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Orioles farm system ranked no. 2

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5 minutes ago, interloper said:

That's actually kind of an interesting question. A 20-player trade where you get 18 of the Orioles' top 20 prospects. I mean... I dunno you'd be getting Kjerstad, DL Hall, Henderson, Westburg, Baumann. But after those guys it really starts to drop off a cliff with guys like Lowther, Diaz, A. Hall, Bradish, etc. 

Obviously I'm leaning "no" here, but a few more studs in the top 20 and it's not nearly the slam dunk it seems like at first.

Anybody acting like it's a slam dunk is just wrong.

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I say no.

First of all, as interloper correctly pointed out, you have the issues of Hall and Kjerstad.

Secondly, I am a believer in elite talent.  I don’t think anyone else is an elite talent outside of Hall and for him to be elite a lot of things have to happen, namely health and availability.

I figure we are lucky if 5 of those 18 become true impact guys at the ML Level.  So then it’s a 5 or so for 2.  
 

I am taking the elite talent but it’s definitely a good question to think about.  

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3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I say no.

First of all, as interloper correctly pointed out, you have the issues of Hall and Kjerstad.

Secondly, I am a believer in elite talent.  I don’t think anyone else is an elite talent outside of Hall and for him to be elite a lot of things have to happen, namely health and availability.

I figure we are lucky if 5 of those 18 become true impact guys at the ML Level.  So then it’s a 5 or so for 2.  
 

I am taking the elite talent but it’s definitely a good question to think about.  

You get Wieters and Matusz.

I get Tillman, Arrieta, Reimold, Britton, David Hernandez, and Caleb Joseph.

I'm pretty sure I take the second group.

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8 minutes ago, interloper said:

That's actually kind of an interesting question. A 20-player trade where you get 18 of the Orioles' top 20 prospects. I mean... I dunno you'd be getting Kjerstad, DL Hall, Henderson, Westburg, Baumann. But after those guys it really starts to drop off a cliff with guys like Lowther, Diaz, A. Hall, Bradish, etc. 

Obviously I'm leaning "no" here, but a few more studs in the top 20 and it's not nearly the slam dunk it seems like at first.

I would make that trade in a snap.

Baseball is a numbers game. Wasn't too long ago that the O's had the #2 prospect in all of baseball..  also a catcher... A real "can't miss" guy. Looked great in minors. His career WAR was 18.

Unless they're proven in the majors, I think you want a truckload of top 20 guys over a couple "can't miss" guys.

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Per Fangraphs valuation system, Rutschman and Grayson are worth about $170M while the rest are worth about $200M. Definitely an interesting question. I'd be inclined to go with Grayson and Rutschman with a roster full of replacement guys than a whole lot of unknowns. 

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5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You get Wieters and Matusz.

I get Tillman, Arrieta, Reimold, Britton, David Hernandez, and Caleb Joseph.

I'm pretty sure I take the second group.

Yep…definitely a way it could turn out.

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3 minutes ago, incubus said:

No mention whatsoever of Kjerstadt and we still moved up. Crazy.

They passed the Rays because they promoted Wander.

If Adley were in the majors the O's wouldn't be ranked this highly.

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2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep

Let’s put it another way.

Would trade Adley and Grayson for the rest of the Os top 20 prospects?

So, here’s how Fangraphs would approach this:

As a 70 FV position player, Adley has excess value estimated at $112 mm.   As a 60 FV pitcher, Grayson’s excess value is estimated at $60 mm.   So, combined that’s $172 mm.

On the other side of the ledger you have:

1 55 pitcher @$34 mm = $34 mm

3 50 hitters @$28 mm = $84 mm

4 45 hitters @$6 mm = $24 mm

2 45 pitchers @$4 mm = $8 mm

6 40+ hitters @$4 mm = $24 mm

4 40 hitters @$2 mm = $8 mm

Thats $182 mm total value.   

So, you’d rather have the 18 guys, but just barely.  And I think you could argue that with the medical risks associated with Hall ($34 mm) and Kjerstad ($28 mm), maybe Rutschman/Rodriguez is the better bet.   But on the other hand, a serious injury to either of R/R would reduce their combined value rather drastically, whereas no one injury can reduced the combined value of the 18 guys by more than 15% or so.   
 

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, here’s how Fangraphs would approach this:

As a 70 FV position player, Adley has excess value estimated at $112 mm.   As a 60 FV pitcher, Grayson’s excess value is estimated at $60 mm.   So, combined that’s $172 mm.

On the other side of the ledger you have:

1 55 pitcher @$34 mm = $34 mm

3 50 hitters @$28 mm = $84 mm

4 45 hitters @$6 mm = $24 mm

2 45 pitchers @$4 mm = $8 mm

6 40+ hitters @$4 mm = $24 mm

4 40 hitters @$2 mm = $8 mm

Thats $182 mm total value.   

So, you’d rather have the 18 guys, but just barely.  And I think you could argue that with the medical risks associated with Hall ($34 mm) and Kjerstad ($28 mm), maybe Rutschman/Rodriguez is the better bet.   But on the other hand, a serious injury to either of R/R would reduce their combined value rather drastically, whereas no one injury can reduced the combined value of the 18 guys by more than 15% or so.   
 

Why would you rather have the other 18 if they only account for 12M more in value?  Seems to me you could find 18 other prospects and get that much.

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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Why would you rather have the other 18 if they only account for 12M more in value?  Seems to me you could find 18 other prospects and get that much.

I don’t think prospects with excess value are freely available.   You have to trade something of value to get them.   

I think we all understand anyway that these FV grades may work out to the assigned value on average, but in reality players over- or under-perform those values all the time.   So despite the attempt to use a systematic approach to valuing the prospects, it’s all still an educated guess.   
 

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think prospects with excess value are freely available.   You have to trade something of value to get them.   

I think we all understand anyway that these FV grades may work out to the assigned value on average, but in reality players over- or under-perform those values all the time.   So despite the attempt to use a systematic approach to valuing the prospects, it’s all still an educated guess.   
 

I don’t think it would be that hard to find 18 prospects in trades, draft, etc….that can produce 12M in value in an evaluation like this.

Put it this way…I would bet it’s a lot harder to find 2 that would get 170M in value vs who have 12M

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3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think it would be that hard to find 18 prospects in trades, draft, etc….that can produce 12M in value in an evaluation like this.

Put it this way…I would bet it’s a lot harder to find 2 that would get 170M in value vs who have 12M

Going by Fangraphs’ system, you literally couldn’t find two prospects worth a combined $172 mm right now if one of them isn’t Rutschman.   And the other one would have to be Rodriguez or Matt Manning, the only other pitcher they grade a 60.   Grade 60 hitters are worth a little less than grade 60 pitchers per their calculations ($55 mm vs. $60 mm).  

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Going by Fangraphs’ system, you literally couldn’t find two prospects worth a combined $172 mm right now if one of them isn’t Rutschman.   And the other one would have to be Rodriguez or Matt Manning, the only other pitcher they grade a 60.   Grade 60 hitters are worth a little less than grade 60 pitchers per their calculations ($55 mm vs. $60 mm).  

Right…which is why I’m taking the top 2..far harder to find that talent, on any level vs the middling guys.

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