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Il BuonO

Your 2022 FA Wish List

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1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

MLBTR is reporting that Jon Gray is likely going to be seeking a 3 or 4 year deal at $9-10 million per year on the open market this offseason after rejecting a recent extension off from the Rockies. If that is true, I would be all over that. Since the start of 2019, he has pitched to a 4.50 ERA/4.25 FIP/111 ERA+ in 338 innings across 63 games (62 starts) with an 8.8 K9, 1.2 HR9, and 3.3 BB9, all while pitching in the thin air of Colorado half the time.

He's obviously no ace but he's not terribly old (finished the 2021 season at age 29) and he has proven that he can hang in a high offense environment like Coors Field, which I think would likely translate well to the AL East. I'd offer him 3 years at $9 million per, with a club option for a 4th year at $13 million with a $3 million buyout, making it either a 3/$30 million or 4/$40 million deal in total. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/jon-gray-has-reportedly-rejected-extension-offer-from-rockies.html

I think you forgot to add the 20% going to the worst team in baseball tax. 3/40 or 4/50 is probably what we’d need to offer. 

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2 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I don't think we'll be shopping from the top shelf of free agency this offseason either, but signing a quality veteran SP to a reasonable multiyear deal should still be on the table, imo. This year's crop of free agent starters is deeper than usual and being able to check off one rotation spot for the next 3 or 4 years, even if not one of the top of the rotation spots, would help the bullpen out and be one less thing to worry about as we begin to aspire towards playing meaningful games in a year or two.

I was kidding about Davies, he looks just about ready to turn back into a pumpkin lol.

 

Exactly!  Going into last spring with 1 reliable starter was a disaster waiting to happen.  Filling 2 rotation spots with rookies/injury recovery guys is a tall order.  The O's were trying to fill 4 spots that way.  It was a fool's bet to think that Felix and Harvey could fill rotation spots.  No, Harvey wasn't the worst pickup, but he had to have a good 2nd half to get his ERA near 6.  The Dodgers have about 10 starters that are better than any O's starter other than Means.  They really benefitted from that depth this year.  The way that pitchers get hurt, a major league club should never go into a season w/ less than 7 starters.  I'm not included guys who had mediocre AA seasons or returning from major arm surgery or haven't had a good season in 5 years in that number.  If you want to lose 110 games, then last year's starting rotation in the spring was a good was to do that. 

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3 hours ago, waroriole said:

I think you forgot to add the 20% going to the worst team in baseball tax. 3/40 or 4/50 is probably what we’d need to offer. 

That did occur to me, but I am not so sure that 3 or 4 years at (effectively) $10 million per year wouldn't be a competitive finalist offer for him regardless of the source. This is the deepest starting pitching free agent class in recent memory and Gray arguably doesn't even crack the top 10 with Scherzer, Kershaw, Gausman, Stroman, DeSclafani, Ray, Rodon, E-Rod, Verlander, Matz, Wood, etc. all out there as well (plus whoever becomes available on the trade market).

But if he gets better offers to pitch elsewhere, so be it. 

3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If you want to lose 110 games, then last year's starting rotation in the spring was a good was to do that. 

I doubt losing 110 games was actually the plan heading into the season.

The real plan was probably just to lose more than everyone else, regardless of what number that worked to be in the end 😉

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On 10/24/2021 at 6:57 PM, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I was kidding about Davies, he looks just about ready to turn back into a pumpkin lol.

 

I know you were kidding, but there was a discussion I think a couple weeks ago about whether or not the O's should go after Davies, and there was actually some support for doing it and paying him a significant amount of money.  

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1 hour ago, Ruzious said:

I know you were kidding, but there was a discussion I think a couple weeks ago about whether or not the O's should go after Davies, and there was actually some support for doing it and paying him a significant amount of money.  

I’ve always been a Davies fan, but the only way I’d go after him this year is if he’s costing almost nothing.   He was truly terrible in 2021, with an xERA even worse than his actual .5.76 ERA.   Seems like he really struggled with his command this year, suddenly walking 4.6 per 9, compared to his historical 2.6 in prior seasons.   But even before this, he’d had two straight seasons where his xERA exceeded his actual ERA by a good margin.   

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15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve always been a Davies fan, but the only way I’d go after him this year is if he’s costing almost nothing.   He was truly terrible in 2021, with an xERA even worse than his actual .5.76 ERA.   Seems like he really struggled with his command this year, suddenly walking 4.6 per 9, compared to his historical 2.6 in prior seasons.   But even before this, he’d had two straight seasons where his xERA exceeded his actual ERA by a good margin.   

Check your posts on Davies in September 3rd in the Eduardo Rodriquez thread - starting on page 3.     

 

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’ve always been a Davies fan, but the only way I’d go after him this year is if he’s costing almost nothing.   He was truly terrible in 2021, with an xERA even worse than his actual .5.76 ERA.   Seems like he really struggled with his command this year, suddenly walking 4.6 per 9, compared to his historical 2.6 in prior seasons.   But even before this, he’d had two straight seasons where his xERA exceeded his actual ERA by a good margin.   


Wow, if he was “truly terrible” at 5.76 ERA what was Harvey, Akin or any other Oriole’s pitcher not named Means?

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19 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:


Wow, if he was “truly terrible” at 5.76 ERA what was Harvey, Akin or any other Oriole’s pitcher not named Means?

Even worse...obviously. I agree with Frobby on this one. Of course, you take him if he's basically free. He's an upgrade to the guys (at least most of them) in house that are also basically free. To me, he's a lot closer to a Matt Harvey type than some like E-Rod. Though it would be interesting if the Orioles bring back both Davies and E-Rod. I don't see it happening, but would be fun, right?

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25 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Desclafini off the board, back to the Giants for 3/$36M. I thought he might have made an interesting target for us. Good deal for the Giants. I am a little surprised he couldn't get a 4th year somewhere.

That would have been an awful contract for the Os.  Not much better for the Giants.

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