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Severino or Mancini - More Trade Value?

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18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 But this doesn’t answer my question.  Mancini with either walks after 2022 for nothing or after 2023 for nothing (in your scenario).

Why does the one extra year matter?

Signing Mancni to a two year contract  gives Mancini  time to perform better and for the O's to trade him with a better return because of the performance increase.

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CJ Cron just got 2/14.5 off a very good year for a player of the Mancini/Aguilar/Cron type.

In the category of numbers haha funny, 7.25 was also the Rockies new GM's winning offer for Senzatela's last 2 arb years.   Must be his lucky number or something.

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20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Signing Mancni to a two year contract  gives Mancini  time to perform better and for the O's to trade him with a better return because of the performance increase.

Ok but this could happen next year too.

And he may not get better or the Os could be in contention and he doesn’t get dealt and still walks.  Are you just going to suggest we keep extending him to not lose him for nothing?

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok but this could happen next year too.

And he may not get better or the Os could be in contention and he doesn’t get dealt and still walks.  Are you just going to suggest we keep extending him to not lose him for nothing?

Depends on the facts at the time.

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I would just go to arbitration with Mancini and go from there, but I don't have a 2-year extension either. I don't believe he's blocking anyone. Mountcastle and Mancini have 1B/DH. Our other position-limited players (Davis, Stewart) are either gone or likely to be gone or non-factors. Adley has gotten some ABs at 1B in the minors and we may see the Orioles do that (or DH) in the big leagues to keep his bat in the lineup and in those cases, Mancini could get an extra day off here and there. I don't see an issue with that. 

My preference would be just arbitration and one year though since Nuestrom and Stowers may work their way up. Perhaps they unseat Santander, but if both are good, then the extra spot in the lineup at DH becomes attractive to rotate the outfielders. To me, that's more of a late 2022 or 2023 issue. 

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3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think the line of thinking is that Mancini did not get to workout last off season. Hyde just talked about that in an interview.   The O's mgt think with a normal off season of workouts Mancini will be able to be stronger throughout the 2022 season instead of fading in the last two months.  With better performance I believe they think his trade value will increase.

Positive trend: He's working out and getting stronger and building endurance.

Negative trends: He's getting older and the time remaining on his team control is growing shorter by the day.

I think the best case scenario is that he has a .900 OPS in early 2022 and they flip him for a decent prospect in June or July.  But more likely he has an .800ish OPS, on a 1.5-2 WAR pace and returns some org's #7 or #10 prospect.

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I think Mancini might struggle to get a 2 year/$15 mill contract in free agency.  There doesn't seem to be any excess value relative to his pay.  I could see keeping Mancini until the 2022 trade deadline, but Adley is going to need some DH at bats.  It makes no sense for a financially limited franchise like the O's to spend $8 mill for a part time DH. 

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13 hours ago, SteveA said:

Guess this debate has been settled.

Winner winner. I don’t think we non tender Mancini, because of various reasons. I also don’t think we trade Mancini before next trade deadline either. There won’t be a pressing need for the DH spot until both AR and Stowers are up here. 

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3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Winner winner. I don’t think we non tender Mancini, because of various reasons. I also don’t think we trade Mancini before next trade deadline either. There won’t be a pressing need for the DH spot until both AR and Stowers are up here. 

Agreed. 

I think you keep Mancini and hope year 2 removed from cancer is better. If he puts up numbers similar to 2019 in the first half of 2022 then he has some trade value, particularly if a team loses a 1B. That said, I don't anticipate a .900 OPS season, but I do expect 2022 to be better than 2021. His second half regression makes a TON of sense given he sent 2020 in chemo. He should be stronger going into 2022 and should be able to sustain a bit better. I think we can see a .800 OPS season. Given his defensive limitations that's not great, but it could be useful for a team in contention...and he doesn't start blocking anyone in Baltimore until August (and that's assuming everyone else is healthy by then). 

The team should keep him for 2022. Tender him a contract. They can trade him at the deadline if a deal materializes or let him walk after the season. 

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