Also logic. If you're building a team With the complete faith and belief that your top farm system is ready to go as early as this year and then really ready in 2 years then you need a 5 year plan. Getting a 27 year old star now falls into that 5 year window. Waiting until year 3 just means you possibly lost a golden chance in there and might be forced to make a stupid trade to shore up an exposed hole that could have been filled years prior if you had a real 5 year plan (ERod as example).
It's not the losing. It's the no clear foresight to attempt to stop the losing. This team needs a SS and 3B. This team has no future prospects on the horizon (someone can emerge but I'm not holding my breath). This is an off-season to get a SS who you might not be able to get in 2 years. Get them now. If there is another target then fine, but players like Odor have no place in a big plan unless Correa is the main piece this year. You can get an Odor anytime.
The 29-30 drop can be attributed to the 25/26 jump imo. Some guys hit their physical peak early, but regress first as well.
Also not related would be the mental. Most of these guys get their big payday here and probably slack year one as their their life has changed.