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RZNJ

A trade exercise

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47 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ok, so lets' talk about Gallen.   He's a promising young pitcher who is already establishing himself in the majors.   Is he worth a Bradish, Baumann, Stowers package?     That's two pitchers with good arms who are both question marks as future starters and a potential power bat in the Arizona outfield.    If not, can we make a deal without including D.L. Hall?

Bret Sayre is a baseball internet guy I like.   One thing you can say for fantasy analysts is they rank players without hometown bias.   He's been publishing monthly updates to both MLB rankings and pure prospects all year at BP.   Here's the AUG21 ranks for some MLB'ers.

60 Mullins, 90 Chisholm, 91, Rutschman, 102 Gallen, 108 Grayson, 117 Mancini, 122 Mountcastle, 179 Means

I understand those ranks to basically be expected fantasy stat production over the next few years.   Of course in Fantasyland no one cares about real life $$$/WAR or contract status.

His Oriole AUG21 prospect ranks I'll chunk into three groups of four.   I am guessing if we can cajole ARZ to accept four quarters instead of a dollar, after our Top 12 guys stopping having much marginal value.   I assume we don't want the dollar for dollar Rutschman-Gallen or Rodriguez-Gallen deal.

A - Adley, Grayson, Hall, Gunnar

B - Cowser, Kjerstad, Westburg, Mayo

C - Norby, Trimble, Harvey, Stowers

What would you say to an ARZ ask of Cowser, Mayo and Stowers for Gallen?    I'm not sure how much currency Oriole pitchers like Baumann and Bradish might have in the market this offseason, even if you could pry Bradish from Matt Blood's cold, dead fingers.

When I look around MLB for expensive pitchers who come 2022 or 2023 won't want to be where they are now and I get past Chris Sale, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner is another famous name who is maybe already in that boat.   He is owed 3/60 his last three years, so not as underwater as Hosmer where you'd wish for Hosmer and Abrams for a PTBNL, but maybe you pay less in prospects for Gallen if you take Bumgarner too.

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28 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Bret Sayre is a baseball internet guy I like.   One thing you can say for fantasy analysts is they rank players without hometown bias.   He's been publishing monthly updates to both MLB rankings and pure prospects all year at BP.   Here's the AUG21 ranks for some MLB'ers.

60 Mullins, 90 Chisholm, 91, Rutschman, 102 Gallen, 108 Grayson, 117 Mancini, 122 Mountcastle, 179 Means

I understand those ranks to basically be expected fantasy stat production over the next few years.   Of course in Fantasyland no one cares about real life $$$/WAR or contract status.

His Oriole AUG21 prospect ranks I'll chunk into three groups of four.   I am guessing if we can cajole ARZ to accept four quarters instead of a dollar, after our Top 12 guys stopping having much marginal value.   I assume we don't want the dollar for dollar Rutschman-Gallen or Rodriguez-Gallen deal.

A - Adley, Grayson, Hall, Gunnar

B - Cowser, Kjerstad, Westburg, Mayo

C - Norby, Trimble, Harvey, Stowers

What would you say to an ARZ ask of Cowser, Mayo and Stowers for Gallen?    I'm not sure how much currency Oriole pitchers like Baumann and Bradish might have in the market this offseason, even if you could pry Bradish from Matt Blood's cold, dead fingers.

When I look around MLB for expensive pitchers who come 2022 or 2023 won't want to be where they are now and I get past Chris Sale, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner is another famous name who is maybe already in that boat.   He is owed 3/60 his last three years, so not as underwater as Hosmer where you'd wish for Hosmer and Abrams for a PTBNL, but maybe you pay less in prospects for Gallen if you take Bumgarner too.

I would say no to that one.    It might be fair but I wouldn't do it.   Gallen looks interesting (I've never seen him pitch) but he's having a down year ERA+ 93.   

