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Frobby

A final look at Mountcastle and the other AL ROY candidates

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6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's one of the older rookies and he's a RH 1b/dh.  It isn't surprising.

 

 

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's one of the older rookies and he's a RH 1b/dh.  It isn't surprising.

 

And his OBP is unlikely to be consistently good (or even decent).

 

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12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

And his OBP is unlikely to be consistently good (or even decent).

 

If he maintains his walk rate from this year his OBP will be fine unless you don't think he'll hit for average.  Personally I think he's going to consistently hit in the .280-.300 range and would expect his OBP to correspondingly be in the .330-.360 range. 

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5 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

If he maintains his walk rate from this year his OBP will be fine unless you don't think he'll hit for average.  Personally I think he's going to consistently hit in the .280-.300 range and would expect his OBP to correspondingly be in the .330-.360 range. 

I would be surprised if he can keep it in that range on a consistent basis.  I’m expecting sub 325 most years.  He certainly could have a few seasons in the range you mentioned but I don’t see that being a consistent thing.

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6 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

If he maintains his walk rate from this year his OBP will be fine unless you don't think he'll hit for average.  Personally I think he's going to consistently hit in the .280-.300 range and would expect his OBP to correspondingly be in the .330-.360 range. 

It isn't that easy to hit in the 280-300 range anymore.

I just checked we had 30 guys in MLB hit 280 or higher this season, out of 132 qualifiers.  You knock it back to 270 and you see over 50 guys, which seems more likely to me.  As for 300 hitters?  We had 14.

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Mou

50 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

Mountcastle's WAR feels off to me. I know he was dreadful in the OF and that pulled it down, but I'm not sure I saw him as a bad defender at 1B. I don't think he was a particularly good one, but from what I saw, he looked okay (admittedly, the dismal season caused me to tune out more than normal). 

Is anyone a stats whiz and know how we could calculate his WAR had those OF games been DH games instead? What change does that make? 

Overall, I like Mountcastle. He had a good season. He needs to be locked in at 1B and not touch an OF glove again. And he needs to work on cutting down the swing and miss (as I fear improving the walk rate is likely a bit of a taller ask). I could see him improving some and being a .850 OPS guy. And I really hope that's what he becomes. 

As for the ROY award, he'd have a much better chance with the HRs if this was the 90s. Given the age we are in and the importance of other factors, I think he's likely to finish around 5th in the voting. I could see him sneaking in at 3, but he's right along with Garcia for me, behind both pitchers and both Rays' players. 

Mountcastle was 32 of 36 first basemen in OAA with minus 4. Thats bad. But Dalbec was worst at minus 7.

yikes. Anyway, let’s hope MCs D gets better.

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2 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Does power lead to increased OBP any more?  I feel like the days of guys who could hit 40 in a season getting 10 to 20 points of OBP out of avoidance are gone.

It did for Ohtani.  😉

I'm sure guys pitch more carefully to Mountcastle than they would the bottom of the order but almost everyone is a threat these days.

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1 hour ago, Philip said:

 I wonder what Mountcastle’s WAR Would have been without any of that left field foolishness.

His defense in LF cost him about 0.5 rWAR.  Maybe slightly less than that.  

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1 hour ago, jamalshw said:

Mountcastle's WAR feels off to me. I know he was dreadful in the OF and that pulled it down, but I'm not sure I saw him as a bad defender at 1B. I don't think he was a particularly good one, but from what I saw, he looked okay (admittedly, the dismal season caused me to tune out more than normal). 

Is anyone a stats whiz and know how we could calculate his WAR had those OF games been DH games instead? What change does that make? 

Overall, I like Mountcastle. He had a good season. He needs to be locked in at 1B and not touch an OF glove again. And he needs to work on cutting down the swing and miss (as I fear improving the walk rate is likely a bit of a taller ask). I could see him improving some and being a .850 OPS guy. And I really hope that's what he becomes. 

As for the ROY award, he'd have a much better chance with the HRs if this was the 90s. Given the age we are in and the importance of other factors, I think he's likely to finish around 5th in the voting. I could see him sneaking in at 3, but he's right along with Garcia for me, behind both pitchers and both Rays' players. 

Imagine he'd been an average first baseman the whole year.  He had a 112 OPS+.  The median OPS+ for players who played at least 81 games at 1B or DH was 128.  He was a below-average hitting player for his position, and he spent half the year playing a poor LF.

