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OrangeTurtle

Mullins Trade Scenarios

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I’m always a fan of selling high. Mullins is sky high. Selling him actually might speed up our competitive window than slow it down. 

We are loaded with OFs and could draft another one with 1:1 next year. 

What we don’t have is SP. 

I like the Marlins trade the best. Especially Watson and Meyer. Idk if we could get more than that. But if we can then we should strongly consider it. We’d then have the bats to pair with the arms. 

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14 hours ago, OrangeTurtle said:

Long time reader, first time poster.  I'll preface this by saying I'm not normally the type to throw out wild trade scenarios, and I love Mullins, so these deals are more in line with "selling high", but I'm bored, so here it goes:

#1: Mullins to MIA for Max Meyer, one of Luzardo/Cabrera + Khalil Watson

Why this makes sense for both squads:

There was a rumor that the Marlins offered Meyer as a 1 for 1 at the deadline for Brandon Marsh of the Angels and LAA balked. MIA is eager to compete in the weak NL East and want some bats to go with some of their established, elite, young pitching. Mullins is a cost controlled CF with range for the cavernous Marlins ballpark. 

The dirty secret on this board is that Mullins isn't that great of a defender by advanced metrics, but Jeter may not care considering he was never a vaunted "great defender" himself by the statisticians.

Pairing Meyer and SPx + GrayRod, Means, Baumann, Bradish, DL Hall, etc. gives Elias a core of SP prospects to work with (guards against natural attrition) in addition to the stud position players on the way. Since Mullins is a CF on pace for 5-6 fWAR, he's the guy that the Marlins need right now. For the Orioles, you play Hays in CF next year hoping he holds up, and then if Cowser is truly looked at as a CF option for Elias, you could conceivably see him in CF anyway come late 2023.

Mullins is great, but with his age, and the small sample size of this year, you're banking on his D getting worse + selling high right now for potential on the other side that aligns more with our timeline.

#2: Mullins to STL for DeJong, Gorman, Liberatore.

Why this makes sense for both squads:

First of all, DeJong absolutely should be a target for the Orioles to go after this year. He's signed to a cheap deal, plays great defense, and can be the JJ Hardy clone who could benefit from a change of scenery & provide 20-25 HR pop for the young pitchers.

As much as I'd like the Os to go after Correa/Story/Seager, I don't think they can convince one to come for what we'd have to pay at this stage in the rebuild. Gorman is blocked by Arenado and can start next year for the Os at 3B. Liberatore is another SP prospect on the GrayRod/Bradish/Baumann and to a lesser extent, DL Hall timeline.

There are whispers the Cards might go after one of the premier SS on the market this year to pair with Arenado/Goldy and their other guys, plus they will probably re-sign Waino another year and hope Flaherty returns to dominance. Their lineup is extremely RH heavy and Mullins immediately gives them another elite bat to go with their new presumptive SS and the aforementioned guys. They have Carlson and O'Neill dialed in for COF and then can use Bader as their OF sub keeping everyone fresh.

Like I mentioned, I love Mullins, but hes older than I'd like and there's always risk this year is a fluke. I like the idea of stacking the team for 2023 with tons of cheap players and then, if/when our minor league INF prospects begin to get ready to add, then we have pieces to trade for elite established players.

Sorry for the length, any thoughts? Which scenario is more appealing? DeJong, IMO, would be a GREAT target to go after if STL is serious about using new payroll flexibility for a FA SS. But adding Meyer to GrayRod is appealing as well.

I don't like the idea of trading Mullins.  But, both of these trades would be hard to say no to from this end...

I think this price might be too rich...but I could see someone really overpaying at next years trade deadline if Mullins is still holding where he has in 2021.

Welcome aboard.

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I don’t know if Mullins will get that return from one great season. Either package would be hard to turn down.

I would prefer the Cardinals package. I am a little biased as I have watched Liberatore and Gorman since they were 14-15. Liberatore would slot right in behind Grayson Rodriguez, and in front of DL Hall. Nolan Gorman would be our 3B for years to come. DeJong is up and down, but solid overall. 

I am not not sure if I am sold on Max Meyer as a starter long term, but I do not know as much about him as I would like to. Watson is a lot of projection. 

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1 hour ago, foxfield said:

I don't like the idea of trading Mullins.  But, both of these trades would be hard to say no to from this end...

I think this price might be too rich...but I could see someone really overpaying at next years trade deadline if Mullins is still holding where he has in 2021.

Welcome aboard.

I think this is the most likely scenario if Mullins was to get traded. Other teams are also thinking is Mullins a one year wonder and aren’t going to offer a trade package worthy of a top three centerfielder.

That changes if like you said Mullins also produces like this in 2022. 

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I’m really interested in what it’s like to deal with Kim Ng. I always wanted her exactly because she’s smart and experienced, and yet a complete unknown, and no one would have any idea how to deal with her. I strongly feel that’s going to give her an advantage in her dealings with other GMs, especially early on before she develops a track record.

