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Frobby

My second half and final report card - 2021

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3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

It will be nice in a couple of years when the O's will likely have competent major league outfielders with no place to play them.  Hopefully, Elias will solve that w/ a trade.  I think that Stowers and/or Neustrom will likely hit as well as Stewart, but can actually field the position competently.  I will be disappointed if Stewart has a spot on the 2022 Orioles.

From the minor league clips I've seen, Stowers is a much better outfielder than DJ for sure.

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14 minutes ago, LA2 said:

Thank you for all the effort. I myself would have given a lower grade to Zimmerman and a higher one to Akin's second half. Was Lowther too lowsy 😉 to include?

He didn’t make my 40-Inning threshold.  I probably would have graded him D-, same as Wells.  

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5 hours ago, Just Regular said:

McKenna probably fits better on someone else's roster, as Hays/Mullins/Santander (or Stowers/Neustrom's young legs if they filter in) don't cry out for defensive replacements.  

I’m not so sure I agree with this. Santander looked way off from his defensive performance of just a year ago. Granted, he was injured for most of it, but he needs to get back to that level.

I’d like to see him at DH more and I no longer think he’s a long term piece.

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23 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

I’m not so sure I agree with this. Santander looked way off from his defensive performance of just a year ago. Granted, he was injured for most of it, but he needs to get back to that level.

I’d like to see him at DH more and I no longer think he’s a long term piece.

Santander's OAA percentile went from 67 in his Gold Glove finalist 2020 to 5 this year.    The ankle sprain early powering back into 1B on that pickoff attempt was pretty bad, and I think on a roster as thin as ours he was enough of "The Man" he was anxious to get back himself.

I'd say I'm more worried about his overall ability to stay in the lineup than in his ability to handle RF reasonably.   I guess as Hays has put three qualifying months together, that belt goes to Santander next spring.   I still am curious to see that bat ~550 times, and agree if more DH is a means to that end, so be it.   

 

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Just now, Just Regular said:

Santander's OAA percentile went from 67 in his Gold Glove finalist 2020 to 5 this year.    The ankle sprain early powering back into 1B on that pickoff attempt was pretty bad, and I think on a roster as thin as ours he was enough of "The Man" he was anxious to get back himself.

I'd say I'm more worried about his overall ability to stay in the lineup than in his ability to handle RF reasonably.   I guess as Hays has put three qualifying months together, that belt goes to Santander next spring.   I still am curious to see that bat ~550 times, and agree if more DH is a means to that end, so be it.   

 

Why would Hyde and Elias let him?

Whats the gain for the team for him to risk exacerbating an injury for this team?

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On 10/9/2021 at 11:10 AM, Frobby said:

At the 81-game mark, I posted a thread giving my first half report card on the Orioles’ players.   The first half stats and grades are repeated here for reference, and I’ve given the second half stats and a grade, plus a final grade.

I’ll do the position players first.   As before, all grades are on a curve based on what I expected from the player going into the season.   I cut it off at 100 PA, sparing guys like Domingo Leyba and Jahmai Jones from being graded.  I left Wilkerson and Sisco on though, since I already graded them in the first half, when they were DFA.

Trey Mancini  1st half: .254/.330/.451, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 0.7 rWAR: B+;  2nd half: .257/.322/.410, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 0.1 rWAR: C+.   Overall grade: B.   Trey’s power numbers lagged in the second half, and he wasn’t as good in RISP situations as he was earlier in the year.   Still, overall, he had a solid season, made it all the way through the year healthy, and played a leadership role on the team.   It would have been hard to expect anything more than what we got.  

Ryan Mountcastle  1st half:  .263/.302/.468, 14 HR, 47 RBI, -0.1 rWAR: B-; 2nd half: .246/.316/.508, 19 HR, 42 RBI, 1.1 rWAR: B.     Mountcastle settled in nicely at 1B, and hit a little less for average but more for power in the second half.   He was a fairly streaky player all year, but the overall numbers were solid.   I would have hoped for a BA about 20 points higher than what we got, but it was good to see him take some walks and hit the long ball.   He set himself up well for 2022.

