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Tim Dierkes: Orioles should trade John Means

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In 2010, the AL East had 2 teams win 95 games or more and 2 others that won 85 or more games.

In 2011, the AL East had 3 90 win teams and the BJs were a 500 team.

The Os failed to win 70 games in either of those years.
 

In 2012, 2 teams failed to win more than 73 games and 3 teams had 90 or more wins..with the Os finishing second in the division and winning the WC.
 

So yea, things can turn around quickly and what happened the year before has no bearing on the following year.

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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Why is everyone glossing over these facts below when we talk about trying to “compete” in 2022/2023:

1.  TB, Tor, Bos, and the NYY are all on pace to be 90 win+ teams this year.

2. TB and Tor are both young teams with loaded farm systems.

3.  BOS and NYY are 2/3 of the biggest spenders in MLB.  Year in, Year out. 

You guys think it’s ownership “holding us back from competing” NO, it’s those 4 teams that are holding us back. 

I know we haven’t competed since the 2016 WC game. 2024 seems like a tough pill to swallow. However, “going for it now” is how an 8 year rebuild becomes 16 again. 

Like it or not we’re going to take our lumps next year anyway. You just don’t go from 49 wins to 82. Not in this division, with those 4 teams. 

What is Means doing for us in 2022/2023?  Except getting older and having a chance for more injuries. See Matt Boyd w/Det for Ex.  
 

What is Mullins doing for us in 2022/2023?  Can he really put up 30/30 again?  Sell High!!!

At this point when we make trades, you target players still in the minors, and get the best possible return regardless of position. Why???  Because then you use your excess prospects to fill in the holes you have in 2024.  
 

But everyone go ahead and wish for that 16 year rebuild. 

I don’t think many posters expect the O’s could be over .500 next year.   The other 4 teams in the East collectively are about as strong as I can ever remember.   You are absolutely right about that.   

“Compete” is an ambiguous word, especially as applied to a team that’s won under 60 games in the last three seasons (probably under 55, but I won’t assume that just yet).   I might say that a team that wins 68-70 games is “competing,” at least in comparison with this crew.   And I think that’s a realistic goal for next year.    It will take some work to accomplish that.    
 

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13 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Solve for both X & Y" Answer:  Who gives AF.  Solve for A&F.

Oh that made me laugh so hard, my wife had to tell me to shut up and fold the clothes.
So I’m folding the clothes, but I’m still laughing.

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41 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Look at the pitching. There will be 5 AL teams make the playoffs. The 5th rated pitching staff gives up 3.79 earned runs per game. We're at 5.89 earned runs per game. We've given up 272 more earned runs. That's not a little bit. That's a massive difference. 

We've also scored 114 runs less than the 5th highest scoring team in the AL. 

If you look at it in terms of an 82 win season, we score half a run per game less than the middle of the road offenses. We give up 1.51 more earned runs per game. 

I hope Grayson is the greatest thing since sliced bread. And I honestly think Adley will help the pitching staff. But without 4-5 more upgrades to the pitching staff, we still have a long way to go. 

Your numbers are all about a developing team that has auditioned a lot of players.  And they have found some keepers.  They go into next year with a lot of spots filled and with more depth.

You have to look at what is going on with he team.  Who are keepers.  Who are showing they deserve to be on the team next year.

Means, Grayson in May,  FA SP,   then Akin is developing in the last month,  Ellis is surprising everyone.  Tyler Wells gets stretched out in ST,  Baumann was too good for AAA,   Zimmermann has a shot to start as a 4th or 5th starter.  There is 8 guys that will be sorted out in ST.

O's need to add a closer,  Sulser, Greene looks real good since mid August,  Lopez belong is relief where his ERA is in the low 2.00s, Scott was good in the 1st half before he hurt his knee.   Add the guys that don't make the rotation and there is 13.

Kremer, Lowther, A Wells, Bradish, Smith, H Harvey, Bautista, Bishop, Diplan, Tate and maybe Fry at AAA. Some of those guys are bound to show they are ready for the majors at some point. Every one of them has options.

Adley will make everyone in the lineup better.  Middle of the order bat as long has they don't try to catch him too many games.  I like him catching 110 games.  Severino plays vs lefties  because he hits them well and pitchers he has a history of hitting.

Mullins and Mountcastle are studs.  Hays, Santander, Mancini are solid when healthy and rested.  Urias has earned a starting role.   Mateo at SS looks like he will hit for average with a little power.  O's needs to add a 2B/3B and a UIF that can hit some.  Neustrom, McKenna and Stewart can compete for playing time.  All three have options and are making the minimum.

