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wildcard

Proposal: O's spend 40m in FA

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My plan is always not to waste the Adley and Grayson years.

Instead of trading the O's best players,  the O's spend 40m and make the team more competitive in 2022.  Add a starter 2/30,  spend 1/7m each of 2 relievers and a 2B/3B, spend 1/2m on a UIF.

Mancini  7m  DH/1B - 2/14m;  His value has dropped in the 2nd half along with his numbers

Means 5m

Santander 5m

Severino 3m  Backup catcher for 50 games.  I am resting Adley

Scott 2m

Lopez 2m as reliever

Davis 6m settlement

Plus 15 players at 600K each.   9m

39m before FA

Starter 15m;  2/30

2 relievers at 7m each

2B/3B  7m

UIF  2m (could be a Rule 5 guy)

38 on FAs;    Total payroll  77M

Starter: Means,  FA,  Grayson in May, Akin, Ellis, Zimmermann, Baumann, Sedlock, A Wells, ...Maybe T Wells

Relievers:  Maybe T Wells, Sulser, Lopez, 2 FA, Greene, Scott, Maybe Bautista, Rule 5 guy, whoever is not in the rotation. 

Infield/DH:  Mountcastle, FA 2B/3B, Mateo, Urias,   FA UIF, Mancini 

Outfield:  Mullins, Santander, Hays, Neustrom, McKenna, Stewart (everyone has options)

Catcher: Adley, Severino

AAA: Jones, Grenier, Dorrian, Stowers, Diaz, Grayson, Bradish, DL Hall, Kremer, Lowther, Smith, H Harvey,  Bishop, Diplan

AA: Vavra, Ortiz, Westburg

Outside of SG and Corn's disaproval, what do you think? 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

What's the biggest increase they've had in spending from year to year?

In the last 10 years 2015 at 119m to 2016 147.7m = 28.7m.

O's starting payroll in 2021 was 57m.  This would add 20m to 77m

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9 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

Grayson's at 100 IP and hasn't even pitched in AAA yet. I don't think they're planning on bringing him up in May, especially for a full starter workload.

I didn't say when in May.  If Grayson does in AAA what he did in AA how long does he stay there?   7 starts? 10 starts?   He will get 5 starts a month and the AAA season will start in early April even if there is a work stoppage.

If the O's are doing well at the deadline they can add.  It is possible even for a developing team.

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2 minutes ago, SilverRocket said:

Grayson's at 100 IP and hasn't even pitched in AAA yet. I don't think they're planning on bringing him up in May, especially for a full starter workload.

I agree the plan is a bit murky.   I think how quickly he gets out of AAA depends on how dominant he is at that level.   If he’s as dominant there as he was at Bowie, I do think a May arrival is in the cards.   But if he struggles a bit, he could spend the first three months at Norfolk.   Either way, I doubt they want him throwing more than 135-140 innings total.  So, they’ll either need to limit his innings per game pretty drastically while still in the minors, or plan on limiting the number of starts he makes.   

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2 hours ago, wildcard said:

My plan is always not to waste the Adley and Grayson years.

Instead of trading the O's best players,  the O's spend 40m and make the team more competitive in 2022.  Add a starter 2/30,  spend 1/7m each of 2 relievers and a 2B/3B, spend 1/2m on a UIF.

Mancini  7m  DH/1B - 2/14m;  His value has dropped in the 2nd half along with his numbers

Means 5m

Santander 5m

Severino 3m  Backup catcher for 50 games.  I am resting Adley

Scott 2m

Lopez 2m as reliever

Davis 6m settlement

Plus 15 players at 600K each.   9m

39m before FA

Starter 15m;  2/30

2 relievers at 7m each

2B/3B  7m

UIF  2m (could be a Rule 5 guy)

38 on FAs;    Total payroll  77M

Starter: Means,  FA,  Grayson in May, Akin, Ellis, Zimmermann, Baumann, Sedlock, A Wells, ...Maybe T Wells

Relievers:  Maybe T Wells, Sulser, Lopez, 2 FA, Greene, Scott, Maybe Bautista, Rule 5 guy, whoever is not in the rotation. 

Infield/DH:  Mountcastle, FA 2B/3B, Mateo, Urias,   FA UIF, Mancini 

Outfield:  Mullins, Santander, Hays, Neustrom, McKenna, Stewart (everyone has options)

Catcher: Adley, Severino

AAA: Jones, Grenier, Dorrian, Stowers, Diaz, Grayson, Bradish, DL Hall, Kremer, Lowther, Smith, H Harvey,  Bishop, Diplan

AA: Vavra, Ortiz, Westburg

Outside of SG and Corn's disaproval, what do you think? 

 

 

 

At first glance, anything that includes Severino is a dealbreaker for me. However I’m about to work and will give it a second glance later

Edited by Philip

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I think maybe over the course of this offseason and next the Orioles need to ramp up their free agent spending. I really want to see an attempt to land at least one starting pitcher that isn't a total reclamation project or failed prospect.

With the better prospects starting to come up next year, I think by 2023 the O's have shot at a better then .500 record. But it will require spending money on some free agent players.

