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Kevin Goldstein 10/4 chat on O’s topics

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22 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

70 wins would be an 18 win improvement. We’ll be better next year but that is an awfully big jump especially if we’re only adding AR and GR on June 1. Likely subtracting on July 31. Our big FA signing is likely to be Galvis. It would be a big improvement to win 62. I’m excited about 2023, but I don’t think we see W/L change till then. 2022 will be much of the same as this year. 

If it is, Adley, Grayson et al will be big disappointments.

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2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

70 wins would be an 18 win improvement. We’ll be better next year but that is an awfully big jump especially if we’re only adding AR and GR on June 1. Likely subtracting on July 31. Our big FA signing is likely to be Galvis. It would be a big improvement to win 62. I’m excited about 2023, but I don’t think we see W/L change till then. 2022 will be much of the same as this year. 

There’s not really any point in discussing it until we see who’s on the roster.   I think Adley will be up much sooner than June 1.    Grayson probably won’t be, but let’s see what happens with the CBA, what happens in spring training, etc.   I do think the team is likely to be significantly better next year, but how much better depends on roster moves not yet made.    

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So how hard is it to improve by at least 18 games, which is what it would take to get us to the 70 win level?

The conventional wisdom is that such one season improvements are pretty rare, but I wondered how rare.   Here are all the 18+ game improvements in this century.   We can't do this for the last two years of course because 2020 records don't indicate much:

2001  Hou+21, Sea+25
2002
2003  KC+21, ChC+21
2004  Det+29, Tex+18, SL+20, SD+23
2005  Ariz+26
2006  Det+24
2007  Cle+18, ChC+18
2008  TB+31
2009  Sea+24, Colo+18
2010
2011  Milw+19, Ariz+29
2012  Balt+24, Oak+20, Wash+18, Cinc+18
2013  Bos+28, Cle+24
2014  Hou+19, LAA+20
2015  Tex+19, ChC+24
2016
2017  Minn+26, Ariz+24
2018  Oak+22, Atl+18
2019  Minn+23

So nearly every year, there is at least one team that improves by 18 or more.  Over a 19 year period there were 32 such improvements, and in more than half the years (12/19) there were at least two.

So chances are pretty good that at least one major league team, and very possibly two, will make at least an 18 game improvement next year.   And of course it is more likely that those team(s) will come from the lower half of the league this year, given that it's much harder to improve that much on a team that's already good.

Worth noting that only one team in the 21st century, the 2008 Rays, improved by 31 or more games which is what it would take to get us a winning record next year.

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13 hours ago, JimGinSP said:

Adam may want to manage but in the few years he has been away from MLB he has probably lost the real connections to key decision makers that might support him in his quest. The Orioles have completely turned over in regards to FO personnel and philosophy.  He was only in AZ for a minute.  Too much heat in his hometown of SD where they thought they were ready to win now.  
He is not without a role here in Birdland however.  Look at the big picture Adam.  Job security and renewed status in a community that will love to have him back.  A beloved institution just turned 76 a few days ago and while John Sterling forges on in NY doing PBP at 83,  I think a third of a season of 76 year old Jim Palmer, a third of a season of Adam Jones and a third of a season of Ben McDonald doing color analysis on TV would be fantastic.  They might even consider moving Ben back into radio color as he was very good in that role with Joe Angel.

Come on Adam ….. play the long game here, managers are just hired to get fired!

 

In the case of the O's, broadcasters lose their jobs too.

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6 hours ago, Frobby said:

There’s not really any point in discussing it until we see who’s on the roster.   I think Adley will be up much sooner than June 1.    Grayson probably won’t be, but let’s see what happens with the CBA, what happens in spring training, etc.   I do think the team is likely to be significantly better next year, but how much better depends on roster moves not yet made.    

Unless the CBA changes there is zero incentive to call up AR before June 1. It’s not like another 60 days of “bad” PR is going to hurt this franchise any more. 

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33 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Unless the CBA changes there is zero incentive to call up AR before June 1. It’s not like another 60 days of “bad” PR is going to hurt this franchise any more. 

Why are you picking June 1?   Under current rules, they could call him up any time after April 14 and he wouldn’t be a free agent until after the 2028 season.  If you are suggesting they’ll defer him to try to avoid him becoming a Super 2 after the 2024 season, (1) I disagree they’ll do that and (2) the cutoff date for Super 2 changes every year, isn’t known in advance,and could be 2-3 weeks before June 1 or 1-2 weeks later.  In 2017, Josh Hader debuted on June 10 and he still qualified as a Super 2 after the 2019 season.  

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10/25 Chat:

Quote
Reginald: Is there any worry about the level of competition Colton Cowser faced or is he legit?
 
12:07
Kevin Goldstein: Legit.
Quote
Guest: Do you think the Orioles should trade Mullins with the # of OF prospects they have in minors.
 
12:41
Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely not.
Quote
Bmore Fan: What moves could you see the Orioles make this offseason that move the needle closer to contending?
 
12:46
Kevin Goldstein: Getting Rutschman and Rodriguez in the big leagues would be a nice start….

Nothing really exciting.

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/category/chin-music/

Goldstein and Longenhagen go on the Orioles for about 10 minutes starting around the 1:42 mark of Episode 36.

KG says still in touch some with Mike/Sig, feels they haven't really messed anything up, and Slow and Steady with emphasis on slow his overall take.

They did have a detail Rutschman's 6.5% SwStr rate was Top 25 Lowest/Best in all the minors.

It seemed like they may have split a little on the Bundy trade guys.   I think Longenhagen drew unfavorable contrast to Padres getting blue chip Francisco Mejia when they sold Brad Hand, giving the Orioles haul the classic "pupu" platter label.  Goldstein was a little more generous, seeing it in the context of choosing players that work with your Player Development philosophies.

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