[code]                                                                                                                                            
Rk                  Player OPS+ Year Age  Tm Lg   G  PA  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB  SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS     Pos
1    Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  169 2021  22 TOR AL 161 698 604 123 188 29  1 48 111 86   7 110   6  0  2  20  4  1 .311 .401 .601 1.002   *3D/5
2             Brandon Belt  160 2021  33 SFG NL  97 381 325  65  89 14  2 29  59 48   3 103   7  0  1   9  3  2 .274 .378 .597  .975     *3H
3            Shohei Ohtani  158 2021  26 LAA AL 155 639 537 103 138 26  8 46 100 96  20 189   4  0  2   7 26 10 .257 .373 .592  .965 *D1/H97
4               Matt Olson  153 2021  27 OAK AL 156 673 565 101 153 35  0 39 111 88  12 113   9  0 11  17  4  1 .271 .372 .540  .911    *3/D
5         Paul Goldschmidt  143 2021  33 STL NL 158 679 603 102 177 36  2 31  99 67   2 136   4  0  5  13 12  0 .294 .365 .514  .879   *3/DH
6                Max Muncy  138 2021  30 LAD NL 144 592 497  95 124 26  2 36  94 83   5 120  11  0  1   7  2  1 .250 .368 .527  .895 *34/5HD
7           Yordan Alvarez  136 2021  24 HOU AL 144 598 537  92 149 35  1 33 104 50   3 145   8  0  3  16  1  0 .278 .346 .531  .877   *D7/H
8               Joey Votto  136 2021  37 CIN NL 129 533 448  73 119 23  1 36  99 77   6 127   4  0  4   7  1  0 .266 .375 .563  .938   *3/HD
9        Giancarlo Stanton  136 2021  31 NYY AL 139 579 510  64 139 19  0 35  97 63   1 157   3  0  3  22  0  0 .273 .354 .516  .870  *D97/H
10             Pete Alonso  134 2021  26 NYM NL 152 637 561  81 147 27  3 37  94 60   6 127  12  0  4  20  3  0 .262 .344 .519  .863   *3/DH
11         Freddie Freeman  133 2021  31 ATL NL 159 695 600 120 180 25  2 31  83 85  15 107   8  0  2  11  8  3 .300 .393 .503  .896      *3
12            Yuli Gurriel  131 2021  37 HOU AL 143 605 530  83 169 31  0 15  81 59   2  68   4  0 12  16  1  1 .319 .384 .462  .846   *3/D5
13             Nelson Cruz  130 2021  40 TOT AL 140 584 513  79 136 21  1 32  86 51  10 126   7  0  9  14  3  0 .265 .335 .497  .832   *D/H3
14               C.J. Cron  130 2021  31 COL NL 142 547 470  70 132 31  1 28  92 60   3 117  13  0  4  11  1  0 .281 .375 .530  .905   *3H/D
15            Rhys Hoskins  129 2021  28 PHI NL 107 443 389  64  96 29  0 27  71 47   0 108   5  0  2   7  3  2 .247 .334 .530  .864   *3/HD
16               Ty France  128 2021  26 SEA AL 152 650 571  85 166 32  1 18  73 46   1 106  27  0  6  13  0  0 .291 .368 .445  .813 *3D4/5H
17             Jared Walsh  128 2021  27 LAA AL 144 585 530  70 147 34  1 29  98 48   6 152   4  0  3   7  2  1 .277 .340 .509  .850   *39/H
18           Franmil Reyes  127 2021  25 CLE AL 115 466 418  57 106 18  2 30  85 43   3 149   2  0  3  13  4  1 .254 .324 .522  .846   *D9/H
19           J.D. Martinez  126 2021  33 BOS AL 148 634 570  92 163 42  3 28  99 55   6 150   3  0  5  18  0  0 .286 .349 .518  .867   *D7/9
20              Jose Abreu  125 2021  34 CHW AL 152 659 566  86 148 30  2 30 117 61   3 143  22  0 10  28  1  0 .262 .351 .481  .831   *3D/5
21               Josh Bell  124 2021  28 WSN NL 144 568 498  75 130 24  1 27  88 65   2 101   2  0  3  22  0  0 .261 .347 .476  .823 *3H/7D9
22             Miguel Sano  113 2021  28 MIN AL 135 532 470  68 105 24  0 30  75 59   2 183   2  0  1  13  2  1 .223 .312 .466  .778  *3D/5H
23          Nathaniel Lowe  113 2021  25 TEX AL 157 642 557  75 147 24  3 18  72 80   2 162   2  0  3  13  8  0 .264 .357 .415  .771  *3/DH5
24           Jesus Aguilar  112 2021  31 MIA NL 131 510 449  49 117 23  0 22  93 46   4  93   3  0  7  11  0  0 .261 .329 .459  .788  *3H/D5
25        Ryan Mountcastle  112 2021  24 BAL AL 144 586 534  77 136 23  1 33  89 41   2 161   4  0  7  12  4  3 .255 .309 .487  .796   3D7/H
26              Yandy Diaz  112 2021  29 TBR AL 134 541 465  62 119 20  1 13  64 69   4  85   3  0  4  11  1  1 .256 .353 .387  .740  35/HD4
27           Anthony Rizzo  111 2021  31 TOT ML 141 576 496  73 123 23  3 22  61 52   2  87  23  0  5  15  6  2 .248 .344 .440  .783  *3/H41
28         Jonathan Schoop  110 2021  29 DET AL 156 674 623  85 173 30  1 22  84 37   0 133   6  0  8  15  2  0 .278 .321 .435  .756  *34D/5
29            Bobby Dalbec  105 2021  26 BOS AL 133 453 417  50 100 21  5 25  78 28   1 156   7  0  1   3  2  0 .240 .298 .494  .792 *35H/6D
30             Eric Hosmer  104 2021  31 SDP NL 151 565 509  53 137 28  0 12  65 48   2  99   5  1  2  13  5  4 .269 .337 .395  .732   *3H/D
31             Colin Moran   97 2021  28 PIT NL  99 359 318  29  82 12  0 10  50 36   0  87   2  0  3   6  1  0 .258 .334 .390  .724  *3H/D5
32          Miguel Cabrera   96 2021  38 DET AL 130 526 472  48 121 16  0 15  75 40   0 118   5  0  9  21  0  0 .256 .316 .386  .701    D3/H
33        Christian Walker   88 2021  30 ARI NL 115 445 401  55  98 23  1 10  46 38   1 106   4  0  2   8  0  0 .244 .315 .382  .696   *3H/D
34          Carlos Santana   79 2021  35 KCR AL 158 659 565  66 121 15  0 19  69 86   3 102   3  0  5  12  2  0 .214 .319 .342  .660   *3D/H
[/code]

