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Rutschman: Let’s Make a Deal

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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What are the odds Elias is even with the O's in five more years?

If the rebuild doesn't work he's likely to get fired.

If it does work he's likely to get hired away by another team.

How often does a GM spend eight years with the same team I wonder?

What are the odds Creed Willems ever takes a single AB at the MLB level?  15%?  Less?

And this isn’t a shot at Creed, just the reality of professional baseball. 

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8 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

What are the odds Creed Willems ever takes a single AB at the MLB level?  15%?  Less?

And this isn’t a shot at Creed, just the reality of professional baseball. 

Mike Ohlman got 13 at bats.

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

When did they want to sign the deal- before 2018?  That would give the O's two more seasons on the deal.

I mean 24M for 4.3 wins plus two more seasons doesn't look like it would be a bad deal.  It isn't an argument against signing a guy.

Ok, let me know where Kingery currently is playing and how great that contract was.

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We have no idea what the new CBA will include,  and I strenuously oppose long term contracts, but this is a fun thought exercise.

AR will be 24 next April. He has approximately 8-10 years of peak performance, maybe 7 primarily at catcher before shifting to C/1B/DH.

6 years makes him a FA at 30 with his best years behind him and only a couple standout years ahead and teams will know it. Nobody is going to give him more than an additional 5-6 years at that point, unless he is magnificent, and that is unlikely.

So it is useless to offer him a contract that doesn’t make room for him to get a second contract. OR you have to give him a 10-yr contract which includes his first decline years. The only other option is to overpay for yrs 1-6 so you can get an extra couple years before he departs.

He already has 8 million in the bank. He wants security in the form of no-trade clauses and player options. 7/80 might work with a limited(10 teams, perhaps) no trade clause and a player option for the 8th year.

That way the team financial risk is a bit less but the team gets an extra-7 instead of 6- inexpensive year, ARs total security is guaranteed, he can turn down the final year if he’s blazing and accept it if he’s faltering, and still, at 31-or 32-get another reasonable 5 year contract(insofar as any of those ridiculous 100-million dollar contracts are reasonable.)

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10 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Ok, let me know where Kingery currently is playing and how great that contract was.

Oh, I thought you were speculating on if the O's had signed Hays to that deal. 

That's something I thought was actually interesting.

Yea, I'm sure the Kingery deal is behind the Phillies woes.  🙄

If I wanted to bring up a deal in which a guy that has never played MLB got a long term contract I'd go with Rusney Castillo.

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2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

So if Rutschman gets hurt he gets no guaranteed money after the initial $27M? There is no way he gives us control of three extra years for essentially no guaranteed money. 

$27 mm would be more than all but two catchers in the history of baseball got in their pre-FA years.   And those two weren’t guaranteed anything when they started their careers.   

Well, I tried.    To me it was a pretty fair proposal that had benefits for both sides.   But I’m not reading a lot of enthusiasm from anyone here and I don’t see anyone else suggesting an alternative other than going year by year for now.
 

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Man, that's a tough question.  On the one hand I love the idea of locking up our young talent so they can be cornerstones for a long while.  On the other hand if we miss we don't have the financial resources to absorb the hit as easily as some other franchises.  And catcher is such a volatile position and the whole MW situation has many O's fans a bit gun shy.  All that said I probably do it if he's willing to sign for reasonable terms.

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8 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

If Elias is banking on the 18 year old with the .500 OPS in rookie ball to eventually replace Rutschman, this franchise is truly screwed. 

So I guess its you vs Elias on Willems.   Elias spent 1M on the eighth rounder.  He has had 28 PA in rookie ball.  Hardly enough to say Elias is right or wrong.

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2020 NATIONAL SHOWCASE  
 
Creed Willems is a 2021 C/1B/3B with a 6-1 225 lb. frame from Aledo, TX who attends Aledo. Big and strong build, country strong look. Left handed hitter, hits from a slightly open stance, has loose and very strong hands, stays short and direct to the ball, pull side approach, glides into the ball well and uses his strong lower half to generate bat speed, doesn't hunt for power but has it, going to mash at the college level with his combination of short and strong. 7.20 runner, deceptively athletic for his size, has very good raw arm strength, good body life in his shifting and coming out of his crouch. Bat has a chance to really play. Good student, verbal commitment to Texas Christian.

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8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What are the odds Elias is even with the O's in five more years?

If the rebuild doesn't work he's likely to get fired.

If it does work he's likely to get hired away by another team.

How often does a GM spend eight years with the same team I wonder?

I would look at the Brewers David Stearns as a model.    Hired out of the Astros in 2015 as GM he has been promoted to President  of Baseball Operations and is still with the mid market Brewers.

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

So I guess its you vs Elias on Willems.   Elias spent 1M on the eighth rounder.  He has had 28 PA in rookie ball.  Hardly enough to say Elias is right or wrong

No it isn’t.  It’s absurd to suggest that Elias is planning on Willems being the future catcher.  As I said in a previous post, the odds of him even taking a single MLB AB are small, much less being the heir apparent to Adley. Plenty of guys have signed for 1M+ and fizzled out in AA.

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7 hours ago, forphase1 said:

Man, that's a tough question.  On the one hand I love the idea of locking up our young talent so they can be cornerstones for a long while.  On the other hand if we miss we don't have the financial resources to absorb the hit as easily as some other franchises. I probably do it if he's willing to sign for reasonable terms.

They’re far more likely to be hurt by the bad FA signing. Davis says hello. Resources are better risked on young controlled talent than on aging superstars. 

The Orioles aren’t the Yankees, Dodgers, or Red Sox, but they certainly could be closer to the what the Rays have done. 

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Obviously, the CBA could change this but Adley will want (and rightfully so) more money than any of those catchers.  Salaries are higher now, so he will naturally get more.  
 

I think you would need to be more in the 6/32-35 range to entice him.

Figure he makes 1-1.5M (total) in his first 3 seasons.  After that, he makes 3-5M in year 1, 8-12M in year 2 and 18-25 in year 3.  If he has MVP level years, that could be higher.  So that’s 42 on the high end and 29 on the low end.

However, I wouldn’t sign him to a long term deal unless I’m getting 1-2 FA years locked up, otherwise, what is the point?

To me, the best case scenario deal is 7 years in the area of 60 million with an 8th year team or vesting option for another 25ishM.  
 

That would be a tough deal for him to turn down but he certainly could still turn it down.

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3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Obviously, the CBA could change this but Adley will want (and rightfully so) more money than any of those catchers.  Salaries are higher now, so he will naturally get more.  
 

I think you would need to be more in the 6/32-35 range to entice him.

Figure he makes 1-1.5M (total) in his first 3 seasons.  After that, he makes 3-5M in year 1, 8-12M in year 2 and 18-25 in year 3.  If he has MVP level years, that could be higher.  So that’s 42 on the high end and 29 on the low end.

However, I wouldn’t sign him to a long term deal unless I’m getting 1-2 FA years locked up, otherwise, what is the point?

To me, the best case scenario deal is 7 years in the area of 60 million with an 8th year team or vesting option for another 25ishM.  
 

That would be a tough deal for him to turn down but he certainly could still turn it down.

The advantage would be in having the cost locked in.  Now you can saw that isn't enough of an advantage but it is something. 

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