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Mountcastle talk

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1 hour ago, Riggodrill44 said:

You think Garcia is having a better rookie year because of WAR?  He's been trending down since the all star game. Mountcastle going to finish his rookie year with 30+ hr and 90 rbi.  If he played in NY ,he definitely would be the rookie of the year.

I'm of the belief (I don't think @Frobbywould agree with me, though, we've had this conversation before) that most award voters are going to heavily factor WAR within their decision making.  

These are national writers that are voting for these guys.  IMO, west coast and central writers who didn't get to see much of RMC could possibly be lazy and just vote for whoever has the highest WAR.  

If RMC somehow ends up with 30+ homers, I think he makes himself a more likely candidate, WAR be damned.  But his terrible start hampered him in this race, big time.

His terrible start/hot finish makes me wonder if he's a slow starter to begin with.  It will be interesting to see how he starts the 2022 season.

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49 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I think it's close, but Garcia playing mostly CF this season gives him the advantage.  Mountcastle's actually passed Garcia in OPS and OPS+, so I'd give him a small advantage on offense.  Mountcastle's really improved defensively, but he started out poorly on defense.  I'd rather have Mountcastle, but Garcia overall has had a little better rookie year.  

Yeah that is all correct, plus Garcia has been very consistent and he is apparently an excellent defender. The Rangers radio guys consider him at least a finalist for gold glove. Mountcastle has a minus -10.1 dWAR at Fangraphs. That’s for the whole season, I couldn’t find a specific breakdown at baseball reference, but his defense is just not good. Garcia is a more valuable player overall And the WAR reflect that.

Edited by Philip

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Means nothing in regards to the ROY race (not that RMC was going to win it anyway) but Garcia is 28 years old and is having the flukiest season we've seen in some time. Well, maybe besides Patrick Wisdom and his 40% (!) K rate as a 30 year old. In terms of players we can actually view as rookies with future potential, Mountcastle is easily in the top 5 this year. He's 1st in the AL in slugging, second in the AL in HR, 1st in the AL in OPS and 2nd in the AL in wRC+ behind only Arozarena. Ironically, if it weren't for the his own team's dreadful pitching, Mountcastle would probably clearly be the best AL rookie bat this year. I was also surprised to see that his K rate wasn't in the top 30 for qualified rookies according to Fangraphs. It's actually lower than Arozarena's. His walk rate is very low to be fair. 

He's played 150 total games at the big league level and has slashed .283/.332./.501 good for an .833 OPS and 124 wRC+. Best start for an Orioles rookie since when?

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2 hours ago, Philip said:

That cut/paste was garbled, and I wasn’t able to paste everything accurately. However the difference between WAR is significant and yes.”

Garcia has 29 home runs and 117 hits.

Mountcastle has 25 and 113, but in 40 fewer ABs. Garcia is hitting a bit better, but he’s a better all-round player

So far as offense goes, there’s a month to play so a lot could change.   We’ve seen many ROY battles decided by who had a hot or cold September.  Eddie Murray posted a 1.044 OPS with 9 HR, 26 RBI to beat out Mitchell Page, Cal Ripken posted .838 OPS with 7 HR, 21 RBI to beat out Kent Hrbek.  

I do think the fact that Mountcastle plays 1B/DH puts him at a big disadvantage.   
 

 

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1 hour ago, LTO's said:

He's played 150 total games at the big league level and has slashed .283/.332./.501 good for an .833 OPS and 124 wRC+. Best start for an Orioles rookie since when?

He is off to a slightly better start to his career than the vaunted Jay Gibbons. Through 150 games, Gibbons had 31 homers (1 more than Mountcastle) and slashed .250/.322/.495. Gibbons has the rWAR edge due to Mountcastle's misadventures in the outfield in April.

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3 hours ago, Riggodrill44 said:

You think Garcia is having a better rookie year because of WAR?  He's been trending down since the all star game. Mountcastle going to finish his rookie year with 30+ hr and 90 rbi.  If he played in NY ,he definitely would be the rookie of the year.

No I think Garcia has a solid WAR total because he's been a valuable player.  He's a very solid outfielder with an above-average bat.

Realistically Mountcastle isn't in the running for ROY unless he just destroys September.  He's hitting well now, but didn't early, and he has no positive defensive value.

