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Elias: “...possibly as soon as this off-season, we will ratchet up those investments.......”

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I'd really like to ask Elias this question:

"You've outlined in general terms your plan for rebuilding the Orioles, without saying anything about the expected timetable. For 2021, that plan emphasized adding and developing talent in the minor leagues. You haven't talked much about the 2021 Orioles, who are having a terrible year. They're the worst pitching and second-worst offensive team in the AL, and their defense isn't so hot. They have the worst record and the worst run differential in MLB. Attendance is lower than every other team's other than the three with stadium issues (A's, Rays and Jays) and Miami. Is the performance of the 2021 Orioles in line with what you expected before the season? Is the 2021 Oriole team's poor play consistent with the rebuilding plan? Has the rebuilding plan been modified, or will it be modified, on account of how bad this year's Oriole team has been?"

I'm not expecting a response from Mile Elias. I would appreciate it if some of those who have expressed a preference for, or at least comfort with, a 2021 team finishing with MLB's worst record would say whether a team this bad it what you have hoped for, and whether you think the Houston-based rebuilding plan is moving ahead just fine, unaffected by the Orioles' terrible play.   

 

 

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I think what a lot of fans seem to miss is, unless this club can start developing it's own talent, laying out big contracts for free agents is just a waste of money. The young guys who are mostly failing now were not acquired by Elias. The Elias guys are coming so when they get here we will see. Stop blaming Elias for what was done before he got here. 

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39 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I'd really like to ask Elias this question:

"You've outlined in general terms your plan for rebuilding the Orioles, without saying anything about the expected timetable. For 2021, that plan emphasized adding and developing talent in the minor leagues. You haven't talked much about the 2021 Orioles, who are having a terrible year. They're the worst pitching and second-worst offensive team in the AL, and their defense isn't so hot. They have the worst record and the worst run differential in MLB. Attendance is lower than every other team's other than the three with stadium issues (A's, Rays and Jays) and Miami. Is the performance of the 2021 Orioles in line with what you expected before the season? Is the 2021 Oriole team's poor play consistent with the rebuilding plan? Has the rebuilding plan been modified, or will it be modified, on account of how bad this year's Oriole team has been?"

I'm not expecting a response from Mile Elias. I would appreciate it if some of those who have expressed a preference for, or at least comfort with, a 2021 team finishing with MLB's worst record would say whether a team this bad it what you have hoped for, and whether you think the Houston-based rebuilding plan is moving ahead just fine, unaffected by the Orioles' terrible play.   

 

 

I think "expected timetable" is a creation of too many armchair GMs on sports message boards.  It becomes easy to fall into the trap of projecting who should be called up, when they should be called up and how they'll produce.  It is an exercise in believing that everything will go according to plan. 

It doesn't take into account:

  • Injuries
  • Poor performance
  • Great performance by players you didn't expect (looking at you, Mullins)
  • Trades
  • Free agent signings
  • Other teams in the division getting better
  • Other teams in the division getting worse

Simply put, there are too many variables for the "expected timetable" argument.  Now I think Elias probably does have projections for when he'd expect players to arrive in the majors but also needs to remain flexible because of everything that needs to break right for him and his franchise.  

We laud ballplayers who don't get overconfident when they're going good and on a hot streak and don't get too low on themselves when they're doing poorly and slumping.  A good GM, IMO, is no different.  The mentality for baseball isn't relegated for the men on the field, it extends into the front office.  

I don't believe Elias expected the team to be this bad this year, I don't think any of us did.  But I also wouldn't expect Elias to start hopping around and switching up his plan based on how bad this season has been, either. 

Just based on the roster and talent level, anyone looking at this team at the beginning of the season had to know this was a last place team in the AL East.  Everyone can agree on that.  Elias wouldn't ever admit to that, but he's been around the game long enough to know.  

So if we were expected to finish in last place to start the season and are in last place this late into August, what are we wringing our hands about?  The degree of severity of being in last place that we find ourselves in?  If we were looking at 53 wins, would we be freaking out as much?  If we came in at 99 losses, dodging the hideous 100 loss season, yet still in last place, would we be complaining as much?  What if we lost 102 games instead?  Where's the demarcation point between being comfortable in last place and being outraged by it?

Elias isn't going to freak out, he's not going to pound his fists, he's not going to give any of us any controversial soundbites to chew on.  He's a professional.  Leave the the rest to us.

In regards to the Jays, it does my heart good to know that they're having stadium issues.  I always loved that Skydome opened in '89 and was considered the future and all of a sudden looked like a dinosaur 3 years later when OPACY opened up and set the trend.  

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3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't believe Elias expected the team to be this bad this year, I don't think any of us did.  But I also wouldn't expect Elias to start hopping around and switching up his plan based on how bad this season has been, either. 

Just based on the roster and talent level, anyone looking at this team at the beginning of the season had to know this was a last place team in the AL East.  Everyone can agree on that.  Elias wouldn't ever admit to that, but he's been around the game long enough to know.  

So if we were expected to finish in last place to start the season and are in last place this late into August, what are we wringing our hands about?  The degree of severity of being in last place that we find ourselves in?  If we were looking at 53 wins, would we be freaking out as much?  If we came in at 99 losses, dodging the hideous 100 loss season, yet still in last place, would we be complaining as much?  What if we lost 102 games instead?  Where's the demarcation point between being comfortable in last place and being outraged by it?

You bring up good points - but I don't think the concern is that the O's are in last place. They were certainly expected to be a bad team.

The issue is that Elias & Co. haven't really shown any ability to find talent outside of marquee draft picks. Add that to a MLB team that is struggling with basic fundamentals, young pitchers universally showing no progress or success under Chris Holt, and a farm system that quite frankly isn't a deep or good as the #2 Ranking suggests. The results of this rebuild so far do not justify the tanking Elias has put the team, the franchise, and what's left of the fanbase through. 

This team is absolutely terrible, and the last few years have been historically terrible - which is saying something for a team that had fourteen losing seasons in a row. The "plan" may be the "plan," but ultimately - the O's can't suck forever, they will need to draw fans again. Elias will need to figure out a way to show improvement in 2022 - otherwise he's going to be out of the job.

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