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Tim Dierkes: Orioles should trade John Means

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29 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Why is everyone glossing over these facts below when we talk about trying to “compete” in 2022/2023:

1.  TB, Tor, Bos, and the NYY are all on pace to be 90 win+ teams this year.

2. TB and Tor are both young teams with loaded farm systems.

3.  BOS and NYY are 2/3 of the biggest spenders in MLB.  Year in, Year out. 

You guys think it’s ownership “holding us back from competing” NO, it’s those 4 teams that are holding us back. 

I know we haven’t competed since the 2016 WC game. 2024 seems like a tough pill to swallow. However, “going for it now” is how an 8 year rebuild becomes 16 again. 

Like it or not we’re going to take our lumps next year anyway. You just don’t go from 49 wins to 82. Not in this division, with those 4 teams. 

What is Means doing for us in 2022/2023?  Except getting older and having a chance for more injuries. See Matt Boyd w/Det for Ex.  
 

What is Mullins doing for us in 2022/2023?  Can he really put up 30/30 again?  Sell High!!!

At this point when we make trades, you target players still in the minors, and get the best possible return regardless of position. Why???  Because then you use your excess prospects to fill in the holes you have in 2024.  
 

But everyone go ahead and wish for that 16 year rebuild. 

Is 2024 really a tough pill to swallow, when I've become so disinterested in what they are doing at the major league level, I don't even check the score?  Might just be me, but I am so numb to the product, it couldn't matter less if this team is competitive in 2023 or 2025.  

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36 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Why is everyone glossing over these facts below when we talk about trying to “compete” in 2022/2023:

1.  TB, Tor, Bos, and the NYY are all on pace to be 90 win+ teams this year.

2. TB and Tor are both young teams with loaded farm systems.

3.  BOS and NYY are 2/3 of the biggest spenders in MLB.  Year in, Year out. 

You guys think it’s ownership “holding us back from competing” NO, it’s those 4 teams that are holding us back. 

I know we haven’t competed since the 2016 WC game. 2024 seems like a tough pill to swallow. However, “going for it now” is how an 8 year rebuild becomes 16 again. 

Like it or not we’re going to take our lumps next year anyway. You just don’t go from 49 wins to 82. Not in this division, with those 4 teams. 

What is Means doing for us in 2022/2023?  Except getting older and having a chance for more injuries. See Matt Boyd w/Det for Ex.  
 

What is Mullins doing for us in 2022/2023?  Can he really put up 30/30 again?  Sell High!!!

At this point when we make trades, you target players still in the minors, and get the best possible return regardless of position. Why???  Because then you use your excess prospects to fill in the holes you have in 2024.  
 

But everyone go ahead and wish for that 16 year rebuild. 

They can't sit around and hope the AL East drops back. They have some talent in the MiL and should have some money. 

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3 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

They can't sit around and hope the AL East drops back. They have some talent in the MiL and should have some money. 

Yes. You sit back and wait until that core talent in the minors is all ready to come up. Sure, we’ll definitely see AR and Grod next year. We’ll also likely see Neustrom and Stowers. However, those aren’t enough pieces. They’re enough pieces to make the games more enjoyable, but they’re not enough pieces to make us competitive because of the pitching and the holes at other positions. 

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11 hours ago, Pickles said:

It isn't impossible for them to trade Means and improve next year.  It's just highly unlikely.

When the market is unfavorable, you don't make the deal.  That's how you "beat" the market.

Means pitching like a top 10 pitcher in July gets you two top 50 prospects.  So you wait.

And if it never materializes, if he gets injured or regresses, what did you miss out on?  Josh Bell (The prospect we received from the LAD for George Sherrill)?

That won't kill your rebuild.  Trading your best pitcher, and one of your best developmental successes, for nothing will.

I'm just saying, I think we overvalue Means on here.  And I get it, I really like him, too.  It's nice to have a guy come out of nowhere and succeed.  But the emotional attachment to him doesn't justify some massive haul.  He's not a top 10 pitcher, although he's had a couple stretches where he's pitched like one.

 

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1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm just saying, I think we overvalue Means on here.  And I get it, I really like him, too.  It's nice to have a guy come out of nowhere and succeed.  But the emotional attachment to him doesn't justify some massive haul.  He's not a top 10 pitcher, although he's had a couple stretches where he's pitched like one.

 

I don’t think we’d get the return that we would’ve gotten at the trade deadline had he not gotten hurt, but we can’t worry about that. I still think we’d get a rerun that we should deal him for. 

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15 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Yes. You sit back and wait until that core talent in the minors is all ready to come up. Sure, we’ll definitely see AR and Grod next year. We’ll also likely see Neustrom and Stowers. However, those aren’t enough pieces. They’re enough pieces to make the games more enjoyable, but they’re not enough pieces to make us competitive because of the pitching and the holes at other positions. 

I don't agree with your approach at all.  The O's need to add a SP, a  closer and a 2B/3B  from FA.   They are that close to be an 82 win team with Adley, Grayson and Neustrom coming to help.   The other 4 teams in the division are not going to win as many games because the O's are going to be ready to compete next year.  

I am not in favor of wasting the Adley/Grayson years.

