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Elias: “...possibly as soon as this off-season, we will ratchet up those investments.......”

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4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm remaining skeptical about this offseason because every offseason has practically been a joke.  

I like that quote from Elias.  I've pointed out before that he's mastered "GM speak" which is to say a lot and say nothing at all at the same time.  This quote might fall into that, although it seems to give away more than he usually does.

It’s a bit of a Rorschach test quote.  I thought Roch’s take was interesting.   He introduced the Elias quote with this:

“The Orioles aren’t ready to commit to chasing more expensive free agents over the winter in order to upgrade the roster.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2021/08/elias-we-are-very-much-on-track-with-what-were-trying-to-do.html

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We have reached the point where the rubber will meet the road as they say.  Much of the investment to date is not really visible and that leaves lots of room for us to speculate.  And as everyone knows the Orioles have intentionally "not been focusing" on the major league results.

As talent from the farm arrives, we will get to see a couple of things we have not seen to date.  One, we will see how the GM does in making major league moves.  But two, and more importantly, we come to the part that not many people really have confidence in...

What will ownership allow.

I don't know, how these two things will work.  But I think the worst of the rebuild is behind us and succeed or fail...with AR and Grayson coming, it is time to see what can be done when focusing on Major league results.

 

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

If he doesn't get a Morton-like veteran starter or two in the offseason, I really don't care what else he does.  I'll consider the offseason a failure.  

Thanks OsFanSinceThe80's for the Hometown Papers remembrance of early Elias-Correa.   I see then that 15-years-old is what Elias would admit to...I suppose that would still be 3 years lead on a guy eligible for the domestic draft.   I would guess this summer Koby is recording exit velocities on tweens.

I don't believe the Luhnow/Elias/Astroball/McKinsey group believes in buying outside pitchers more than a couple few years at a time, and that Franchise Position player cornerstones fit the models better.

https://theathletic.com/1056165/2019/07/17/the-astros-opened-baseball-ops-to-mckinsey-consultants-from-scouting-to-rd-and-the-farm/

A viable Correa bid though is Springer-ish, and we don't know if:

A. the sons will put $25M into someone or someones for 2022.   They might not know until they see the Revenue Sharing forecasts, or they might be required to by a floor.

B. even if they put up/are forced to put up that $$$, would Elias spread it out like the Royals last year, or try for one shiny thing?   I feel given position player depth, and the belief the good Adley teams will get important pitchers in July that Correa is a better fit than say Jon Gray and Kyle Seager, or Mike Minor and Carlos Santana and Greg Holland and Michael Taylor and Hanser Alberto.

I have felt the 10-15 best Orioles would have August and September to make a closing argument they are a relevant place for a proven star to spend their FA years, and Correa's 2-year youth edge relative to Story, apart from the personal history, made him the best remaining fit in the 2022 SS class once Lindor picked the Mets.   

I did expect Rutschman would have that opportunity here now, but whether it is Keegan Akin's fault or the pending CBA, it is what it is.  Fernando Tatis had zero MLB experience when the Padres bid for and won Machado, and I'm sure given Elias-Correa's relationship, he'll be able to acquaint him with who Adley Rutschman is.   My memory is Manny's agent did some of the Padres legwork informing him their future would not be a waste of his time.

Assuming the 2022 club does not have Correa money, then I'm with Moose, and think the Sutcliffe character becomes the best attainable fit, but I think the Syndergaard pillow is much better for where we are than the Stroman/Ray type guy.   Ray is tracking towards a QO (if they still exist), and can you imagine Elias burning draft capital for a Career Year guy?   Stroman has worked through the QO tax and can now choose the next 4-5 years of his baseball life, but any Stroman/Correa sized outlays should lean Year 5 over Year 1.

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Correa is a fantastic player but he's always hurt.  He's played over 150 games in his career exactly once and hasn't even come close in the other years.  

But @OrioleDogbrings up some good points.  Sutcliffe would be good for what we're trying to do next year, though I'm not sure if a comp like that exists in today's game.  

Someone please rep him more for the "Syndergaard pillow" line.  Brilliance.  

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People are going to hear what they want to hear. If you think the ownership is looking to move the team and Elias is looking to jump ship at the earliest opportunity every quote can be interpreted to fit that narrative. Everything I see is consistent with a long term plan to implement something like the Tampa model but that's what I want to believe. I have no reason to doubt the signals he is sending but also can't rule out the conspiracy theory given the organizations track record.

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We could trade Mancini. Use that saved salary, and give Carlos Correa huge deal that I cannot even guess at. 10/300??? 
 

We then accept the fact that we will be terrible in 2022, but we’ll also have the #1 pick in hand with a phenom in Greene there. Then hope that alot of our bats that are with full season clubs now, will be ready at some point in 2023. 

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3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Correa is a fantastic player but he's always hurt.

This is the next disaster contract waiting to happen. Dude can't stay healthy and put up a .709 OPS with 5 homers last year and .728 in 2018. This is not someone you break the bank on.

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14 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I believe Elias wants to sign players. What I'm less sure of is the Angelos family ready to open up their wallets after Davis, Trumbo and Cobb contracts being total busts. 

 

Presumably, it has been acknowledged that those were all stupid contracts. Stupid, completely unjustifiable, and made by people who are no longer here.

I think it’s safe to assume that we’re not in that kind of danger anymore. Maybe a different kind of danger but not that.

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1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

The quote is "ratchet up". I would not read Correa into that, and that's if we take Elias at his word.

This is well said.  I think Elias will increase the spending this offseason.  But that doesnt mean 9 figure deals.

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16 minutes ago, Aglets said:

This is well said.  I think Elias will increase the spending this offseason.  But that doesnt mean 9 figure deals.

I agree. I don't think they'll go above a $10M deal, let alone 9 figures.

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