Pat Valaika 1st half: .192/.255/.256, 1 HR, 12 RBI, -0.9 rWAR: D-; 2nd half: .209/.245/.321, 4 HR, 13 RBI, -1.0 rWAR: F.   Like a bad penny, Valaika keeps showing up.   We sent him to the minors a couple of times but he kept finding his way back to Baltimore.   I hope we have better options next year.

Rio Ruiz 1st half: .167/.250/.300, 3 HR, 6 RBI, -0.2 rWAR: F; 2nd half – DFA.   Overall grade: F.   (My first half comment:) The fact that he did so poorly that he was DFA even though there weren’t any replacement options better than Valaika and Wilkerson tells you all you need to know.

Stevie Wilkerson 1st half: .167/.211/.208, 0 HR, 2 RBI, -0.5 rWAR: F.   2nd half – DFA.  Overall grade: F.  (My first half comment:) Even by Wilkerson’s standards, he was a bust and a deserving DFA.

Maikel Franco 1st half: .221/.265/.376, 9 HR, 42 RBI, -0.8 rWAR: D-; 2nd half: .172/.213/.287, 2 HR, 5 RBI, -0.7 rWAR: F.   Overall grade: F.  As bad as he was in the first half, he was worse in the second half, and deservedly got the axe in late August.

 Freddy Galvis, .249/.306/.414, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 1.1 rWAR: B; 2nd half: traded.   Overall grade: B.   (My first half comment:) He’s been pretty much what I expected, maybe a little better with the bat and slightly worse with his range.   But overall, a steady player and a bargain at what we paid him.  Note: he was injured throughout July and we traded him at the deadline, so he never played for us in the second half.

Ramon Urias 1st half: .250/.341/.431, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 0.6 rWAR: B; 2nd half: .289/.369/.405, 4 HR, 26 RBI, 1.4 rWAR: A-.   Overall grade: A-.   Really a solid season for Urias offensively and we hardly could have asked for more.   He’s not the rangiest guy when he plays SS, and not always the most instinctive defender, but he was solid enough.   I’m really looking forward to seeing more of him in 2022.

Pedro Severino 1st half: .231/.309/.319, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 0.4 rWAR: D; 2nd half: .264/.307/.442, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 0.5 rWAR: C+.  Overall grade: C-.  Severino had a very solid second half offensively, and he also did a better job avoiding passed balls and throwing out runners in the second half.   He’s still below average defensively but I kind of feel people soured on him so much in the first two months that they failed to notice that he improved as the year progressed.

 Chance Sisco 1st half: .154/.247/.182, 0 HR, 3 RBI, -0.3 rWAR: F; 2nd half – DFA.  Overall grade: F.   (My first half comment:) Well, here’s a catcher I can give an F.   His bat, not terrible the last couple of seasons, just completely disappeared.  The guy made almost no hard contract whatsoever.   He actually did surprisingly well at throwing out runners, but otherwise was very poor defensively and was deservedly DFA.

Austin Hays, 1st half: .249/.307/.434, 8 HR, 26 RBI, 1.2 rWAR: B-; 2nd half: .261/.308/.478, 14 HR, 45 RBI, 2.0 rWAR: B+.  Overall grade: B.   Hays stayed healthy enough to stay on the field the entire second half, and really kicked into high gear the last 40 games or so.   I think he’s capable of hitting for higher average and hope to see him do that next year without sacrificing power.   Definitely one of the bright spots of 2021.

