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Frobby

162 games of Ryan Mountcastle

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5 hours ago, jamalshw said:

Or 3B...or even LF. 

Still, he's a solid piece for the team. Once Adley is up and if the team can find someone for at least one of the infield spots this winter and the offense is certainly starting to come together and form something that is not too hard to get excited about in the next couple years. Now we need to start to see someONE similarly step up on the pitching side. 

Just ONE, please! More than one of course but for ONCE someone to really come up and dominate hitters. Just burst onto the ML screen.

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It's amazing that he's still hovering around 1.0 WAR, a level that fangraphs deems "scrub". I get that his defensive position factors heavily into that, but to me a 1.0 WAR guy is far from a scrub. That terminology should be updated IMO. But also, it just goes to show how good he's going to have to be with the bat to provide value. I think he will, but jeez. 

https://www.camdenchat.com/2021/9/17/22678680/the-top-10-orioles-in-war-this-season-its-an-interesting-list

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6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Didn't get to see it last night when he did it.  That was a hell of a shot.  Didn't have him breaking Cal's rookie record for homers this year but I also shouldn't be surprised.  

It’s worth mentioning, I guess, that in 1982 AL teams averaged 0.92 HR per game, compared to 1.27 per game today.   And, Memorial Stadium was much more HR stingy than Camden Yards.  Mountcastle has hit 19 of his 29 dingers in the friendly confines of OPACY.   Cal hit only 11 of his 28 at home.   So, I think Cal’s 28 homers as a rookie was a more difficult feat than Mountcastle’s 29+.    Still, it’s a cool accomplishment that MC can be proud of.   

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On 9/16/2021 at 2:09 PM, UMDTerrapins said:

That is interesting! Funny how two of our best Rule V picks were also not our top picks. 

Your list is also a reminder for me that it's not uncommon for guys to take 5+ years from their draft year to become productive ML regulars. I gotta keep that in mind with our current position prospects. I think I'm reasonable about my expectations for our prospects, but tend to think of them breaking through sooner than I ought to. 

Well, we did draft almost exclusively college guys this year, including some seniors and even a grad student.   Those guys should progress through the system at a faster than average pace.

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11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s worth mentioning, I guess, that in 1982 AL teams averaged 0.92 HR per game, compared to 1.27 per game today.   And, Memorial Stadium was much more HR stingy than Camden Yards.  Mountcastle has hit 19 of his 29 dingers in the friendly confines of OPACY.   Cal hit only 11 of his 28 at home.   So, I think Cal’s 28 homers as a rookie was a more difficult feat than Mountcastle’s 29+.    Still, it’s a cool accomplishment that MC can be proud of.   

I see where you're coming from, I also don't totally disagree.

But I do believe you're leaving out the fact that RMC is facing pitchers with better stuff, too.  I am assuming the average fastball velocity is significantly faster now than it was in 1982.  Part of that is how the speed was measured back then but I think we all should be able to agree that pitchers have overall better stuff now than they did back then.

Maybe that makes the environment a wash, maybe it doesn't.  It certainly is a more homer friendly environment overall, too.  Jackrabbit ball, hitters selling out for power, etc.  It's just a different game.  

Overall, I agree though..very cool accomplishment.  

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31 minutes ago, interloper said:

It's amazing that he's still hovering around 1.0 WAR, a level that fangraphs deems "scrub". I get that his defensive position factors heavily into that, but to me a 1.0 WAR guy is far from a scrub. That terminology should be updated IMO. But also, it just goes to show how good he's going to have to be with the bat to provide value. I think he will, but jeez. 

https://www.camdenchat.com/2021/9/17/22678680/the-top-10-orioles-in-war-this-season-its-an-interesting-list

Maybe scrub is not the most flattering term, but you're not going to win many games if you base your team around 1 WAR players. 

Mountcastle has a 113 OPS+ and has had little defensive value, and has DH'd 40 times.  He has promise, he could be a fairly valuable player if he can manage to hit for a higher average and/or draw more walks while playing a decent first base.  He really needs to play first and OPS 125 or 130 or so.

But, yea, the bar is high for a 1B/DH.  It's really not hard to find a guy with little or no defensive value who can OPS+ 110 or so.  That's Pedro Alvarez as an Oriole, or Larry Sheets, Mark Reynolds, Javy Lopez, Aubrey Huff.  Guys who're willing to come to Baltimore for a couple years and $6-8M.

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32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s worth mentioning, I guess, that in 1982 AL teams averaged 0.92 HR per game, compared to 1.27 per game today.   And, Memorial Stadium was much more HR stingy than Camden Yards.  Mountcastle has hit 19 of his 29 dingers in the friendly confines of OPACY.   Cal hit only 11 of his 28 at home.   So, I think Cal’s 28 homers as a rookie was a more difficult feat than Mountcastle’s 29+.    Still, it’s a cool accomplishment that MC can be proud of.   

That's important, but I think the bigger contextual difference is that Ripken was a 21-year-old shortstop, while Mountcastle is a 24-year-old 1B/DH.  I don't want to sound too down on Mountcastle, because I'm not, but those are epochal differences.

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11 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That's important, but I think the bigger contextual difference is that Ripken was a 21-year-old shortstop, while Mountcastle is a 24-year-old 1B/DH.  I don't want to sound too down on Mountcastle, because I'm not, but those are epochal differences.

So are you saying I shouldn’t book my tickets for Mountcastle’s HOF induction ceremony yet?

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Maybe scrub is not the most flattering term, but you're not going to win many games if you base your team around 1 WAR players. 

Mountcastle has a 113 OPS+ and has had little defensive value, and has DH'd 40 times.  He has promise, he could be a fairly valuable player if he can manage to hit for a higher average and/or draw more walks while playing a decent first base.  He really needs to play first and OPS 125 or 130 or so.

But, yea, the bar is high for a 1B/DH.  It's really not hard to find a guy with little or no defensive value who can OPS+ 110 or so.  That's Pedro Alvarez as an Oriole, or Larry Sheets, Mark Reynolds, Javy Lopez, Aubrey Huff.  Guys who're willing to come to Baltimore for a couple years and $6-8M.

Yeah, for sure. And I get that. It's just like, would you call any of those players you named scrubs? I wouldn't. They're decent, if one-note, MLers. Anyway. 

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On 9/16/2021 at 12:54 PM, interloper said:

 

I'm just glad we can put the whole "BUT WHERE'S HE GONNA PLAY" thing to bed. He's a first baseman, and a real solid one, it turns out. At least solid enough that we don't mention his defense too much except to point out a nice play. I don't have any problem with him being at 1B long term. I like his athleticism over there, he's quick, he's made some really nice picks this year. He looks settled and comfortable now which, to your point, might be part of why he's clicked at the plate the 2nd half of the year.

Actually, at first, he’s pretty bad. At Baseball Savant, he’s ranked 27th of 35 first basemen with -1 runs prevented and -2 OAA. Trey is ranked 15, with zero/zero, which I guess is considered exactly average, and the leader is Rizzi with 6 and 8 respectively. Vlad jr is horrible, with minus 4 and minus 6 respectively, but I think he hits a lot better than MC. Yup, just checked… he hits a bit better than MC. With a WRC of 173 and bWAR of 6.1, the Jays are probably ok with lousy Defense. 

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