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Proposal: O's spend 40m in FA

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49 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Is there evidence that Dominicans don’t play that well in the cold?   That’s a new one on me.   

As to Severino in particular, there’s certainly evidence that he’s not a good September hitter (.539 career OPS).    Whether that’s due to not doing well in the cold, or just being worn down, or pure coincidence, I couldn’t tell you.   He hits pretty well in March/April (.707 OPS), which around here is usually colder than September.   So, I’m inclined to go with “worn down” as the explanation.   On the other hand, he was awful last September (.438 OPS), in a season that was only 60 games long, so being worn down doesn’t explain that.   
 

Severino has a 754 career OPS vs lefties.  That is the way I see him being used.  Lefties and pitchers he has a history of hitting.   It has been mentioned in another thread that Severino did not block balls well in April.  Cold weather may be part of that.   He is not as good at blocking balls as a very good defensive catcher but in 50 games a year he at least is likely to get hurt less which may help his mobility.

My main thing about Severino is that playing him vs pitchers he can hit does not leave a big hole in the lineup.  Its hard to say that about most backup catchers.  And the O's playing in the AL East  can't afford to have that hole at catcher and expect to have a winning season.  Maybe teams with better offenses can have a no hit backup catcher but I don't think the O's are to that point yet.

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To me if you are building a foundation for future success this offseason you have to take into account the realities of the market, the available options, and see who can be added to help in the next four years.  That may mean you are adding less players, and at higher contracts.

For me those players are one of the high level to elite infielders.  I would target Baez personally and I would be prepared to give him a 3-4 deal at $22-24 AAV.  That is in line with market value and would allow him an age 31-32 contract.

You have to address the realities of the Orioles pitching situation.  In the next few years you are going to have to add significant pitching to the organization to not waste the first three years of those players.  The pitching coming up can't be counted on to fill out a rotation, they more need to supplement it. Realiatically that means in the next 4 years you are committing $30-40 AAV to pitching.  Maybe that's taking some chances or investing more in a know quantity.

For the rest of the roster.  Elias is going to have to be better at bringing in impactful bargain players, better at preparing prospects, and build out the roster less on waiver wire cast offs.  The Orioles need some happy surprises, no team - especially not a mid market team - succeeds without happening upon some serious unexpected production.

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8 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

This whole speculation spread is BS, built on wild ass speculation.

We dont really know what this team is willing to spend in the off-season??????

 

Of course it’s built on speculation.  So what?  Doesn’t mean it’s not a worthy discussion.

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I don't disagree with the idea, but the execution proposed in the OP. I would not spend money on an utility infielder or relievers...yet. I strongly believe that the bullpen will be much better if the rotation isn't a complete pile of garbage. Means and, eventually, Grayson Rodriguez helps. Giving some more starts to the young guys like Baumann, Zimmermann, Lowther, Akin, Tyler Wells, etc. makes sense for two spots which will allow for an opportunity for the guys, but also make them earn it in spring training and throughout the season (either by their performance at AAA or in the Majors). That leaves 2 spots to fill in the rotation: one for the length of the season and one until Rodriguez comes up. That is where I'd spend the money. I imagine Kershaw, Scherzer, Gausman, Ray, Rodon, etc. are all beyond where the Orioles can/should go. Perhaps someone like Anthony DeSclafani, Eduardo Rodriguez, or Jonathan Gray would be an option? Plus someone closer to the Matt Harvey mold as the placeholder for Rodriguez. It's not that exciting, but it at least gives us a couple mid-rotation types in Means and the one free agent arm plus someone to eat innings and take some pressure off the pen. Ideally, you'd also have Rodriguez pitching well by year's end (albeit with some growing pains) and at least one of the other guys pitching well enough to be considered a solid #4 option. 

If there is any money to be spent beyond that, I would look to find an answer at SS or 3B. I'd love one of the big boys on the market as a year-too-early splash, but even a guy like Kyle Seager or bringing back Iglesias or Galvis would make a difference. I'd give Mateo, Jones, and Urias a chance to get playing time at the other spot and turn to Vavra or someone else if he proves himself in the minors while the trio of Mateo, Jones and Urias struggle the first couple months. 

To me, 2022 is still about the build and testing guys. It's still going to be a rough year, but it should be a better year (not that it can get much worse). It should be one where we take a step forward from a 100+ loss team to a 70 win team. And this offseason is part of that. The teams should now be looking to not necessary win as many games as possible, but add guys that will take pressure off the young guys you do need to grow while, maybe, putting guys in place on the roster that can be pieces for a team that does win as the building up will take several years. 

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2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Severino has a 754 career OPS vs lefties.  That is the way I see him being used.  Lefties and pitchers he has a history of hitting.   It has been mentioned in another thread that Severino did not block balls well in April.  Cold weather may be part of that.   He is not as good at blocking balls as a very good defensive catcher but in 50 games a year he at least is likely to get hurt less which may help his mobility.

