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Frobby

How is it possible that Mullins won’t score 100 runs this year?

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I find it astounding that with six games to play, Cedric Mullins has only 89 runs scored.   Consider: 

- 30 homers, so he’s knocked himself in 30 times.   

- 36 doubles and 5 triples, where all that  was needed was a single or in some cases a sac fly to score him.  

- 168 singles + walks + HBP

- 30 stolen bases, so that’s a bunch more times that a single or sac fly could have scored him.  

- 20 of his doubles, 3 of his triples, and 68 of his singles/walks/HBP came when leading off the inning.   

Seems to me he should have scored 100 runs easily, but he probably won’t come close.   

I realize we don’t have the strongest lineup, but it doesn’t seem that feeble until you get to the bottom half of the order, which should be largely irrelevant to Mullins’ run scoring.   
 

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12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I find it astounding that with six games to play, Cedric Mullins has only 89 runs scored.   Consider: 

- 30 homers, so he’s knocked himself in 30 times.   

- 36 doubles and 5 triples, where all that  was needed was a single or in some cases a sac fly to score him.  

- 168 singles + walks + HBP

- 30 stolen bases, so that’s a bunch more times that a single or sac fly could have scored him.  

- 20 of his doubles, 3 of his triples, and 68 of his singles/walks/HBP came when leading off the inning.   

Seems to me he should have scored 100 runs easily, but he probably won’t come close.   

I realize we don’t have the strongest lineup, but it doesn’t seem that feeble until you get to the bottom half of the order, which should be largely irrelevant to Mullins’ run scoring.   
 

A lot of bad hitters behind him? This is a team that batted Franco 4th 17 times, 5th 18 times and 3rd twice.

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The OBP of the Orioles batting order following Mullins hasn't been very good this year. Even while Cedric has been getting on base the players batting behind him have been making a lot of outs.  

OBP

Batting 2nd: .283

Batting 3rd: .308

Batting 4th: .314

Batting 5th: .307 

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10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Also not many RBI for 40 hr.

Hitting leadoff gives him a pass on RBI. The lack of runs scored is a mystery. You'd think he'd muster more than Mitch Haniger who is also not in the greatest lineup and OBP is like 60 points lower. Baseball is a funny game. 

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2 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

The OBP of the Orioles batting order following Mullins hasn't been very good this year. Even while Cedric has been getting on base the players batting behind him have been making a lot of outs.  

OBP

Batting 2nd: .283

Batting 3rd: .308

Batting 4th: .314

Batting 5th: .307 

2nd has just been awful.  Who has batted 2nd the most.  I know recently Hays and Mountcastle have been there a lot.  Raising OBP is a desperate need for this team. 

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27 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I always thought scoring runs was the biggest overrated counting stat.  It relies a lot on who's behind you in the order and as we're seeing here...if it's not that great, you're not going to score runs.  

it can show you, guys with great running ability, note, I didnt say speed. Speed helps, but doesnt do squat for you, if you have no base running IQ

the guys that can score from first/second/third, by knowing who is in the outfield and getting good jump on the crack of the bat.

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20 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

it can show you, guys with great running ability, note, I didnt say speed. Speed helps, but doesnt do squat for you, if you have no base running IQ

the guys that can score from first/second/third, by knowing who is in the outfield and getting good jump on the crack of the bat.

Right, but you can't tell who can do that based off the number of runs they've scored.  

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It is strange. Cedric is only 19th in the AL in runs scored (but just 3 runs behind number 13). Even more surprising: Cedric leads the league with 99 hits with no outs, 10 more than Altuve, who's in second place. You would think lots of no-out hits would lead to lots of runs, but it obviously depends on the guys batting after you,

I wouldn't look so much at the OBP of hitters after Cedric since getting on base without a hit usually won't drive a runner in. I would guess that their BAs and SLGs are more important. The Orioles' 2 through 5 hitters have been really bad in both slugging and batting average: 

Batting second: .217 in BA (15th in the AL), .403 in slugging (9th in the AL)
Batting third: .253 (9th), .419 (11th)
Batting fourth: .242 (12th), .422 (13th)
Batting fifth: 12th (.228), .385 (13th)

The Orioles' second through fifth hitters rank 8th, 12th, 14th and 12th in the AL in RBIs. That seems to fit Cedric's surprisingly low runs-scored total: the guys following him haven't been very good at driving in Cedric, each other or anyone else. 

Cedric's low RBI total doesn't surprise me when you look at how bad the hitters before Cedric -- that is, the bottom of the batting order -- have been at getting on base and giving him RBI opportunities.

Batting seventh: .283 in OBP (13th in the AL)
Batting eighth: .244 in OBP (15th, last by 23 points)
Batting ninth: .283 in OBP (13th)

Something I didn't really expect when I looked at these numbers: they remind me that, other than Cedric, Mountcastle among rookies (though he shouldn't qualify, IMO), and maybe Hays, the Orioles' offense has been really bad compared to the rest of the league. Expecting a year of growth and the advent of Rutschman to lead to a large upgrade next year is delusional.

 

 

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2 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

The OBP of the Orioles batting order following Mullins hasn't been very good this year. Even while Cedric has been getting on base the players batting behind him have been making a lot of outs.  

OBP

Batting 2nd: .283

Batting 3rd: .308

Batting 4th: .314

Batting 5th: .307 

Well this to me explains it. Some seriously low OBP's on this team. 

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