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Mullins Trade Scenarios

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4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It seems like most agree that Mullins value isn’t there yet.

But what if we are wrong about that?

What if you could get a few top 50 prospects and another player.  Would you trade Mullins now?

That’s the right question. I defer to the people who know about the quality of the players mentioned. If they are all that, I’d say yes.

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How does one calculate “trade value?” The term itself is so vague It can mean basically anything we want.

Mullins WAR is 5.4 right now, which is outstanding. But what would you acquire that would be greater than that? And how do you calculate it? Potential performance, right now performance, Or past? Or time? I’m not being rhetorical, I’m really wanting answers to this, because unless we can answer that we can’t really calculate what a good return would be, And we also have to approach the question from the other teams’ POV.

I firmly advocate treating everybody at peak value, but then we have to decide what is peak value( fairly easy) And what is a good return( not fairly easy.)

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29 minutes ago, Philip said:

How does one calculate “trade value?” The term itself is so vague It can mean basically anything we want.

Mullins WAR is 5.4 right now, which is outstanding. But what would you acquire that would be greater than that? And how do you calculate it? Potential performance, right now performance, Or past? Or time? I’m not being rhetorical, I’m really wanting answers to this, because unless we can answer that we can’t really calculate what a good return would be, And we also have to approach the question from the other teams’ POV.

I firmly advocate treating everybody at peak value, but then we have to decide what is peak value( fairly easy) And what is a good return( not fairly easy.)

You also have to multiply the expected WAR by years of team control, then convert to a dollar amount, then subtract expected salary. That could give you a rough quantification of any player's "surplus value" to their salary. 

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For reasons I don't understand, the Cardinals love Bader so they're not looking for a CF'er. But I'd take the prospects coming back in either of those deals. I don't think either team would offer that much.

Means to the Cards might make more sense. They have a lot invested in Goldschmidt and Arenado and they need cheap pitching. Their defense allows them to pitch Jon Lester and JA Happ effectively so Means could really be special for them.

While Gorman is blocked by Arenado, they've decided to try to convert him to second. They really covet Gorman. I don't think he's available. 

I really hope Mullins has that much value to where deals like this are possible.

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4 hours ago, Getz said:

I would love to get that deal with the Marlins,I liked Meyer in the draft and we really need to get another SP prospect. Hopefully Elias can get a trade like that done in the offseason.

And note that while Cowser was picked 5th, Watson was picked 16th, and right now - MLB.com has Watson as the 28th best prospect in baseball while Cowser is 78th.  Watson seemed like a more logical pick at 5 to me than Cowser - and I say that as a fan of Cowser's. 

How bout this - Meyer (31), Watson (28), and Cabrera (30) for Mullins and Gunnar?.  We wouldn't need Gunnar - with Watson and Westburg and Mayo as infield prospects - not to mention Norby, Vavra and Ortiz.  That's a good trade for both teams.  And all of a sudden, we'd have our pitching staff of the future - not to mention at dirt-cheap for years.  Gunnar's a heckuva prospect, but he's more like a fringe top 100 type.  Those 3 are all... top 31.  Or would it make more sense to include Wesburg or Mayo rather than Gunnar?  Come to think of it, I'd probably rather trade Mayo.  Hold the Mayo?          

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

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Sorry guys, didn't realize my post actually went through because I went through the vetting thing before I could post.

Appreciate the thoughtful responses and how welcoming everyone has been.

Admittedly, I agree, I doubt Mullins could return these types of packages right now, but, to trade him, I think you have to get returns like these to make it even viable.

Marlins are definitely known to be looking for CF and whether the rumor of them shopping Meyer for Marsh is true or not, there is enough smoke there for him to be "available".  Agree with the other poster where if you had to add Gunnar or Westburg or someone like that to sweeten, I would.

Regarding Watson's pre-draft rankings and being *ahead* of Cowser on these lists, you have to remember he's a HS and there's chatter he might not be able to stick at SS long term. I think the Marlins would be willing to trade him for the right deal considering he might not make the show until 2025/2026, if he ever does.