I think this team is a 5 run offense because of adding Adley, a  FA 2B/3B, FA UIF and Neustrom.  Thaty gives the team depth that they have not had in the past.

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2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Why is everyone glossing over these facts below when we talk about trying to “compete” in 2022/2023:

1.  TB, Tor, Bos, and the NYY are all on pace to be 90 win+ teams this year.

2. TB and Tor are both young teams with loaded farm systems.

3.  BOS and NYY are 2/3 of the biggest spenders in MLB.  Year in, Year out. 

You guys think it’s ownership “holding us back from competing” NO, it’s those 4 teams that are holding us back. 

I know we haven’t competed since the 2016 WC game. 2024 seems like a tough pill to swallow. However, “going for it now” is how an 8 year rebuild becomes 16 again. 

Like it or not we’re going to take our lumps next year anyway. You just don’t go from 49 wins to 82. Not in this division, with those 4 teams. 

What is Means doing for us in 2022/2023?  Except getting older and having a chance for more injuries. See Matt Boyd w/Det for Ex.  
 

What is Mullins doing for us in 2022/2023?  Can he really put up 30/30 again?  Sell High!!!

At this point when we make trades, you target players still in the minors, and get the best possible return regardless of position. Why???  Because then you use your excess prospects to fill in the holes you have in 2024.  
 

But everyone go ahead and wish for that 16 year rebuild. 

Why were we glossing over everything in 2011? 

1. The Yanks, Red Sox and Rays all won 90+ games. 

2. The Blue Jays were at .500 but their whole rotation was 26 or younger, they had Bautista, Encarnacion, a good amount of talent.

3. Boston and the Yanks were two of the three biggest spenders in MLB every year.

They hadn't played a meaningful game since 1997.  Machado was probably a few years away.  The cavalry of Matusz, Arrieta, Bergeson, Tillman, etc were a trainwreck.  Duquette was something like their 6th choice for a new GM, because the first five rejected them. They were running out retreads like Derrek Lee and 36-year-old Vlad every day.  Britton looked like a decent 4th starter, Schoop and Bundy were probably 2-3 years away.

Clearly they needed to trade Markakis, Hardy, Jim Johnson, Reynolds, and maybe even Wieters or Jones for the right package because there was no way this team was competing for 3, 4, 5 years.

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Your numbers are all about a developing team that has auditioned a lot of players.  And they have found some keepers.  They go into next year with a lot of spots filled and with more depth.

You have to look at what is going on with he team.  Who are keepers.  Who are showing they deserve to be on the team next year.

Means, Grayson in May,  FA SP,   then Akin is developing in the last month,  Ellis is surprising everyone.  Tyler Wells gets stretched out in ST,  Baumann was too good for AAA,   Zimmermann has a shot to start as a 4th or 5th starter.  There is 8 guys that will be sorted out in ST.

O's need to add a closer,  Sulser, Greene looks real good since mid August,  Lopez belong is relief where his ERA is in the low 2.00s, Scott was good in the 1st half before he hurt his knee.   Add the guys that don't make the rotation and there is 13.

Kremer, Lowther, A Wells, Bradish, Smith, H Harvey, Bautista, Bishop, Diplan, Tate and maybe Fry at AAA. Some of those guys are bound to show they are ready for the majors at some point. Every one of them has options.

I don't disagree with much of what you're saying here. But let me ask you. You've listed a lot of pitchers you believe are ready and need innings to show they belong. With that being the case, do you want FA pitchers signed this winter? You mentioned a closer. Would you sign a starter? 2 starters? A bulk guy? A late inning reliever? 

Or would you want to leave opportunities open for the guys you listed?

I understand it'll wind up being some of both but what say you about signing FA pitchers this winter?

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39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think many posters expect the O’s could be over .500 next year.   The other 4 teams in the East collectively are about as strong as I can ever remember.   You are absolutely right about that.   

“Compete” is an ambiguous word, especially as applied to a team that’s won under 60 games in the last three seasons (probably under 55, but I won’t assume that just yet).   I might say that a team that wins 68-70 games is “competing,” at least in comparison with this crew.   And I think that’s a realistic goal for next year.    It will take some work to accomplish that.    
 

I don't expect the Orioles to be in actual contention for a playoff spot next year, and the year after could be a stretch.  But at some point you have to field a real team and start winning 65, 70, 75 games, and next year is as good as any.