My main thing about Severino is that playing him vs pitchers he can hit does not leave a big hole in the lineup.  Its hard to say that about most backup catchers.  And the O's playing in the AL East  can't afford to have that hole at catcher and expect to have a winning season.  Maybe teams with better offenses can have a no hit backup catcher but I don't think the O's are to that point yet.

Can they afford to have a catcher who sucks at pitch framing, blocking pitches and making catch and tag plays?

I don’t think the O’s will be a winning team next year in any event.   Hopefully they’ll make some moves to be a lot better than last year.   Upgrading to Rutschman is a big part of that.   I’d prefer that the backup be someone who’s worked with some good pitching staffs who can work with Rutschman to try to guide our staff along.   Severino doesn’t fit that mold, and he’s expensive to boot.   I don’t see him being the choice.  

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Re: relievers, who cares as long as they're one year deals? In the past the O's have made terrible reliever FA signings because they were for like 3 years. In the baseball world, money is kind of meaningless in a single year, at least that's how I think of it. It's locking yourself up for multiple years that's dangerous. 

I tend to agree this team needs some adults in the middle of the bullpen. Guys like Sulser who are at least reliable in there. Now I'm not sure about $7 million - I think we can find a couple decent pieces for less than that. Under the radar guys. 

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18 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

This whole speculation spread is BS, built on wild ass speculation.

We dont really know what this team is willing to spend in the off-season??????

 

Trying to figure out what folks here would do as a GM is one of the more interesting and thought-provoking things to do on a board like this.  

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2 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I don't disagree with the idea, but the execution proposed in the OP. I would not spend money on an utility infielder or relievers...yet. I strongly believe that the bullpen will be much better if the rotation isn't a complete pile of garbage. Means and, eventually, Grayson Rodriguez helps. Giving some more starts to the young guys like Baumann, Zimmermann, Lowther, Akin, Tyler Wells, etc. makes sense for two spots which will allow for an opportunity for the guys, but also make them earn it in spring training and throughout the season (either by their performance at AAA or in the Majors). That leaves 2 spots to fill in the rotation: one for the length of the season and one until Rodriguez comes up. That is where I'd spend the money. I imagine Kershaw, Scherzer, Gausman, Ray, Rodon, etc. are all beyond where the Orioles can/should go. Perhaps someone like Anthony DeSclafani, Eduardo Rodriguez, or Jonathan Gray would be an option? Plus someone closer to the Matt Harvey mold as the placeholder for Rodriguez. It's not that exciting, but it at least gives us a couple mid-rotation types in Means and the one free agent arm plus someone to eat innings and take some pressure off the pen. Ideally, you'd also have Rodriguez pitching well by year's end (albeit with some growing pains) and at least one of the other guys pitching well enough to be considered a solid #4 option. 

If there is any money to be spent beyond that, I would look to find an answer at SS or 3B. I'd love one of the big boys on the market as a year-too-early splash, but even a guy like Kyle Seager or bringing back Iglesias or Galvis would make a difference. I'd give Mateo, Jones, and Urias a chance to get playing time at the other spot and turn to Vavra or someone else if he proves himself in the minors while the trio of Mateo, Jones and Urias struggle the first couple months. 

To me, 2022 is still about the build and testing guys. It's still going to be a rough year, but it should be a better year (not that it can get much worse). It should be one where we take a step forward from a 100+ loss team to a 70 win team. And this offseason is part of that. The teams should now be looking to not necessary win as many games as possible, but add guys that will take pressure off the young guys you do need to grow while, maybe, putting guys in place on the roster that can be pieces for a team that does win as the building up will take several years. 

Exactly this. Does not have to be all or nothing, go to $250M or waste Rutschman. See what Elias can do with a $70M payroll, invest in a starting pitcher or two who could help us, otherwise fill holes with veterans. If it looks like we are more competitive then take the next step. 

The one difference I have from OP is the guys you list will probably take 4+ years. I think that would be a wise investment with our lack of pitching depth and good timing with our rebuild. If it turns out the rebuild fizzles, a good pitcher with several years remaining could be flipped.

I'd rather prioritize one good pitcher on a 4-5 year deal versus paying Pedro and additional bullpen arms. 

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Agree on not spending on FA relievers, pretty much ever, except for a situation where you need 1 last piece to get over the top (legitimate WS contender). We have enough #4/#5 SP types where their stuff could play up in shorter stints. Big fan of converting failed starters to relievers, and I'm just not on board with relievers soaking up payroll.

If I have $40MM to add, I'd much rather the Orioles commit $25-33MM to one of the premier SS options like Correa/Story (and this would even include a 1 year pillow contract to someone like Story trying to go for FA the following year)

+ explore extending Means for 2-3 years buying out ARB because after the crackdown on foreign substances, and his fondness for the team, he might be willing to bet less on himself for added security.

