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MLBTR arbitration projections

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1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

How much is a .800 OPS DH/1B worth who is entering his final year of arbitration.  Any chance the NL adds the DH this year?   That would seem likely to elevate his value.

Worth is in the eye of the beholder.  I personally don’t feel he’s worth a lot but I think there is still value there.

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5 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

How much is a .800 OPS DH/1B worth who is entering his final year of arbitration.  Any chance the NL adds the DH this year?   That would seem likely to elevate his value.

With a new CBA on the horizon I think odds are pretty good.

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On 10/11/2021 at 1:41 PM, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Lol at Pat Valaika. If there was any doubt in Valaika not getting non-tendered before that should settle any doubt. 

I can’t see Severino staying for $3M with his defense and AR on the horizon. Is there any chance the O’s could work out a trade? 

I doubt it.

Not like the other teams dont know if he cant play catcher.

 

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10 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I doubt it.

Not like the other teams dont know if he cant play catcher.

 

It's funny how folks think guys are not good enough to play for what is literally the worst team in baseball and yet think other teams will give up value to acquire them.

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On 10/11/2021 at 1:37 PM, ChrisP said:
  • Trey Mancini – $7.9MM (Yes)
  • Pedro Severino – $3.1MM (No)
  • Pat Valaika – $1.3MM (No)
  • Anthony Santander – $3.7MM (Yes)
  • Jorge Lopez – $1.5MM (Yes, as a RP)
  • Paul Fry – $1.1MM (?, probably)
  • Tanner Scott – $1.0MM (?, Not sure here either)
  • John Means – $3.1MM (Yes)

Gotta Keep Mancini, hope he puts in work this winter and gets stronger. Could still have a really good season next year. Leader. Potential trade candidate at all star break.

Gotta keep Santander and hope he stays healthy. Risk reward is worth it. 30 Homer potential. Could build trade value or they could decide to keep him for next 3 seasons. 

Means for sure, but I am interested in his first full season without the sticky stuff. 

Tanner Scott has got to be brought back. He still has Enough upside to be a closer.

I think severino and be cut then resigned for 1.5 million. I don't think he makes that much any where else. If he ain't down for that, probably cut him

Lopez for 1.5? I put my trust in the analytics guys there, bring him back if they think he can be relief guy

Fry, he has enough track record to be brought back, but he fell hard last year. I wouldn't complain if they brought him back. 

I think valaika has got to go at this point but MIF is very thin. I hope they sign a Guy. Urias and Mateo is not enough depth though

 

 

 

 

 

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I love that the O's can't afford to pay good (I'm not even expecting elite) free agents, but they are somehow obligated to overpay guys who probably aren't going to even earn their pay.  Not sure the goal is even to win, maybe it's to maximize profit.  Hoping the reason for maximizing profit is to prepare the team for sale because this team is very hard to get excited about. 

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21 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's funny how folks think guys are not good enough to play for what is literally the worst team in baseball and yet think other teams will give up value to acquire them.

You got that right.

I guess, is the old thing, where my crap aint really worth anything, but I think its worth way.

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15 hours ago, ScGO's said:

tuff. 

Tanner Scott has got to be brought back. He still has Enough upside to be a closer.

I agree with all of your comments, however Scott has shown that he is too inconsistent to be used high leverage situations. Bring him back, yes of course, $1 million is nothing, but you’re only bringing him back because your replacement options are bad. As soon as we find a guy who can strike out fellows without walking as many, he’s gone.

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I just don’t see us DFA’inf Severino for nothing. Catcher is too thin. Catchers always get hurt in season. Contenders want to have two catchers that can hit. Severino has value. Unless we’re so strapped for cash, I think he stays, or gets traded. He’s not going away for nothing. Heck, Elias traded Cobb. 

Edited by sportsfan8703

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15 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I just don’t see us DFA’inf Severino for nothing. Catcher is too thin. Catchers always get hurt in season. Contenders want to have two catchers that can hit. Severino has value. Unless we’re so strapped for cash, I think he stays, or gets traded. He’s not going away for nothing. Heck, Elias traded Cobb. 

It’s a dilemma.   Severino is worth something, but he’s not going to be worth to the Orioles what he gets paid in arbitration, because he’s not going to be our starter for most of the year.   So, I think he’ll either be traded to a team that will get him more reps than we would, or he’ll be nontendered if we don’t find a trade partner.   

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23 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I just don’t see us DFA’inf Severino for nothing. Catcher is too thin. Catchers always get hurt in season. Contenders want to have two catchers that can hit. Severino has value. Unless we’re so strapped for cash, I think he stays, or gets traded. He’s not going away for nothing. Heck, Elias traded Cobb. 

I just don’t see any team thinking he’s worth the 3M he may get in arbitration. My guess is he’s a non-tender and signs with someone for 1.5-2M

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2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I just don’t see any team thinking he’s worth the 3M he may get in arbitration. My guess is he’s a non-tender and signs with someone for 1.5-2M

Take a look around at what contending teams that trot out two decent hitting catchers are paying. Severino is just worth 3mm. 
 

My idea on some possibilities,

- He could start for the Indians. 
- 2nd catcher for HOU. 
- 2nd catcher for SEA. 
- 2nd catcher for Mets

- 2nd Catcher for St Louis

These are just the options I see. Haven’t really looked at impending FAs or impending arb numbers for other guys. 

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On 10/11/2021 at 1:37 PM, ChrisP said:
  • Trey Mancini – $7.9MM (Yes) $6.9 mm
  • Anthony Santander – $3.7MM (Yes) $4.0 mm
  • Jorge Lopez – $1.5MM (Yes, as a RP) $1.2 mm
  • Paul Fry – $1.1MM (?, probably) $1.25 mm 
  • Tanner Scott – $1.0MM (?, Not sure here either) $1.2 mm
  • John Means – $3.1MM (Yes) $2.8 mm

Cot’s has its own projections, which I’ve added above after the MLBTR projections.   I eliminated Severino and Valaika.

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