The biggest obstacle is going to be ownership's appetite for opening up their wallets to increase payroll. 

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Pretty similar to the plan I offered. I think there is a chance something like this could get us to .500. What's more, it's something I could imagine the organization actually doing. Only question is who are the FA's you are signing at this budget?

I think to get a decent starting pitcher we will need to make a bigger commitment in years, at least 4 years like the Ubaldo deal. With our lack of pitching depth it would be worth it to sign somebody good. 

Then fill the infield and bullpen with 1 year guys. 

I would not spend on Severino. There has to be a cheaper alternative. I doubt we go for two veteran bullpen arms but might get one. 

 

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"Severino 3m  Backup catcher for 50 games.  I am resting Adley"

No to Severino at 3m, 300k or 3k.  Get him off the roster, period.  The rest doesn't look too bad, though I honestly don't know if they are going to spend money on pitching with as much depth as we have in the minors.  Granted, much of that depth isn't very good depth, but there are a ton of bodies.  I'd love to see a decent starter to go with Means and give us at least the hope of being in 2/5ths of the games from a pitching standpoint.  

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1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

One of the dumber things a non-contending team can do is spend real money on relievers, and you want to spend $14 million on two relief pitchers.

Yeah, the pen is where we ought to be especially cheap.  Use that 14 mil to make a splash on a pitcher.  

Speaking of which, we need to acquire at least one starting pitcher - be it by free agency or trade - to go with Means, Grayson, Bauman, and maybe Akin.  .  

Fast-track Vavra and Ortiz if they hit well in the first half of the season. 

If we don't think DL Hall is a starter, make him a late inning reliever - with him and Wells our 8th and 9th inning guys.  

Figure out what to do with both of the Kyle B's and Smith.  Maybe pigghback starters?  

Don't forget Drew Rom.  

  

 

 

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4 hours ago, wildcard said:

My plan is always not to waste the Adley and Grayson years.

Instead of trading the O's best players,  the O's spend 40m and make the team more competitive in 2022.  Add a starter 2/30,  spend 1/7m each of 2 relievers and a 2B/3B, spend 1/2m on a UIF.

Mancini  7m  DH/1B - 2/14m;  His value has dropped in the 2nd half along with his numbers

Means 5m

Santander 5m

Severino 3m  Backup catcher for 50 games.  I am resting Adley

Scott 2m

Lopez 2m as reliever

Davis 6m settlement

Plus 15 players at 600K each.   9m

39m before FA

Starter 15m;  2/30

2 relievers at 7m each

2B/3B  7m

UIF  2m (could be a Rule 5 guy)

38 on FAs;    Total payroll  77M

Starter: Means,  FA,  Grayson in May, Akin, Ellis, Zimmermann, Baumann, Sedlock, A Wells, ...Maybe T Wells

Relievers:  Maybe T Wells, Sulser, Lopez, 2 FA, Greene, Scott, Maybe Bautista, Rule 5 guy, whoever is not in the rotation. 

Infield/DH:  Mountcastle, FA 2B/3B, Mateo, Urias,   FA UIF, Mancini 

Outfield:  Mullins, Santander, Hays, Neustrom, McKenna, Stewart (everyone has options)

Catcher: Adley, Severino

AAA: Jones, Grenier, Dorrian, Stowers, Diaz, Grayson, Bradish, DL Hall, Kremer, Lowther, Smith, H Harvey,  Bishop, Diplan

AA: Vavra, Ortiz, Westburg

Outside of SG and Corn's disaproval, what do you think? 

 

 

 

I love the thoughtfulness behind your posts, such a great poster. Thank you and keep up the great analysis. 

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I think we need to bring in at least 2 starters, realistically Chad Kuhl / Vince Velasquez types that won’t break the bank to supplement the current staff.  We don’t have the depth we hoped to have at this point.

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Severino Weaver always said you don't pick guys for what the can't do, you pick them for what they can do.   Severino can hit lefties.  I have never seem a catcher take more hits to the head and groin than Pedro.  No wonder he does not move well.  He is all banged up and he is a Dominican.  He does not play that well in cold.  But 85% of the games are played in warm to hot weather. 

When you look at the other back up catchers they do not offer the power, ability to hit lefties, the arm, he knows the AL East hitters which helps him call a good game.  He can help familiarize Adley with the hitters the O's face.  If he only plays 50 games he will no get as banged up so he probably plays better defense. I am not worried about saving 1.5m for a cheaper backup catcher that will not offer what Severino offers.

Relievers:  Its terrible for a team to play well and lose in the middle and late innings.  The O's need to add two relievers that can consistently get outs.  Tate and Scott may have good arms that the O's want to keep around.  But they can go to AAA if they can't command the ball.  They both have options.  Really, really tired of losing games late and so are the players IMO.  1/7m for a reliever should get the O's two good ones.  I don't want long term agreements for these two guys.  Win the games that the O's should win instead of giving them away.

If the O's fill the holes they have and with Adley and Grayson being a big part of the teams turnaround they can be a winning team in 2022.  It will be a  big step forward.

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