+ look at adding another SP or two on 1 year deals in the Harvey style to eat innings + act as a mentor to some of the younger SP coming up.

+ look at locking up Adley on a Longoria type deal (depending on framework of new CBA).

Basically, I'm more in line with Studs + Duds approach than 5 mediocre guys eating up 40MM. The core of our "contending team" in a few years SHOULD be extremely cheap. 

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2 minutes ago, OrangeTurtle said:

Agree on not spending on FA relievers, pretty much ever, except for a situation where you need 1 last piece to get over the top (legitimate WS contender). We have enough #4/#5 SP types where their stuff could play up in shorter stints. Big fan of converting failed starters to relievers, and I'm just not on board with relievers soaking up payroll.

If I have $40MM to add, I'd much rather the Orioles commit $25-33MM to one of the premier SS options like Correa/Story (and this would even include a 1 year pillow contract to someone like Story trying to go for FA the following year)

+ explore extending Means for 2-3 years buying out ARB because after the crackdown on foreign substances, and his fondness for the team, he might be willing to bet less on himself for added security.

+ look at adding another SP or two on 1 year deals in the Harvey style to eat innings + act as a mentor to some of the younger SP coming up.

+ look at locking up Adley on a Longoria type deal (depending on framework of new CBA).

Basically, I'm more in line with Studs + Duds approach than 5 mediocre guys eating up 40MM. The core of our "contending team" in a few years SHOULD be extremely cheap. 

Yep…Stars and scrubs is the way to go.

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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep…Stars and scrubs is the way to go.

Absolutely. Ideally you get 1 guy you believe can be here for the run and if it's a SS or 2B (Semien?), that means guys like Westburg/Gunnar/Norby can be your attractive prospects to ship off for an elite SP in a year or two to add to GrayRod/Hall/Means + whatever shakes out between Baumann/Bradish/etc.

Looking at going after Burnes or Marquez or someone of that ilk (essentially our Verlander/Greinke to the Astros plan).

I figure the Mets may look to offer Thor a QO, but if not, maybe him as a rebound pillow 1 year deal candidate? I'd also explore Glasnow with the understanding he won't actually be ready to throw 120+ innings til like 2023 or 2024.

Orioles need to target high upside low floor guys cause they're going to need a little luck to be real contenders as soon as 2023.

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5 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

So calling out each other's opinion as BS is a worthy discussion?

Sure.  The conversation is about what is best to do with whatever money we have.

Where WC loses me isn't at the amount of money he wants to spend.  Its that he wants to maximize the years of our best players.  He is right.  That should be the goal.  But his plan doesn't do that unless he has a different definition of it than most people.

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12 minutes ago, OrangeTurtle said:

Absolutely. Ideally you get 1 guy you believe can be here for the run and if it's a SS or 2B (Semien?), that means guys like Westburg/Gunnar/Norby can be your attractive prospects to ship off for an elite SP in a year or two to add to GrayRod/Hall/Means + whatever shakes out between Baumann/Bradish/etc.

Looking at going after Burnes or Marquez or someone of that ilk (essentially our Verlander/Greinke to the Astros plan).

I figure the Mets may look to offer Thor a QO, but if not, maybe him as a rebound pillow 1 year deal candidate? I'd also explore Glasnow with the understanding he won't actually be ready to throw 120+ innings til like 2023 or 2024.

Orioles need to target high upside low floor guys cause they're going to need a little luck to be real contenders as soon as 2023.

I just don't see OPACY and the ALE with the O's as being what pitchers are looking for in terms of a pillow contract...unless the have no other options and at that point, do we even want those guys?  

I would certainly like to add Thor but I would think we would have to give him a contract that is likely to risky and not appealing.

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The one thing I think everyone agrees on is that there needs to be investment in the ML roster and I too like the idea of not wasting time as our young talent begins arriving. 
 

It is difficult to understate how much better this team would look with even average pitching.  Even before Adley and Grayson arrive. 
 

I do not think it would be wise to trade our depth for someone like Price for one year. that.  I just don’t think trading even long shots with 6 years of value are worth one year of Price.  Regardless of how much salary is paid by someone else. 
 

I think someone like Stroman is a different bird. He is exactly the kind of guy that is worth chatting with on a longer term deal. 
 

I love the idea of going after one of the high end middle infielders. 
 

If the Os are willing to spend 20-60 mil there are good deals to be had. Even if Elias has to overpay. 
 

I think the idea of trading Mullins, Means or Mancini is viable but I think our high price tag leaves Mancini over priced. 
 

I think Severino will not be an Oriole in the future. 
 

But it is time to invest in the club at the ML level. I remain cautiously optimistic. 

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