Cedric Mullins 1st half: .322/.391/.550, 14 HR, 30 RBI, 15 SB, 4.0 rWAR: A+; 2nd half: .258/.326/.485, 16 HR, 29 RBI, 15 SB 1.7 rWAR: A.   Overall grade: A.   Even though Mullins slipped a bit in the second half, especially at the very end of the season after reaching the 30/30 mark, I’m giving him an A for the second half and an A for the season.   Remember, there was a lot of debate about whether he’d be good enough to stick as a 4th outfielder when the season started.   He exceeded expectations more than anyone else on the team.

 Anthony Santander 1st half: .239/.281/.388, 5 HR, 18 RBI, -0.2 rWAR: D-; 2nd half: .243/.291/.472, 13 HR, 32 RBI, 0.4 rWAR: C-.  Overall grade: D.   Santander showed more power in the second half, but never really had a long run of consistent play.   One of the bigger disappointments of 2021 in my view.   I do think that he was rarely if ever 100% healthy, and we might see better things next year if he can avoid the injury bug (which is a big if).

 D.J. Stewart 1st half: .209/.317/.360, 7 HR, 21 RBI, -0.3 rWAR: D; 2nd half: .194/.336/.398, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 0.0 rWAR: D.   Overall grade: D.   Stewart played less in the second half, since Hays and Santander avoided a return to the DL.  He had trouble making contact all year.   He eventually went on the IL with a knee injury requiring surgery, and I’d like to think that this injury may have explained some of his subpar performance, but my expectations aren’t real high.  He may have trouble staying on the roster with the OF talent that’s coming.

Ryan McKenna 1st half: .200/.290/.255, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 0.4 rWAR: C-; 2nd half: .175/.293/.272, 2 HR, 10 RBI, -0.6 rWAR: D.  Overall grade: D+.   His second half offensive numbers were equally feeble to the first half, and apparently his defense wasn’t enough to keep his rWAR above water in the second half like it did in the first half.   He hit very well in AAA whenever he was down there, so it’s odd he was so helpless vs. major league pitching.  I think he’s another guy who will have to fight for his roster spot next year.

 Austin Wynns 1st half: .171/.209/.341, 2 HR, 7 RBI: Incomplete; 2nd half .191/.242/.292, 2 HR, 7 RBI, -0.6 rWAR: D-.   Overall grade: D-.   Wynns flat out can’t hit.   He’s good at controlling the running game and blocking pitches, but he’s not a good pitch framer and his moving around while the pitcher is in his delivery is, IMO, distracting to pitchers and impairs his framing.   Good clubhouse guy and respected by his teammates, but not very talented IMO.

Kelvim Gutierrez 1st half: DNP; 2nd half .248/.327/.336, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 0.8 rWAR: B.   Overall grade: B.  Gutierrez was excellent with the glove from the day we called him up, and his weak bat sort of came around in his last 25 games or so.   I expected absolutely nothing from him, so it’s easy to give him a B grade despite his overall .663 OPS and very little power.  0.8 rWAR in 45 games is a nice number.  He’s shown a decent batting eye at times, too.

Jorge Mateo 1st half: DNP; 2nd half: ,280/.328/.421, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 0.3 rWAR: B.  Overall grade: B.  We really only got a glimpse of this guy.   I think he hit better than I expect he will in a larger sample, but I’m grading him on the sample we got.   I saw him make some careless or uninstinctive plays on defense, but the tools are pretty good.   Another guy I had no expectations for, so he gets an easy B in his small sample.

Richie Martin 1st half: DNP; 2nd half: .235/.269/.286, 1 HR, 8 RBI, -1.0 rWAR: F.  Overall grade: F.  Martin is another guy who flat out can’t hit.   And, while he came to us with a very good reputation as a glove man, both in 2019 and 2021 his defense has been erratic and is graded as well below average on the advanced metrics.   I’m not sure his defense is as bad as those metrics say, but it’s nowhere near good enough to carry his anemic bat.   Give me Mateo any day over Martin.

So, who was I too generous or stingy with?     I will get around to the pitchers later (sigh).

Great stuff @Frobby

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