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What about trading Hays for Skubal or Gallen?  We could buy a free agent (like Soler, Pederson, or Rosario) to replace him until guys like Stowers, Colson, and Kjerstad are ready.  

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13 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

What about trading Hays for Skubal or Gallen?  We could buy a free agent (like Soler, Pederson, or Rosario) to replace him until guys like Stowers, Colson, and Kjerstad are ready.  

Not sure what the appeal of Hays is to other teams at this point.   As a piece, maybe but certainly not as a one for one trade.   But sure, if I could substitute Hays for Cowser, that would make me think about it.     How about Hays, Henderson, and Tanner Scott?

 

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4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I haven't looked but I think most of the guys that pitched for the O's in 2020 and 2021 had better results in 2020.

Without question.   Our pitching in general was better in 2020 than the last couple of years, especially the bullpen. 

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I believe the Holt effect centered around the sticky stuff that was banned in June.  Beside G-Rod, who is a pitcher who improved this year?  Not many names come up.   Smith and Bradish have hit a wall  AAA with control issues, Hall with serious elbow issues ala Llowen, and Lowther, wellls, Akin, Kreamer not performing.   Baumann maybe if he can get an off speed pitch against lefties.   The era and whip are scary to look at at all the levels.

Edited by WI O’s Fan

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17 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Not sure what the appeal of Hays is to other teams at this point.   As a piece, maybe but certainly not as a one for one trade.   But sure, if I could substitute Hays for Cowser, that would make me think about it.     How about Hays, Henderson, and Tanner Scott?

 

Hayes, Henderson, and Scott for Skubal?  Yes.  I think Skubal would be a great get for Baltimore - exactly the type of player we need.  But not for Gallen.  He's an interesting target, but he's  little older and hasn't thrown a lot of innings these last 3 years.    

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20 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Ok, so lets' talk about Gallen.   He's a promising young pitcher who is already establishing himself in the majors.   Is he worth a Bradish, Baumann, Stowers package?     That's two pitchers with good arms who are both question marks as future starters and a potential power bat in the Arizona outfield.    If not, can we make a deal without including D.L. Hall?

I'm hesitant to give up Bauman.  Could we take him out and put in Brnovich?  

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Just now, Ruzious said:

I'm hesitant to give up Bauman.  Could we take him out and put in Brnovich?  

Less attractive offer.   It's not up for me to decide.   It's up to the other team.    

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Starlin Castro released by Nats, 31 yrs old FA coming off a $6M contract with domestic abuse charge hanging over his head. Former All Star, upgrade from Franco, don't see any details on the charge in a brief net search. He and EdRod maybe cost $20 M/yr and we save about $12 M next year on CD's prorated salary, so not much of a payroll increase but could address 2 big needs.

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5 hours ago, Ruzious said:

Lol, ok.  

I don’t think we can say for sure which of the pitching prospects teams would value.  If I were a team, a lot of these guys could be thrown in a hat and picked out blind and there wouldn’t be a lot of difference.

If i we’re picking one guy to trade for, who wasn’t GRod or Hall, I think it would be Pinto.

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On 9/2/2021 at 12:58 PM, RZNJ said:

Here are some names of pitchers.   The rebuilding teams are the ones who probably want prospects so I'm looking at their rosters.

1) Zac Gallen (D-backs)  26 yo.   Looks like 4 years of service time left.

2) Tarik Skubal (Tigers)  24 yo   In his rookie year.

3) JT Brubaker (Pirates)  27 yo   4 or 5 years of service time

1. Gallen - I think you've correctly identified Gallen as a trade candidate, but I don't see the O's matching the price tag for him. He'd require a Berrios-type return. I see him going to a contender.

2. Skubal - The Tigers are a half-way decent team at the moment and Skubal is part of a pretty promising rotation for them. I see the Tigers adding in an effort to compete starting this offseason.

3. JT Brubaker -  I don't see a lot to love here, see below:

Screen-Shot-2021-09-03-at-5-19-01-PM.png

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