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43 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

He is off to a slightly better start to his career than the vaunted Jay Gibbons. Through 150 games, Gibbons had 31 homers (1 more than Mountcastle) and slashed .250/.322/.495. Gibbons has the rWAR edge due to Mountcastle's misadventures in the outfield in April.

Gibbons never had a single season with an OPS+ equal to Mountcastle's career mark of 122, and Mountcastle was a year younger than Gibbons when he came up.

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22 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Gibbons never had a single season with an OPS+ equal to Mountcastle's career mark of 122, and Mountcastle was a year younger than Gibbons when he came up.

That's true. And I absolutely expect Mountcastle to have a better career than Gibbons.

That said, their first 150 games were quite similar.

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3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

That's true. And I absolutely expect Mountcastle to have a better career than Gibbons.

That said, their first 150 games were quite similar.

The eras in which they played were a bit different.  The average OPS was about 30 points higher when Gibbons played.   

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The eras in which they played were a bit different.  The average OPS was about 30 points higher when Gibbons played.   

I don't know what to tell you beyond what I have already said, Mountcastle has hit slightly better than Gibbons to this point in his career. Gibbons was actually quite good in his first 150 games. Gibbons .816 OPS in the first half of the 2002 season was good for 117 OPS+ and Mountcastle's .819 OPS this year is good for a 118 OPS+. Not exactly the deadball era compared to the steroid era.

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8 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I don't know what to tell you beyond what I have already said, Mountcastle has hit slightly better than Gibbons to this point in his career. Gibbons was actually quite good in his first 150 games. Gibbons .816 OPS in the first half of the 2002 season was good for 117 OPS+ and Mountcastle's .819 OPS this year is good for a 118 OPS+. Not exactly the deadball era compared to the steroid era.

Seems a little strange that you are choosing to evaluate half of the 2002 season for Gibbons compared to the 2021 season in its entirety for Ryan.   I guess I see why....since it makes the numbers look closer.

I have a radical proposal.    Let's see where Mountcastle ends up after September and compare two full seasons.

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9 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I don't know what to tell you beyond what I have already said, Mountcastle has hit slightly better than Gibbons to this point in his career. Gibbons was actually quite good in his first 150 games. Gibbons .816 OPS in the first half of the 2002 season was good for 117 OPS+ and Mountcastle's .819 OPS this year is good for a 118 OPS+. Not exactly the deadball era compared to the steroid era.

You don’t need to tell me anything beyond what you already said.   Gibbons was a pretty decent hitter.   He got hurt a lot and that hampered him at times.   Like you, I think Mountcastle is a little better, and hopefully, he’ll be healthier.  

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27 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Seems a little strange that you are choosing to evaluate half of the 2002 season for Gibbons compared to the 2021 season in its entirety for Ryan.   I guess I see why....since it makes the numbers look closer.

I have a radical proposal.    Let's see where Mountcastle ends up after September and compare two full seasons.

Of course the numbers look closer! That is the point! That is because Gibbons immediately became a (much) lousier player after this point in his career. Although he had a brief resurgence in his contract year (wonder how that happened!)

I could only find OPS+ data for Gibbons for either half seasons or full seasons. Gibbons slowed down significantly after reaching 160 games or so, and the 2002 half season went through game 155 of Gibbons' career, so it seemed the most apt comparison, since that is the point to which they were being compared.

Regardless, I was mostly looking at that period to show that their similar OPS numbers produced similar OPS+ numbers. I already manually calculated Gibbons' OPS through 150 games to show that his numbers were close to Mountcastle's. 

I have little doubt Mountcastle will have a better career. And I have no doubt Mountcastle's numbers through two seasons will be better. Just trying to remind people that Jay Gibbons was (also) good once, and to this exact point in their careers, they were quite similar hitters (although Gibbons was a year older).

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4 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Of course the numbers look closer! That is the point! That is because Gibbons immediately became a (much) lousier player almost immediately after this point in his career.

I could only find OPS+ data for Gibbons for either half seasons or full seasons. Gibbons slowed down significantly after reaching 160 games or so, and the 2002 half season went through game 155 of Gibbons' career, so it seemed the most apt comparison, since that is the point to which they were being compared.

I have little doubt Mountcastle will have a better career. And I have no doubt Mountcastle's numbers through two seasons will be better. Just trying to remind people that Jay Gibbons was (also) good once, and to this exact point in their careers, they were quite similar hitters (although Gibbons was a year older).

Gibbons was also enhanced. 

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