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MLBTR arbitration projections

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To be clear, Trey was worth .7 fWAR and .8 bWAR, so, not great, but NOT replacement level. His Career bWAR total is 8.1, however, so calling 2021 an outlier is not unreasonable. I don’t like throwing 7 million bucks at anyone, but even at  .8 is not the much of an overpay. Hyde played him even though he was not 100%, so it’s reasonable to expect better production next season. 

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6 hours ago, Philip said:

@Frobby“Impacted by illness” So I slightly stand corrected however the overall point stands: if the guy is impacted by illness, why is the manager playing him, and if he’s not impacted by illness then why does the manager say he is, and Either way, illness is the same whether he’s playing first or designated hittering.

Listen to the actual interview.  Hyde is asked to name hie favorite stories of the year.   He picks Trey Mancini because of having no real offseason.   He went from rehab and then starting in January had to start getting ready to play a 150+ game season.   And he was coming back from cancer.   Basically, he’s complimenting Mancini on a tremendous accomplishment.   He does not say Mancini’s illness impacted his season.  That’s wildcard’s interpretation, not what he said.   

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54 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Listen to the actual interview.  Hyde is asked to name hie favorite stories of the year.   He picks Trey Mancini because of having no real offseason.   He went from rehab and then starting in January had to start getting ready to play a 150+ game season.   And he was coming back from cancer.   Basically, he’s complimenting Mancini on a tremendous accomplishment.   He does not say Mancini’s illness impacted his season.  That’s wildcard’s interpretation, not what he said.   

Sounds correct.  There are several reasons why Trey had a problem 2nd half but they all amount to fatigue.

1) He did not have a normal off season to build himself up for the  the season.  He didn't have a normal off season because of the cancer treatment and the affect of that on this body

2) Hyde played him when Trey probably should have been rested because Hyde had no one better.  And Trey being paid 4.75m for the season is not going to sit when he can make it onto the field.  He feels responsible to play.  Even if he is fatigued.  Same can be said for Hays and Santander.  Both played a good part of the season on one leg. But they wanted to be out there and Hyde had no  one better to play.

3) Trey decided to be in the homer run derby contest at the All- Star break.  Instead of resting he  over extended himself.  He is not the first guy to have a bad 2nd half after being in the homer run derby.   But with the O's not trying to win he felt his was a good year to participate.   

All this does not have to extend into Trey's 2022 season.  

A.  He gets a full offseason to build up his body.

B.  Stowers and Nuestrom should arrive sometime next season and give the outfielders and DH time off when needed. Adley will also DH at times giving Trey breaks.

C.  Hopefully Trey will not be in the homer run derby next season.

All this adds up to Trey being in a better position to have a healthy/less fatigued season in 2022 which should lead to better performance in the 2nd half. Speculation? Sure.   But I call it logic.

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Let’s also not forget that while 2019 was a great offensive year for Trey, this isn’t a guy who, prior to 2019 was lighting up the world with his bat.

I think he is an 800ish OPS guy for the next few years.  For 6.5-7M, he has value.  Beyond that, he’s not worth it.

So yea, I think he’s better than what 2021 ended up with but I don’t think he sniffs 2019.  At best, he gets back to 2017 levels.

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4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Sounds correct.  There are several reasons why Trey had a problem 2nd half but they all amount to fatigue.

1) He did not have a normal off season to build himself up for the  the season.  He didn't have a normal off season because of the cancer treatment and the affect of that on this body

2) Hyde played him when Trey probably should have been rested because Hyde had no one better.  And Trey being paid 4.75m for the season is not going to sit when he can make it onto the field.  He feels responsible to play.  Even if he is fatigued.  Same can be said for Hays and Santander.  Both played a good part of the season on one leg. But they wanted to be out there and Hyde had no  one better to play.

3) Trey decided to be in the homer run derby contest at the All- Star break.  Instead of resting he  over extended himself.  He is not the first guy to have a bad 2nd half after being in the homer run derby.   But with the O's not trying to win he felt his was a good year to participate.   

All this does not have to extend into Trey's 2022 season.  

A.  He gets a full offseason to build up his body.

B.  Stowers and Nuestrom should arrive sometime next season and give the outfielders and DH time off when needed. Adley will also DH at times giving Trey breaks.

C.  Hopefully Trey will not be in the homer run derby next season.

All this adds up to Trey being in a better position to have a healthy/less fatigued season in 2022 which should lead to better performance in the 2nd half. Speculation? Sure.   But I call it logic.

I reject the HR derby explanation.  He hit 1.085 OPS in the 11 games following the all star break.   Otherwise, I do think it’s likely that he got a little more fatigued than he would have if the 2020 season and 2020-21 offseason had been “normal” for him.   We simply don’t know for sure that this is the reason he didn’t hit as well in the second half.

