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Baseball America #2 system

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9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

My question is where would it be ranked without those 2.  

I think that’s more of a discussion point especially for the crowd that believes we are deep and Elias has done amazing things building the system.

Personally, I feel it would be in the 8-12 range without those 2 which is still very good imo….but those 2 definitely skew things.

And btw, that’s fine.  I would rather have the 2 elite prospects vs 5-10 Solid guys.  

Every team's placement in these rankings is likely to be skewed by their top 2 or 3 prospects.  But, I absolutely agree with you about preferring 2 elite over 5-10 solid prospects.

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3 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

I hope Grayson starts 30 games next year and about 25 of them are in the Show, but it isn't inconceivable with a ball adjustment snag or an injury, he ends 2022 under 50 MLB innings.    Kjerstad 2022 will be like Mancini 2021 - playing at all will be its own success.

A next offseason list still with both high school pitchers, Kjerstad returned, Cowser developed and Green backfilling Rutschman I suppose isn't impossible.

I hear ya.  I prefaced the Kjerstad statement with an 'if', it's a huge question mark, but a lottery ticket that will be fun to watch play out.   I'm hoping for best case scenario that he's fully healthy and productive so it'll be like adding another first rounder to the system.  I'm assuming GRod is up next season killing his prospect status.   But with a productive Kjerstad,  1.1 coming in, Latin influence, and players from last two years drafts having success it seems the system could be in better shape next year than it is this year.   (this is a pipe dream scenario - the orioles give me nothing else to work with)

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10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

You joke but his plan could be to go college pitcher heavy at the top of the draft.  You never know. 

I was only MOSTLY joking 😉

It actually wouldn't surprise me if Elias selected 75% pitchers or more in the next draft. 

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13 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I hear ya.  I prefaced the Kjerstad statement with an 'if', it's a huge question mark, but a lottery ticket that will be fun to watch play out.   I'm hoping for best case scenario that he's fully healthy and productive so it'll be like adding another first rounder to the system.  I'm assuming GRod is up next season killing his prospect status.   But with a productive Kjerstad,  1.1 coming in, Latin influence, and players from last two years drafts having success it seems the system could be in better shape next year than it is this year.   (this is a pipe dream scenario - the orioles give me nothing else to work with)

Yes. Yes it is. 

I think the Orioles system could still be a solid this time next year, but if the team promotes Adley and GRod and loses both of them in the rankings, it will be hard pressed for the team to not slide back a few spots in the rankings even with a healthy Hall pitching well in AAA, a healthy Kjerstad tearing it up, Coswer rising quickly and the 1:1 pick. On the other side, if Hall starts showing himself as more of a reliever, or Kjerstad doesn't come back, or Cowser struggles at the higher levels, we could see a huge drop in the rankings even with the 1:1 pick.

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3 minutes ago, Chaka Garcia said:

I hoping guys like Jean Pinto, Coby Mayo, Rangel and Moises Hernandez make big leaps next year to make up the slack.

Moises Ramirez?

Stiven Acevedo and Mishal Deson also could factor in.   I suspect Rangel, Ramirez, Acevedo, and Deson will all be at Delmarva next year.    If Kjerstad comes back, plus one of the top 3 picks in the draft, the system could conceivable make up for the promotion of GRod and Rutschman although the system probably still drops with those two top heavy prospects gone from the list.      Plus, on paper, this will probably be a very strong J2 class as well.

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4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Moises Ramirez?

Stiven Acevedo and Mishal Deson also could factor in.   I suspect Rangel, Ramirez, Acevedo, and Deson will all be at Delmarva next year.    If Kjerstad comes back, plus one of the top 3 picks in the draft, the system could conceivable make up for the promotion of GRod and Rutschman although the system probably still drops with those two top heavy prospects gone from the list.      Plus, on paper, this will probably be a very strong J2 class as well.

Next year's 1-1 should replace Grayson on the lists. 

As for the j2 class, what makes you think it will be "Very strong"?  I'm hoping they have worked their way up to "average". 

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12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Next year's 1-1 should replace Grayson on the lists. 

As for the j2 class, what makes you think it will be "Very strong"?  I'm hoping they have worked their way up to "average".

I said on paper and I meant relative to prior Oriole J2 classes based on the fact that we apparently are in agreement with a top 20 rated kid.  Whether it, or prior classes, are average, below average, or above average will be determined by time. 

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13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I said on paper and I meant relative to prior Oriole J2 classes based on the fact that we apparently are in agreement with a top 20 rated kid.  Whether it, or prior classes, are average, below average, or above average will be determined by time. 

If we are talking about the Orioles farm ranking compared to other teams than I think we have to look at the J2 class compared to other teams.

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If we are talking about the Orioles farm ranking compared to other teams than I think we have to look at the J2 class compared to other teams.

Go ahead. Be my guest.

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Let me rephrase, counselor, as I get prepared for more cross examination.  Our system, on paper, will improve a bit with a stronger J2 class, on paper, than usual based on one of the highest bonus players we have ever signed there.  A J2 class probably has a negligible effect on farm system rankings in its initial year.

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

If we are talking about the Orioles farm ranking compared to other teams than I think we have to look at the J2 class compared to other teams.

I think that a deep dive into the J2 class would be fine.  But, international prospects are already included in the farm system rankings.  Those rankings are not simply a ranking of domestic draft prospects (Rule 4), but of all prospects currently in the system.  Hopefully, we will continue to sign better international prospects that will help our system to continue to produce high quality players for the Orioles or for use in trades.  We'll be better than #1.  We'll be #1'er.

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19 hours ago, emmett16 said:

But with a productive Kjerstad,  1.1 coming in, Latin influence, and players from last two years drafts having success it seems the system could be in better shape next year than it is this year.  

Maybe not in some kind of cumulative statistical sense, but our farm system will be optimized when:

1. International prospects are at every level.

2. We have balance between hitting/pitching.

3. We have top flight prospects.

We'll take a step back in #3, most likely, but should be able to replace at least one of the top flight guys with the #1/2 overall pick. The international prospects will begin working their way into the FCL/Low A range, so that will improve. 

The question is pitching and whether Elias has a working plan for that. I don't have a clue whether his approach will work. We can only hope.

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4 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Maybe not in some kind of cumulative statistical sense, but our farm system will be optimized when:

1. International prospects are at every level.

2. We have balance between hitting/pitching.

3. We have top flight prospects.

We'll take a step back in #3, most likely, but should be able to replace at least one of the top flight guys with the #1/2 overall pick. The international prospects will begin working their way into the FCL/Low A range, so that will improve. 

The question is pitching and whether Elias has a working plan for that. I don't have a clue whether his approach will work. We can only hope.

I think it’s clear that Elias is letting other teams develop his future pitchers and going with hitters. I mean we spent top draft capital on all of one pitcher during his tenure and he immediately needed TJ. 
 

The system will stay top 5 even after AR and GR graduate because we will add the #1 overall pick, plus have the biggest bonus pool in 2022. I really don’t see next year’s team not giving yet another top 5 draft pick. The MILB system will be highly ranked for nice little bit of time. 
 

Also, we’re going to have the #1 pick in the rule 5 draft. That usually is a top 30 prospect. We’ll also likely add a 2nd player in the rule 5. 
 

We have the #1 waiver wire spot all offseason in the AL. That is huge. We might trade Mancini and Santander to add to our MILB system. We also just signed to players that appear to be consensus top 50 int’l players. 
 

The question is, when does all this make a difference at the MLB level?  2023?  2024?

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