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OrangeTurtle

Mullins Trade Scenarios

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Very thoughtful first post.  Post more often!  I need to think about these more, but the idea of selling high on Mullins and acquiring pitchers or players at other positions of need besides OF makes some sense.   

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I wish I knew other teams players and minor leaguers like I used to.   I don't know enough to really comment one way or the other.    You say that Mullins is older than you like.  He's 26!!!!!

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This is probably the best out of the  box trade proposal idea I have seen on the board this year. That said, Mullins is not even arb eligible until 2023. I don't think now is the time to trade him unless you really believe his value is going to tank. I wouldn't be signing him to a 12 year deal but I also wouldn't be trading him.

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Mullins, if he keeps this up, will be expensive when he gets to arbitration.  That said, that point is still a year away at least.  That for me puts Mullins into the trade only if someone is doing something truly stupid area.

30/30 Center Fielders with great coverage dont come along that often.   Even playoff teams struggle to find them.  If Mullins cost $15-$20 million in his age 28-29 seasons when we would expect the Orioles to start competing thats probably a pretty good value.

We can't expect the Orioles to be unable to spend money and also become a playoff team, those two things are mutually exclusive.

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I'd be very, very careful about trading a high character, great defensive CF who can steal 30 bags, hit 30 HRs, and hit .300. They aren't too many of those.

We're building toward a WS contender with the window opening in 2024 or so. Mullins will still be here then. 

 

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As much as I love Cedric, I’d also be very open to trading him. Both of these  packages would be impossible for us to pass up on. I don’t think we’d get quite that much for Mullins until he proves this is closer to the new normal for him. If he’s doing this the first two months of next season then these packages become more realistic IMO. 

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I think there are going to be a lot of GMs who would be wary to trade for Mullins this offseason, simply because of the fear that he could be a one year wonder.

If he's playing at this level next year or at a similar level, he's for real and I think there'd be more interest.  

That said, I don't see this franchise trading him.  

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25 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

I'd be very, very careful about trading a high character, great defensive CF who can steal 30 bags, hit 30 HRs, and hit .300. They aren't too many of those.

We're building toward a WS contender with the window opening in 2024 or so. Mullins will still be here then. 

 

Exactly.  Some people have the mindset of trading any player that has any sort of value.  That gets you into a cycle of continuously rebuilding and never loading the chamber.

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10 minutes ago, yark14 said:

Exactly.  Some people have the mindset of trading any player that has any sort of value.  That gets you into a cycle of continuously rebuilding and never loading the chamber.

Ideally you end up like the Rays and it's more reloading than rebuilding.

To me it's simple, if your data says this is more or less who he is now, you hold onto him.  If the data says this is an outlier season then you sell as high as you can.

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14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Ideally you end up like the Rays and it's more reloading than rebuilding.

To me it's simple, if your data says this is more or less who he is now, you hold onto him.  If the data says this is an outlier season then you sell as high as you can.

Of course no one else has this data.  The Orioles have a double top secret data set that has them head and shoulders above all other ML teams and their evaluations.

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1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Of course no one else has this data.  The Orioles have a double top secret data set that has them head and shoulders above all other ML teams and their evaluations.

That would be why I said as high as you can.

Hopefully the O's data is better than at least some teams.

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I like MIA/STL as possible CF buyers, but I don't believe Mullins would approach those kinds of returns right now.

This spring I think we would have taken DeJong alone for Mullins with a smile, never mind the cartwheels and backflips we'd have done for any of those other six guys.   Mullins has increased his value by a lot, but for a non-blue chip I believe the league, as with Means, will want to see it more than once.

If STL really has money, might they try to woo Scherzer home?

Between Kim Ng and Mike Elias, there probably are loads of Hitting for Pitching frameworks to discuss as their two teams start improving and seek balance.

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