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11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I reject the HR derby explanation.  He hit 1.085 OPS in the 11 games following the all star break.   Otherwise, I do think it’s likely that he got a little more fatigued than he would have if the 2020 season and 2020-21 offseason had been “normal” for him.   We simply don’t know for sure that this is the reason he didn’t hit as well in the second half.

Yea, it’s a bs excuse.  I buy that he got tired and was weaker in the second half.  As I said, he also had the oblique issue in September.  It all contributed.

If I was a team and wanted to acquire him, I would expect him to bounce back and be better in 2022.  
 

But let’s stop sugar coating things with reasons that are baseless.  

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On 10/11/2021 at 6:18 PM, Frobby said:

Yes, that was ridiculous.   I think they had an unrealistic number for Mancini in Arb 1, and maybe Gausman in his last year.   I forget.  

Edit: No, I didn’t forget    They had projected Mancini at $5.7 mm for 2020;  he got $4.75 mm.   They projected Gausman for $6.8 mm in 2018; he got $5.6 mm.

 


 

Did they settle for those amounts or were those arbitration awards?

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4 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Did they settle for those amounts or were those arbitration awards?

All three settled, as 90% of all Arb-eligible players do.   Mancini and Villar reached their agreements without ever getting to the point of formally submitting a figure to the arbitrator.   Gausman submitted a figure that was substantially less than the MLBTR estimate, and then settled for significantly under his arbitration demand.  

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7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Listen to the actual interview.  Hyde is asked to name hie favorite stories of the year.   He picks Trey Mancini because of having no real offseason.   He went from rehab and then starting in January had to start getting ready to play a 150+ game season.   And he was coming back from cancer.   Basically, he’s complimenting Mancini on a tremendous accomplishment.   He does not say Mancini’s illness impacted his season.  That’s wildcard’s interpretation, not what he said.   

The point remains valid. Trey was tired/coming off illness(which is not the same as injury, mind) which affected his play, yet Hyde played him anyway, and played Santander anyway, I guess on the grounds that an injured Santander is better than a healthy Stewart, but I digress.

The take away is that Mancini wore out in the second half because of inadequate preparation because of his cancer treatment. That’s so obvious it doesn’t bear discussion. Also obvious is that this off-season he will have normal preparation and aside from any normal age-related decline, which shouldn’t be meaningful yet, he should be better for longer next season.

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19 minutes ago, Philip said:

The point remains valid. Trey was tired/coming off illness(which is not the same as injury, mind) which affected his play, yet Hyde played him anyway, and played Santander anyway, I guess on the grounds that an injured Santander is better than a healthy Stewart, but I digress.

The take away is that Mancini wore out in the second half because of inadequate preparation because of his cancer treatment. That’s so obvious it doesn’t bear discussion.

It is absolutely not that obvious.   Players who don’t have cancer and don’t have their seasons disrupted have subpar second halves all the time.   And we know Mancini was dealing with oblique tightness late in the year, and have no reason to think that was related to his pre-season preparation.   So, I’m sticking to my guns.   It is possible, maybe even likely, that Trey’s unique situation contributed to his second half downturn. But it is far from certain that it did.   

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It is absolutely not that obvious.   Players who don’t have cancer and don’t have their seasons disrupted have subpar second halves all the time.   And we know Mancini was dealing with oblique tightness late in the year, and have no reason to think that was related to his pre-season preparation.   So, I’m sticking to my guns.   It is possible, maybe even likely, that Trey’s unique situation contributed to his second half downturn. But it is far from certain that it did.   

Use Occams Razor. Given the extreme nature of his situation, it is far more likely to have had a negative effect than not.

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14 minutes ago, Philip said:

Use Occams Razor. Given the extreme nature of his situation, it is far more likely to have had a negative effect than not.

The Occam's Razor explanation is Mancini just isn't that great. 

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10 minutes ago, Philip said:

Use Occams Razor. Given the extreme nature of his situation, it is far more likely to have had a negative effect than not.

I would have said that the most likely thing is that he wouldn’t have been prepared to begin the season because he hadn’t had adequate time to work himself into shape.   But that didn’t seem to be the case.   

Anyway, I’m done debating whether Mancini’s cancer and rehab were definitely the cause of his second half decline, vs. them merely being a likely cause.  Nobody is dismissing the idea or saying it’s unlikely.   

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4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, it’s a bs excuse.  I buy that he got tired and was weaker in the second half.  As I said, he also had the oblique issue in September.  It all contributed.

If I was a team and wanted to acquire him, I would expect him to bounce back and be better in 2022.  
 

But let’s stop sugar coating things with reasons that are baseless.  

How much is a .800 OPS DH/1B worth who is entering his final year of arbitration.  Any chance the NL adds the DH this year?   That would seem likely to elevate his value.

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