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3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think this is true at all.  First of all we won’t really see any signs right now anyway.

But secondly, the Os decided to stand Pat the deadline and Elias had talked about moving in a different direction.  
 

I think everything that has been done and said is pointing to them wanting to commit..we just don’t know to what level.

If you think Elias is going to tell us the truth, I have some nice beachfront property in New Orleans to sell you.  

What has actually been done to make you think so.  

 

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10 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

If you think Elias is going to tell us the truth, I have some nice beachfront property in New Orleans to sell you.  

What has actually been done to make you think so.  

 

I already answered this.  

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17 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Gotta trade him. We’re definitely going to be terrible again next year. 2023 would be a 2012 type miracle. We need pieces for 2023+.  Keep stockpiling the system. It’ll pay off in a big way and not just an ALDS and WC win. 

 

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If there isn’t going to be any ownership commitment for 2022, im much more inclined to deal Means and Mullins but it depends on what they get back.  The packages have to be really good.  

SG's answer is the correct answer. If ownership wants to compete sooner, they can. If they're not ready to spend for whatever reason, you go sportsfan's route. Both are plausible in theory.

The one thing you don't often see is a competitive team that's purely home grown. Even the Rays bring in a lot of outsiders. I'd expect a bunch of trades starting this offseason and through next offseason. Our top 30 list will look a lot different, both with additions and subtractions. The 2023 and 2024 Orioles are not going to be comprised of only guys that our in our control today. It won't even be close I'd wager.

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think many posters expect the O’s could be over .500 next year.   The other 4 teams in the East collectively are about as strong as I can ever remember.   You are absolutely right about that.   

“Compete” is an ambiguous word, especially as applied to a team that’s won under 60 games in the last three seasons (probably under 55, but I won’t assume that just yet).   I might say that a team that wins 68-70 games is “competing,” at least in comparison with this crew.   And I think that’s a realistic goal for next year.    It will take some work to accomplish that.    
 

Everybody talks about four 90-win teams are forgetting that those guys are winning 90 games because they’re playing a 43 win team in the Orioles. If we improve, they are going to win fewer than 90 games each. Can we win an additional five games against each of the other four teams in this division? Of course we can. If our bullpen and other areas of expertise weren’t  so awful we probably would have this season.

So the fact that we are doubtful to win 45 games and those guys are all winning 90 to 95 means absolutely nothing. And as I have constantly said, success is not incremental but transformational.

We are suddenly going to bloom from 43 wins to 75 to 90 unless Mike likes drafting first too much.

Edited by Philip
Typo

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21 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Always have next year's version of Matt Harvey and Felix Hernandez.

The fact that Matt Harvey gave us that many innings is honestly a pretty stunning outcome. Can't expect that level of innings eater from those type of guys. 

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If Means is injured next year or the shoulder is bad again, I'll wish we traded him.

If he's fine and puts up a nice season, I'll be glad we didn't. 

I dunno how to take those thoughts and turn them into "we should" or "we shouldn't". I have no idea if we should. Ideally he's healthy and anchors a rotation of Means, Ellis, Gray-Rod eventually in 2022, Zimmermann, Akin/whoever.  

Rotations can become good very quickly. See Duquette's sudden transformation of the rotation. It could happen next year, or it could never happen with this group.

Who knows! Not us, certainly. 

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11 minutes ago, Philip said:

Everybody talks about for 91 teams are forgetting that those guys are winning 90 games because they’re playing a 43 win team in the Orioles. If we improve, they are going to win fewer than 90 games each. Can we win an additional five games against each of the other four teams in this division? Of course we can. If our bullpen and other areas of expertise weren’t  so awful we probably would have this season.

So the fact that we are doubtful to win 45 games and those guys are all winning 90 to 95 means absolutely nothing. And as I have constantly said, success is not incremental but transformational.

We are suddenly going to bloom from 43 wins to 75 to 90 unless Mike likes drafting first too much.

Well, even if they don’t all win 90 it still means something.   The division is very strong right now, even if you exclude games against the Orioles.   

By the way, you aren’t paying very close attention, because we’ve already won 47 games.   We are not “a 43 win team” or “doubtful to win 45 games.”   We’ve surpassed those numbers with 16 games to go and will probably finish with 50+ wins. 

I do agree with you that when the O’s improve it probably won’t be possible for all four of the others to win 90+.



 

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