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Bowden’s top 50

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40 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

On the flip side, the Astros signed Singleton (Jonathan?) to a multi year deal before he had played a game for them and he became zippo.   

Good deep dig.  Looks like that was for 5 years and $10M guaranteed.  Still doesn't seem like much risk to me.   Also you are talking about a guy like Adley who is ranked the top prospect in all of baseball drafted at 1:1.    Singleton was taken in the 8th round although it's true he was a highly thought-of prospect.

I'm clearly not advising we do this for all or even most of our top prospects.   Just the absolute cream of the crop can't-miss guys.    I suppose all of this is kind of moot anyway until we get details of the new CBA.   That could change economic incentives considerably for both sides.

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11 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Good deep dig.  Looks like that was for 5 years and $10M guaranteed.  Still doesn't seem like much risk to me.   Also you are talking about a guy like Adley who is ranked the top prospect in all of baseball drafted at 1:1.    Singleton was taken in the 8th round although it's true he was a highly thought-of prospect.

I'm clearly not advising we do this for all or even most of our top prospects.   Just the absolute cream of the crop can't-miss guys.    I suppose all of this is kind of moot anyway until we get details of the new CBA.   That could change economic incentives considerably for both sides.

I am not against signing young players to long term deals.  As I recall, Cleveland had a lot of success with that as well.    You're right, the 10M gambled on Singleton was peanuts in the grand scheme of things.   I was just pointing out that there is some risk to doing it.

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3 hours ago, Explosivo said:

I disagree. We will likely be a blend of Astros/Rays/Giants. You keep a guy like Adley who is a true differentiation to all other catchers. The Giants have done this with Buster. We should do the same.

The market has changed.   Posey signed a 9/167m contract in 2013.  Today that contract may be 300m if Adley is the kind of player that he is projected to be.

The O's may not be able to afford that kind of contract because of the kind of market that Baltimore is.  That is why  Elias keeps mentioning that Tampa model of trading players as they get expensive.  That is why he says that the Orioles need to change the way they do business from the way they did in the past.

Posey's contract began when he became eligible for arbitration at age 26.   Adley is on  a pace to be one year behind that at age 27.

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9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The market has changed.   Posey signed a 9/167m contract in 2013.  Today that contract may be 300m if Adley is the kind of player that he is projected to be.

The O's may not be able to afford that kind of contract because of the kind of market that Baltimore is.  That is why  Elias keeps mentioning that Tampa model of trading players as they get expensive.  That is why he says that the Orioles need to change the way they do business from the way they did in the past.

Posey's contract began when he became eligible for arbitration at age 26.   Adley is on  a pace to be one year behind that at age 27.

No one is paying 300M for a catcher, especially at that age.

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

The market has changed.   Posey signed a 9/167m contract in 2013.  Today that contract may be 300m if Adley is the kind of player that he is projected to be.

The O's may not be able to afford that kind of contract because of the kind of market that Baltimore is.  That is why  Elias keeps mentioning that Tampa model of trading players as they get expensive.  That is why he says that the Orioles need to change the way they do business from the way they did in the past.

Posey's contract began when he became eligible for arbitration at age 26.   Adley is on  a pace to be one year behind that at age 27.

 

54 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No one is paying 300M for a catcher, especially at that age.

The market hasn’t changed that much since 2013.   Per Fangraphs the market value of 1 WAR was about $7.4 mm in 2013 and it’s about $8.1 mm now.   So, 10% inflation in 8 years.    

Posey has been worth every penny of his contract.   We should be so lucky with Rutschman.   
 

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Based on the grades he gave Tork/Witt I’m surprised they weren’t flipped. Surprised Tork is above AR as well but I guess he doesn’t value the positional value and leadership as much.

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1 hour ago, survivedc said:

Based on the grades he gave Tork/Witt I’m surprised they weren’t flipped. Surprised Tork is above AR as well but I guess he doesn’t value the positional value and leadership as much.

Witt should be the #1 prospect in the game. 
 

Im Actually surprised Bowden has him #2.  I heard him on the radio a month or so ago saying he was the best prospect in the game.  I guess whatever strides Tork has gained since I heard that has changed his mind.

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4 hours ago, wildcard said:

 That is why  Elias keeps mentioning that Tampa model of trading players as they get expensive.  That is why he says that the Orioles need to change the way they do business from the way they did in the past.

As discussed in this thread, the Tampa model has included signing pre-arbitration players to extensions. Snell also was a pre-arbitration extension by the Rays. Changing the way the Orioles do business should not mean solely that the Orioles will trade players when they hit Arb 2 and Arb 3. It should also mean signing players to extensions before they reach that point because it provides surplus value to the team and makes the players more marketable if you want to trade them. The Orioles cannot continue to go year to year and be risk averse. In my opinion, that strategy (if you even call it a strategy) will not work.

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Yes. It’s dependent on the player, the roster, and the talent in the minors to replace that player. Evaluations of a player’s arc of quality is also very important. For players evaluated to have greater windows of potential quality years and who play prime positions (like catcher) it should be imperative to sign pre-arb deals. Again, look at the giants. You lock in players that differentiate your team and build around them. Good players beget good players.

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On 8/31/2021 at 4:56 PM, wildcard said:

The market has changed.   Posey signed a 9/167m contract in 2013.  Today that contract may be 300m if Adley is the kind of player that he is projected to be.

The O's may not be able to afford that kind of contract because of the kind of market that Baltimore is.  That is why  Elias keeps mentioning that Tampa model of trading players as they get expensive.  That is why he says that the Orioles need to change the way they do business from the way they did in the past.

Posey's contract began when he became eligible for arbitration at age 26.   Adley is on  a pace to be one year behind that at age 27.

Tampa is signing Wander Franco to an extension worth up to $223 million. A forward thinking franchise doesn’t just go through arbitration and trade players, it gets cost certainty and enhances a player’s value to the team and on the trade market. Elias should be doing this with Adley (but probably isn’t).

 

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It's like betting a 10 win parlay, winning the first 9 and then taking the payout from the casino instead of taking the chance on that final game.

Franco just guaranteed himself $185 million. In doing so, he might have cost himself $200 million more.

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