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Severino or Mancini - More Trade Value?

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25 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

My heart wants Mancini back and to be part of a winning team in Baltimore when that happens again. That said, his lack of versatility is an issue for that. I think there's still a place on this team in 2022 for sure and then we can see what he looks like the second year back from cancer. I have to believe what he went through last year played a role in his second half decline. I expect him to have an OPS up around .800 next year. Is that great for a 1B/DH? Nope. But it's fine for next year. We can see if he can get closer to his 2019 numbers and become a legitimate trade chip (or--perhaps--prove himself to be a piece for a few more years and earn an extension). For now, I think he has more value to the Orioles than he has in whatever minimal return he can fetch. 

How long an extension do you think they'll need?

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9 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I'm not wildcard, but yeah, I would be.  I can't imagine he has very much trade value.  

But why would you be upset about him walking away for nothing after 2022 but good with it after 2023?

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At this point we should deal Severino. I think he has value. Mancini is valuable to the club and could really rack up some stats pre deadline with the lineup with have around him. 
 

Post June 1

1.  Mullins CF S 

2. Hays LF R

3. AR C S

4. Mountcastle R

5. Mancini DH R

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Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

At this point we should deal Severino. I think he has value. Mancini is valuable to the club and could really rack up some stats pre deadline with the lineup with have around him. 
 

Post June 1

1.  Mullins CF S 

2. Hays LF R

3. AR C S

4. Mountcastle R

5. Mancini DH R

What would you give up for the right to offer Severino arbitration?

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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

At this point we should deal Severino. I think he has value. Mancini is valuable to the club and could really rack up some stats pre deadline with the lineup with have around him. 
 

Post June 1

1.  Mullins CF S 

2. Hays LF R

3. AR C S

4. Mountcastle R

5. Mancini DH R

I posted recently about all the guys who are already free agents. Guys cut loose by big league teams, guys who have declared free agency by virtue of service time, minor league free agents, I think they are all terrible but I haven’t looked really close. In a couple weeks they’re going to be a lot of free agents who are not really terrible, they will be players of all kinds let go because they are a surplus or because  the roster spot is needed.

We have first place on the waiver wire. We are going to be collecting guys right and left. It is almost impossible not to find a better, younger, and/or cheaper catcher than Severino/Wynns.

And the other teams know this too. Severino is not going to survive the winter. Any team that wants him can just wait for the axe to fall. 

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19 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

But you are ok with him walking after 2023 for nothing?

I don't think Elias lets that happen.   They either trade Mancini this off season or sign him for 2 years.   When his value getting higher and when Stowers is ready for the majors they trade Mancini.   No use to trade him when his value is down.  

Almost any players of value is going to get traded by the O's at some point according to the Tampa model.   The O's get 4 or 5 years of performance from them and  then trade them to replenish the major league roster or the minors.    Tampa is even more active then that.  They trade players sooner but I think the O's can wait a little longer to trade them.  But I don't think we see players of value  walk for nothing under Elias.

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11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Elias lets that happen.   They either trade Mancini this off season or sign him for 2 years.   When his value getting higher and when Stowers is ready for the majors they trade Mancini.   No use to trade him when his value is down.  

Almost any players of value is going to get traded by the O's at some point according to the Tampa model.   The O's get 4 or 5 years of performance from them and  then trade them to replenish the major league roster or the minors.    Tampa is even more active then that.  They trade players sooner but I think the O's can wait a little longer to trade them.  But I don't think we see players of value  walk for nothing under Elias.

Yea, the big trend is first basemen/dh types becoming more valuable after they turn 30.

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6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea, the big trend is first basemen/dh types becoming more valuable after they turn 30.

I think the line of thinking is that Mancini did not get to workout last off season. Hyde just talked about that in an interview.   The O's mgt think with a normal off season of workouts Mancini will be able to be stronger throughout the 2022 season instead of fading in the last two months.  With better performance I believe they think his trade value will increase.

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34 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Elias lets that happen.   They either trade Mancini this off season or sign him for 2 years.   When his value getting higher and when Stowers is ready for the majors they trade Mancini.   No use to trade him when his value is down.  

Almost any players of value is going to get traded by the O's at some point according to the Tampa model.   The O's get 4 or 5 years of performance from them and  then trade them to replenish the major league roster or the minors.    Tampa is even more active then that.  They trade players sooner but I think the O's can wait a little longer to trade them.  But I don't think we see players of value  walk for nothing under Elias.

 But this doesn’t answer my question.  Mancini with either walks after 2022 for nothing or after 2023 for nothing (in your scenario).

Why does the one extra year matter?

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20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think the line of thinking is that Mancini did not get to workout last off season. Hyde just talked about that in an interview.   The O's mgt think with a normal off season of workouts Mancini will be able to be stronger throughout the 2022 season instead of fading in the last two months.  With better performance I believe they think his trade value will increase.

Makes one wonder why Hyde didn't give him more rest days in the first half.

 

Age still happens, his value is unlikely to increase by a significant amount.

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