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Tim Dierkes: Orioles should trade John Means

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15 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

I agree.

So adding a starter could mean 1) bring in a reliable guy knowing that is expensive or 2) bring in a slightly higher level Matt Harvey knowing the uncertain results or 3) look for a Tampa hybrid type guy to pitch 2-3-4 innings rather than a traditional starter type.

IMO, it's too early to see the O's spend big on a starter. And I don't think they'll spend big on a closer. But I hope they sign 3 guys capable of pitching 3 innings per outing. What do you think happens this offseason?

I would bet on a slightly higher level Matt Harvey.  The O's will probably bring back Matt Harvey too.  I'm not really looking forward to another season of a dumpster fire rotation.  The O's rotation heading into spring training:

1.  Means (who half the board wants to trade)

2.  Akin

3.  Ellis

4.  Harvey (if the O's bring him back)  \

5.  Some random guy

Injury replacements:  random AAA guy who is not a real prospect

This rotation makes the 2020 opening day rotation look like a huge upgrade, especially if Means is traded.  Is Akin, Ellis, and Harvey even a good AAA rotation?

 

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50 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, even if they don’t all win 90 it still means something.   The division is very strong right now, even if you exclude games against the Orioles.   

By the way, you aren’t paying very close attention, because we’ve already won 47 games.   We are not “a 43 win team” or “doubtful to win 45 games.”   We’ve surpassed those numbers with 16 games to go and will probably finish with 50+ wins. 

I do agree with you that when the O’s improve it probably won’t be possible for all four of the others to win 90+.



 

Oh you lawyers…

anyway, When we are discussing whether the team has won 43 games or 45 or 47, that Kind of ignores the fact that we are awful.

We could have won a meaningful number of games that we did not because of poor usage of available assets” and “a failure to learn from the experience of the season”. With that in mind, and the fact that the other teams in the division are far better ATM Doesn’t really matter. I strongly feel that the Yankees are going to completely collapse, but the Jays and Rays appear to be strong.

But it’s way too early to think about how many games we can win next year. It’s much more important to think about eliminating bad pieces, and acknowledging that some pieces that we hoped would be good, aren’t. And Trading Means is a good idea. He has value, and he has more value to the new team than he does to us, so of course trade if you can. A few other guys I would like to trade even if you can’t.

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16 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would bet on a slightly higher level Matt Harvey.  The O's will probably bring back Matt Harvey too.  I'm not really looking forward to another season of a dumpster fire rotation.  The O's rotation heading into spring training:

1.  Means (who half the board wants to trade)

2.  Akin

3.  Ellis

4.  Harvey (if the O's bring him back)  \

5.  Some random guy

Injury replacements:  random AAA guy who is not a real prospect

This rotation makes the 2020 opening day rotation look like a huge upgrade, especially if Means is traded.  Is Akin, Ellis, and Harvey even a good AAA rotation?

 

No it doesnt. Next season rotation will consist of our guys. Harvey won’t be back. Your prediction ignores literally every one of the guys we have in the high minors, including all the guys who have already debuted. Do you think the team is going to cut bait on Zimmerman, Kremer, Lowther, Wells, Wells, Baumann? Do you really think that none of those guys going to be an acceptable rotation piece?

With respect, that’s ridiculous. Some of those guys have certainly shown better than others, and injuries have taken a toll, but it is just not logical to assume that none of our prospects is going to be a productive piece. If that happens, they should just fire everybody.

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29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I do agree with you that when the O’s improve it probably won’t be possible for all four of the others to win 90+.
 

I quickly ran some numbers - since the Astros changed divisions in 2013, the most collective wins by a division is 436 by the 2018 AL West. Not sure how well this graphic will turn out:

Screen-Shot-2021-09-17-at-1-18-53-PM.png

In general, the best divisions at most seem to have four very good teams and one team that has a losing record. With the 2018 AL West, the Texas Rangers had 67 wins - which is a poor season by the standards of yesteryear, but I guess is a half-respectable record during these tanking-popular days. They underperformed in comparison to their Pythagorean W-L of 71-91, for what's that worth. Looking at their roster, they weren't rebuilding in the typical sense - kind of reminds me of the Orioles teams from 1999 - 2005.

The last time I can remember a division that didn't have a team with a losing record was the 2005 NL East, where the Nats finished at .500 and the rest of the teams had winning records.

I think it's maybe a point that doesn't get enough attention - but the AL East is pretty loaded right now and for the O's to avoid being that 5th team in the standings - they're going to have to add beyond the top prospects they have at the moment. The 2012-2016 Orioles had the fortune of rising to prominence during a relatively weak period for the AL East.

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25 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would bet on a slightly higher level Matt Harvey.  The O's will probably bring back Matt Harvey too.  I'm not really looking forward to another season of a dumpster fire rotation.  The O's rotation heading into spring training:

1.  Means (who half the board wants to trade)

2.  Akin

3.  Ellis

4.  Harvey (if the O's bring him back)  \

5.  Some random guy

Injury replacements:  random AAA guy who is not a real prospect

This rotation makes the 2020 opening day rotation look like a huge upgrade, especially if Means is traded.  Is Akin, Ellis, and Harvey even a good AAA rotation?

 

I think you're right. And they may feel that second half Matt Harvey IS a slightly higher level Matt Harvey. But I hope we bring in 2 more guys to supplement. 

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15 minutes ago, Philip said:

No it doesnt. Next season rotation will consist of our guys. Harvey won’t be back. Your prediction ignores literally every one of the guys we have in the high minors, including all the guys who have already debuted. Do you think the team is going to cut bait on Zimmerman, Kremer, Lowther, Wells, Wells, Baumann? Do you really think that none of those guys going to be an acceptable rotation piece?