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25 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm just saying, I think we overvalue Means on here.  And I get it, I really like him, too.  It's nice to have a guy come out of nowhere and succeed.  But the emotional attachment to him doesn't justify some massive haul.  He's not a top 10 pitcher, although he's had a couple stretches where he's pitched like one.

 

I take your point, and you are correct, he’s not an elite top of the rotation guy. But you are still undervaluing him. His injury and his fade after the All-Star break can be blamed on last year’s weird season. But he has still been successful. I don’t think he will bring back a Bedard return, But I do think he can get two legit pieces and a lottery ticket. 

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20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't agree with your approach at all.  The O's need to add a SP, a  closer and a 2B/3B  from FA.   They are that close to be an 82 win team with Adley, Grayson and Neustrom coming to help.   The other 4 team in the division are not going to win as many game because the O's are going to be ready to compete next year.  

I am not in favor of wasting the Adley/Grayson years.

I don't think anyone is in favor of wasting the halcyon years of Adley/Grayson, but you lost me at Neustrom coming to help.  This is still a far cry from an 82 win team even with an additional SP and a closer next year.

There's going to be an innings limit on G-Rod next year, we won't see him throw a full ML season until 2023.  

 

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Just now, Philip said:

I take your point, and you are correct, he’s not an elite top of the rotation guy. But you are still undervaluing him. His injury and his fade after the All-Star break can be blamed on last year’s weird season. But he has still been successful. I don’t think he will bring back a Bedard return, But I do think he can get two legit pieces and a lottery ticket. 

If we can agree that he's not an elite, top of the rotation guy then I am not undervaluing him.  That's what he is.

 

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2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think anyone is in favor of wasting the halcyon years of Adley/Grayson, but you lost me at Neustrom coming to help.  This is still a far cry from an 82 win team even with an additional SP and a closer next year.

There's going to be an innings limit on G-Rod next year, we won't see him throw a full ML season until 2023.  

 

So they may have to add a the deadline.  Many teams do.

I don't know what your problem with Neustrom is.  He is a platoon OF vs right-handed pitching.  Look at his splits at AAA.

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So they may have to add a the deadline.  Many teams do.

I don't know what your problem with Neustrom is.  He is a platoon OF vs right-handed pitching.  Look at his splits at AAA.

Right, he's a platoon guy.  I don't know how prevalent platooning is right now, I think most teams are trying to find full time talent, not platoons.  Maybe Neustrom works in a 4th outfielder spot somehow but the fact that you put him in the same sentence with Adley/G-Rod was weird.

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20 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

If we can agree that he's not an elite, top of the rotation guy then I am not undervaluing him.  That's what he is.

 

Of course but we are disagreeing on the return. You’re suggesting that because he’s not X he won’t bring back Y and I’m agreeing that he’s not X, but I still think he can bring back Y.

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3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Right, he's a platoon guy.  I don't know how prevalent platooning is right now, I think most teams are trying to find full time talent, not platoons.  Maybe Neustrom works in a 4th outfielder spot somehow but the fact that you put him in the same sentence with Adley/G-Rod was weird.

He is in the same sentence because he is ready to come up and help next year.  Righthanders are at least two thirds of the pitchers the O's see so he could play a lot especially if Hays does not hit righties well.  McKenna will effect Neustrom's playing time.  But with Hays and Santander both injury prone Neustrom could fill in for them.  I like the outfield depth the O's have.

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37 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't agree with your approach at all.  The O's need to add a SP, a  closer and a 2B/3B  from FA.   They are that close to be an 82 win team with Adley, Grayson and Neustrom coming to help.   The other 4 teams in the division are not going to win as many games because the O's are going to be ready to compete next year.  

I am not in favor of wasting the Adley/Grayson years.

Look at the pitching. There will be 5 AL teams make the playoffs. The 5th rated pitching staff gives up 3.79 earned runs per game. We're at 5.89 earned runs per game. We've given up 272 more earned runs. That's not a little bit. That's a massive difference. 

We've also scored 114 runs less than the 5th highest scoring team in the AL. 

If you look at it in terms of an 82 win season, we score half a run per game less than the middle of the road offenses. We give up 1.51 more earned runs per game. 

I hope Grayson is the greatest thing since sliced bread. And I honestly think Adley will help the pitching staff. But without 4-5 more upgrades to the pitching staff, we still have a long way to go. 

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4 minutes ago, Philip said:

Of course but we are disagreeing on the return. You’re suggesting that because he’s not X he won’t bring back Y and I’m agreeing that he’s not X, but I still think he can bring back Y.

I ****ing hate algebra, dude.  The minute they started introducing letters into numbers, I lost all interest.  

"Solve for both X & Y" Answer:  Who gives AF.  Solve for A&F.

Yes, we disagree on the return, provided we're agreeing that Y is two top flight prospects.  I disagree that he can net us that return because he's not an elite starter.

However as I said before, the market will tell us what his value is if he's moved.

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

He is in the same sentence because he is ready to come up and help next year.  Righthanders are at least two thirds of the pitchers the O's see so he could play a lot especially if Hays does not hit righties well.  McKenna will effect Neustrom's playing time.  But with Hays and Santander both injury prone Neustrom could fill in for them.  I like the outfield depth the O's have.

 I like the depth, too.   

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