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Put it this way.  Per Top 100 Baseball Prospects | MLB.com Watson is 28th and Meyer is 31st.  If we can get another good young pitcher in the deal, it'd be hard to say no.  After researching Cabrera, I'd have to say Yes if he's the 3rd piece, but we'd probably have to add some sweetener to get them to include him or Sixto Sanchez.      

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9 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

I don’t know if Mullins will get that return from one great season. Either package would be hard to turn down.

I would prefer the Cardinals package. I am a little biased as I have watched Liberatore and Gorman since they were 14-15. Liberatore would slot right in behind Grayson Rodriguez, and in front of DL Hall. Nolan Gorman would be our 3B for years to come. DeJong is up and down, but solid overall. 

I am not not sure if I am sold on Max Meyer as a starter long term, but I do not know as much about him as I would like to. Watson is a lot of projection. 

Meyer was my favorite pitcher in last years draft.  Would be excited about that Marlins package but agree you would prefer the Cards one.

But yea, I don’t feel these deals are viable yet.  Maybe at the deadline or next offseason.  
 

Good first post though.  Well thought out.

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22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It seems like most agree that Mullins value isn’t there yet.

But what if we are wrong about that?

What if you could get a few top 50 prospects and another player.  Would you trade Mullins now?

Yes

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As others have mentioned, I'm skeptical the Cardinals or Marlins would make those deals proposed. You lay out a good case on why it makes sense, but I'm still skeptical. That said, if that was the return, I would pull the trigger on either deal. The outfield is a place of strength and depth. If you can add ready-now infield options and/or pitching than it makes sense. I would not deal Mullins unless it were an overpay, but to me, those proposals are overpays without being outlandish and ones I would take. 

I love what Mullins has done. I'm excited to see him in an O's uniform for a long time, but I'm also nervous to see what the regression is next year. I don't anticipate him repeating his 2021 success. Perhaps that is because I'm a jaded Orioles fan who doesn't think we can have nice things or perhaps I'm just a pessimist, but I expect regression and with him still making near league minimum next year coming off a 30/30 year this is likely the time that Mullins yields the most in return.

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I view a trade of Mullins similar to that of Bedard.  There were many who wanted to keep the 28 year old ace as we had finally produced home grown pitching talent, he was still under team control and had shown improving abilities each year.  But the O’s needed a shot in the arm talent wise in more than 1 position.  That trade propelled the franchise to a multi year magical run as it provided multiple pieces that connected the dots of talent the Orioles already had in place.

I love Mullins and without him we probably would have won 35 games this year, but a trade of Mullins has the potential of greatly boosting our talent pool in positions of need…… if we can get what the opening post claims we can get.  Personally I think the trade market has changed greatly and we will only be capable of getting half the players listed.  But the idea should absolutely be explored because it only takes 1 GM to agree.

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I think it was Bowden? that said a team trading for Mullins now would have to accept that they were going to lose the trade long term, but that they were making the trade to win now. 
 

I’d be open to selling sky high on Mullins. We have a glut of OF’s, but nobody going 30/30 like Mullins this year. However, we could put Hays in CF. We do have McKenna and Watson that will both be CF options. Cowser should move fast. 
 

Eventually we have to flip some position players for pitching. 

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I'd surely do the Marlins trade but I really doubt they would.  Mullins has been great, and I do think he could go 20-20 for a few years, but we have so many OFs in the system and so little pitching.

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As to Mullins regressing, I expect he will, but not to the point where he’s an average or below player.   His .383 wOBA is higher than his .350 xwOBA, but some of that is due to Mullins’ speed and the hitter-friendly ballpark he plays in, rather than some fluke of luck.   Even at .350 wOBA he’d be a well above average player.   An average wOBA for a CF is .310.    So, I think a team trading for Mullins can be confident they are getting an above average starting CF.   

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Honestly, had Means not gotten hurt, I think Elias would’ve traded him at the deadline this year. 
 

Realistically, our window doesn’t start until 2024. We’re just too far away. Only AR and Grod come up next year. A lot of position prospects will come up in 2023, but it’s hard to expect to just contend with a team full of rookies. So we’re looking at 2024. All that adds up to selling sky high on Mullins and hoping Means has a big first half next season to trade him. 
 

It shouldn’t be viewed as a negative. 2024 and on will be very fun. We need to build for that team and not try to get lucky with 2022(lol) and 2023. 
 

I love the idea of getting Meyer, Watson, and a third piece(Luzardo/Sanchez/Cabrera/etc…). Add that to picking 1:1(Greene), and having another top 5 pick the following draft. 

It’s a tough pill to swallow, but is it really?  I mean we’re a 45 win team in the toughest division in MLB. Plus the Sox and NYY spend so much, and the Jays/Rays are currently loaded and young. 

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