Overall, like others mentioned, I like the OF depth Elias has stockpiled, which makes trading Mullins easier + adding Green is a possibility (long ways away from that and he's a HS, but still). Also, although Hays is perpetually hurt, I think next year is a perfect opportunity for him to cement his case as someone moving forward as a true CF type or not.. moving Mullins gives him his PT.

I do believe Cards deal is less likely from their perspective, but CF producing like Mullins this year are a hot commodity and the amount of time each team gets him makes it extremely appealing from their perspectives, IMO.

Anyway, I think holding another year or half year definitely makes sense, as well. Overall, I don't want to trade him UNLESS you get returns like this back.

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15 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Springer and Brantley are the only two big time CF FAs this upcoming offseason. Mullins’ market could be to replace them or it could be for a team looking to stay/get under the luxury tax. 

Springer signed a long term deal with Toronto.

Brantley signed for 2 years this past offseason.

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4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Springer signed a long term deal with Toronto.

Brantley signed for 2 years this past offseason.

He must be looking at a list from last year.  I see a few CF who are FA this year but not really anyone I’d call a premium player.   (Edit: Starling Marte is the top of this market, he’s certainly premium).  So, that does suggest this may be a good time to see what’s out there in the trade market.   

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I just don't know because it's so hard to know if Mullins is a perennial 3-5 WAR guy. Any trade would have to involve a certifiable SP or SS stud who is very unlikely to be a miss at the ML level. And no one is going to trade that for Mullins, IMO. 

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1) I dont trust Elias to trade Mullins for value.  But I am one of the few who are very pessimistic about his performance as a GM.

2) Mullins isn't arb eligible until 2023 at which point he would probably cost somewhere between $6-$8 million in the first year.  So you don't trade him due to his cost unless someone has completely bought in and is handing you a ransom.  What should you get for a 30-30 CF with plus plus range?  

3) If you think this is a fluke year and his production will decrease you might trade him, but none of his underlying statistics points to that.

4) You keep him.  Hes not a free agent until 2026 at which point Grayson and Adley are probably just hitting their arb years.  At that point you are in one of two places, you have a competitive team because the farm has produced at which point you need Mullins or you don't have a competitive team because the farm hasn't produced or ownership has meddled or ownership hasn't committed resources, in which case you have had an opportunity to trade Mullins prior to his 2nd or 3rd arb years.  Maybe you get less than trading him this off season, but you traded that off for getting more information about how competitive the team is.  Frankly, in this last case, if the Orioles remain uncompetitive into 2024, you are probably best spending your summer watching competitive knitting than the shitshow that team would be 7 years into a rebuild and without a hope in the world.

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On 9/14/2021 at 5:46 PM, Getz said:

I would love to get that deal with the Marlins,I liked Meyer in the draft and we really need to get another SP prospect. Hopefully Elias can get a trade like that done in the offseason.

The Marlins trade is really growing on me. Meyer is adding a 3rd piece to Grod and Hall. Watson is a freak athlete that could be 30/30 himself one day, but it will mean more because we won’t be the worst team in baseball. Then if we can get a Sanchez or Luzardo then that adds a #4 rotation piece behind Grod, Hall, and Meyer. 
 

Also I have to keep beating this drum, 4 teams in our division are on pace to win 90 games this year. Chasing 81 wins is just going to turn winning in 2024 into possibly another rebuild from square one. 

Edited by sportsfan8703

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18 hours ago, Frobby said:

He must be looking at a list from last year.  I see a few CF who are FA this year but not really anyone I’d call a premium player.   (Edit: Starling Marte is the top of this market, he’s certainly premium).  So, that does suggest this may be a good time to see what’s out there in the trade market.   

Agreed, and if Marte's the best free agent CFer, teams will likely be very skeptical that he'll have the range to play there for long - with him being just about 33 - he's probably looked at as a LFer.    

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