With respect, that’s ridiculous. Some of those guys have certainly shown better than others, and injuries have taken a toll, but it is just not logical to assume that none of our prospects is going to be a productive piece. If that happens, they should just fire everybody.

Well, pretty much every prospect brought up to start this year has failed spectacularly.  I have to admit, Akin is showing promising signs he has turned a corner.  Expecting multiple rookies/prospects who have failed so far to join the starting rotation and be successful right away is a recipe for success.  It gets even worse if Means is traded and our rotation is headed by Akin.  That will strike fear in the hearts of the MLB hitters.  I admit, some of the O's pitching prospects will succeed as starters, most will fail.  That's just the history of pitching prospects and not just the O's.  I understand that regardless of what FA starters ar signed, the O's won't be a winning team next year.  It would be nice, and needed IMO, for the O's to make progress towards being a winning team and even a playoff team. 

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Does the Hold or Deal Means calculus change if playoffs expand to 6 or 8 teams?   Elias should get a view of that before offseason trades start unrolling.

The other two divisions; even in 2022 it isn't like the Rutschman/Rodriguez Orioles wouldn't have a puncher's chance against everyone but the White Sox if Correa and Verlander follow Springer out of Houston.

Next spring we'll get our view if our guys are Wieters/Tillman good, or Strasburg/Harper good and if the better one Means is an excellent supporting cast member.   The CBA restoring some schedule balance would be a godsend.

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2 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Does the Hold or Deal Means calculus change if playoffs expand to 6 or 8 teams?   Elias should get a view of that before offseason trades start unrolling.

The other two divisions; even in 2022 it isn't like the Rutschman/Rodriguez Orioles wouldn't have a puncher's chance against everyone but the White Sox if Correa and Verlander follow Springer out of Houston.

Next spring we'll get our view if our guys are Wieters/Tillman good, or Strasburg/Harper good and if the better one Means is an excellent supporting cast member.   The CBA restoring some schedule balance would be a godsend.

It doesn't IMO. To me, the only thing you look at is whether the offer is more than what you value Means at. 

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43 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

When you don't care about the quality of said innings...

Yeah I mean he and Lopez really ate the majority of innings and they were mostly poor quality innings. But they weren't SO poor that Hyde was forced to take them out after 1.2 IP. That, and they stayed healthy for most of the year. That's certainly valuable in this year in particular, just getting through games and protecting more valuable guys who haven't pitched much in a year, etc. 

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30 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah I mean he and Lopez really ate the majority of innings and they were mostly poor quality innings. But they weren't SO poor that Hyde was forced to take them out after 1.2 IP. That, and they stayed healthy for most of the year. That's certainly valuable in this year in particular, just getting through games and protecting more valuable guys who haven't pitched much in a year, etc. 

I was going to say that Harvey's 6.27 ERA was close to historically ridiculous for someone who pitched over 100 innings, but then I looked and, whatta you know, he's not even in the bottom 100 since WWII.

Even among Orioles he's only 7th.

Rk                 Player  ERA    IP Year Age  Tm Lg  G GS CG SHO GF  W  L W-L% SV   H   R  ER  BB  SO
1             Doug Drabek 7.29 108.2 1998  35 BAL AL 23 21  1   0  1  6 11 .353  0 138  90  88  29  55
2           Jason Johnson 7.02 107.2 2000  26 BAL AL 25 13  0   0  3  1 10 .091  0 119  95  84  61  79
3          Ubaldo Jimenez 6.81 142.2 2017  33 BAL AL 31 25  0   0  2  6 11 .353  0 169 109 108  58 139
4           Garrett Olson 6.65 132.2 2008  24 BAL AL 26 26  0   0  0  9 10 .474  0 168 100  98  62  83
5            Jason Berken 6.54 119.2 2009  25 BAL AL 24 24  0   0  0  6 12 .333  0 164  92  87  44  66
6               Ken Dixon 6.43 105.0 1987  26 BAL AL 34 15  0   0 13  7 10 .412  5 128  81  75  27  91
7             Matt Harvey 6.27 127.2 2021  32 BAL AL 28 28  0   0  0  6 14 .300  0 160  96  89  37  95
8           Sidney Ponson 6.21 130.1 2005  28 BAL AL 23 23  1   0  0  7 11 .389  0 177  97  90  48  68
9            Jake Arrieta 6.20 114.2 2012  26 BAL AL 24 18  0   0  1  3  9 .250  0 122  82  79  35 109
10            Jorge Lopez 6.07 121.2 2021  28 BAL AL 33 25  0   0  2  3 14 .176  0 142  83  82  56 112

 

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4 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Does the Hold or Deal Means calculus change if playoffs expand to 6 or 8 teams?   Elias should get a view of that before offseason trades start unrolling.

The other two divisions; even in 2022 it isn't like the Rutschman/Rodriguez Orioles wouldn't have a puncher's chance against everyone but the White Sox if Correa and Verlander follow Springer out of Houston.

Next spring we'll get our view if our guys are Wieters/Tillman good, or Strasburg/Harper good and if the better one Means is an excellent supporting cast member.   The CBA restoring some schedule balance would be a godsend.

If the playoff format expands to 12 teams, I think the O's could have a shot.

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10 hours ago, Ruzious said:

The packages definitely have to be real good.  I don't see any sign that ownership is committed to 2022 as anything but another developmental year.  

I dont think anyone has seen anything about ownerships intentions either way.  Ownership has been disturbingly quiet over the last two years.

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