continued development of Hays and Mountcastle... and a little maturation out of the guys slated for the pen...  and all of a sudden you've got a bunch of guys all of whom have a positive WAR..

Stop trotting out negative WAR guys game after game... and add a decent arm or two... and this is a .500 + baseball team.

 

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12 minutes ago, owknows said:

In order to sign a FA... they have to want to play for your team.

Or have been continuing to dance when the music stopped... leaving them limited options.

We will be lucky to sign a value middle-of-the-order guy.. or someone coming off an injury.. GR and Means make a good front end... and there are already some decent arms tetering between ML and AAA

And maybe we get lucky and snag a 1.5 WAR guy for the left side of the infield.

That... coupled with Rutschman...  and maybe Stowers...  and the healthy return of Urias and Mateo.. Continued development of Hays and Mountcastle... and a little maturation out of the guys slated for the pen...  and all of a sudden you've got a bunch of guys all of whom have a positive WAR..

Stop trotting out negative WAR guys game after game... and add a decent arm or two... and this is a .500 + baseball team.

 

That or your team offers the most money.  Time and time again, players have signed with teams that couldn't have been their first choice, but go with the money.  Would be good to sign a nice free agent or two.  Just solid veterans who could be regulars and help the team.  The O's really need a free agent starter and a middle infielder.  The O's will probably sign 5 trash guys instead of 2 solid free agents. 

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