If he'd played the whole year at 1B or DH it wouldn't have changed much.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

His defense in LF cost him about 0.5 rWAR.  Maybe slightly less than that.  

OK, that reinforces my idea that he is a reasonable average player and nothing more at this time, although he’s young and strong, eager to learn… We’ll see what happens.

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3 hours ago, jamalshw said:

Mountcastle's WAR feels off to me. I know he was dreadful in the OF and that pulled it down, but I'm not sure I saw him as a bad defender at 1B. I don't think he was a particularly good one, but from what I saw, he looked okay (admittedly, the dismal season caused me to tune out more than normal). 

Is anyone a stats whiz and know how we could calculate his WAR had those OF games been DH games instead? What change does that make? 

First off, the fielding stat that feeds rWAR, called Rdrs (also Rfield), only had Mountcastle at -1 at 1B, so his defense there cost him very little.   About .1 rWAR.

There are positional adjustments made at every position that must be taken into account.   Per 162 games, the adjustments are (approximately):

DH: -15

1B: -9

LF: -6

So, given three players with equal offensive numbers who all played 162 games, the following players would have equal overall value:

- A DH

- A 1B who was at -6 Rdrs

- A LF who was at -9 Rdrs

Mountcastle played 21 games in LF, 18 as a starter, and had a -5 Rdrs in that limited time    Figure that was roughly 12% of a full season, so his positional adjustment there was -6 * .12 = about -0.7.    So, in those games his defensive value (including the positional adjustment) was about -5.7.    

If he’d played those same games at DH, his positional value would have been -15 * .12 = -1.8.

So, by playing a terrible LF instead of being at DH, Mountcastle lost about 3.9 runs.   1 run is approximately .1 WAR, so Mountcastle would have had a WAR 0.4 higher if he’d played DH in those games and had the same offensive stats.   Not insignificant, but not a huge deal, either. 

The biggest drag for Mountcastle is that he plays positions that good hitters play, so the positional adjustments hurt him.   Overall, he took a -9 positional adjustment, costing him almost 1 WAR.

 

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Wander Franco would have been worth 6.86 rWar with same number of plate appearances of Randy Rice-a-Rena?

Damn, that's a helluva season.

 (Just in case there are any Sox or Yanks fans reading, Arroz is rice in Spanish.)

Jose Mesa - Joe Table

Pedro Feliz - Pete Happy

Jorge Posada - George Past

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24 minutes ago, Ridgway22 said:

Wander Franco would have been worth 6.86 rWar with same number of plate appearances of Randy Rice-a-Rena?

Damn, that's a helluva season.

 (Just in case there are any Sox or Yanks fans reading, Arroz is rice in Spanish.)

Jose Mesa - Joe Table

Pedro Feliz - Pete Happy

Jorge Posada - George Past

Jimmy Paredes = Jimmy Walls

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