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The Tampa pitching as a model

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The one thing that is clear about the Rays formula, it works well in the regular seasons but until they can win a World Series, they're nothing more than the new Oakland A's. Only good enough to win in the regular season.

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Obviously the Tampa model says you trade Rich Hill to the Mets at the deadline for Matt Dyer, an A ball catcher/utility with a .872 OPS (plus the remaining contract of 60 day IL P Tommy Hunter).  They can hope Matt Dyer gives them a Kike’ Hernandez performance in 2024 I guess.

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7 minutes ago, JimGinSP said:

Obviously the Tampa model says you trade Rich Hill to the Mets at the deadline for Matt Dyer, an A ball catcher/utility with a .872 OPS (plus the remaining contract of 60 day IL P Tommy Hunter).  They can hope Matt Dyer gives them a Kike’ Hernandez performance in 2024 I guess.

Don't forget Austin Shenton, payoff for the Diego Castillo to JT Chargois step back.

Chargois is an okay pitcher in his own right, but I was surprised to learn finally looking it up this evening Castillo hadn't even gotten to Arb1 yet, so not even savings like with prorated remainder of Hill's 1 year/$2.5M in the wake of taking on the last two months of Cruz's 1 year/$13M.

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11 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Yeah... I'd say that I would love the O's to have a list of drafted pitchers like that. Have the O's even drafted that many successful pitchers over the last 30 years?

True, but none of them have been there in years. And which of them beyond Price has been productive after they left TB?

The current model they seem to like is to make several trades and acquire talent they can improve upon and flip for more talent. They sign a Charlie Morton, a Rich Hill, a Chris Archer, etc…and get them to pitch well. They have had several successful reclaimation projects. The trade they made for Archer to get back Austin Meadows, Shane Baz, and Tyler Glasnow…good grief! But then they sign Wander Franco. They get Patino for Snell. The list goes on.

They are a regular season juggernaut. They got nothing from Lowe and Cruz against Boston. Franco, Arozarena, Kiermier and Meadows showed well, but not enough. 

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10 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

The one thing that is clear about the Rays formula, it works well in the regular seasons but until they can win a World Series, they're nothing more than the new Oakland A's. Only good enough to win in the regular season.

Well, at least they have gotten to the WS and been in the ALCS.

The problem with Tampa in the playoffs is that elite guys give you a margin for error and the Rays tend to get rid of their elite guys quickly because of cost and thus, they end up with a team that is very good and not great and very good is more vulnerable in a short series.

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If Tampa's model can get a team to 100 win vs three division arrival  that won 90 games  it shows real benefit.   If it has to be tweaked to add some star power to win in the playoffs I think that can be done in a market like Baltimore.

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I think Wander probably will be the best centerpiece they have ever had, and by Arb3 may contend for the biggest salary in franchise history.   Maybe Montreal revenue helps them retain him and a few others longer than they usually have, but as is the best Adley teams I feel have a chance not to have the Franco/Arozarena/McClanahan/Baz group to contend with.

Age 28 Adley will of course have another crop of the world's best younglings to challenge his team, but championship caliber baseball is hard even if you are blessed with Baz or McClanahan's talent (though easy in Wander's case - wowza).

The Baz preview was especially fun to watch insofar as this summer he seemed perhaps the most similar baseball pitching human to Grayson Rodriguez from an overall effectiveness / prep arm you dream on coming along like you hope perspective.    

(Hopefully our guy with better command and 3rd pitch already!)

Entering the offseason, good Rays nearing transform to fertilizer mode (2021 salaries)

Rising Arb3's - Tyler Glasnow ($4M), Manuel Margot ($3.4M)

Rising Arb2's - Ji-Man Choi ($2.45M), Ryan Yarbrough ($2.3M), Joey Wendle ($2.25M)

In their Rising Arb1 class, I guess Chargois (130 career innings of 110 ERA+) will command maybe just half what Diego Castillo (200 innings of 140 ERA+) will, so if you are 70% as effective for 50% of the cost, you can't not do that.

 

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35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, at least they have gotten to the WS and been in the ALCS.

The problem with Tampa in the playoffs is that elite guys give you a margin for error and the Rays tend to get rid of their elite guys quickly because of cost and thus, they end up with a team that is very good and not great and very good is more vulnerable in a short series.

I’m in the camp that the results of short series are pretty random and you shouldn’t draw broad conclusions from them.   Tampa won 9 more games than Boston this year and went 11-8 against them during the regular season.   They were the better team, but the better team doesn’t always win a short series.   The Rays have been to the WS twice in 14 years while being in the playoffs 7 times (4 times as a division winner, 3 times as a wild card).   That’s a decent postseason track record.

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One thing that seems interesting watching what the Braves have decided on in these short series - going with pitchers that throw hard.  The Braves didn't even activate Richard Rodriquez - who was effective in getting batters out but had a very low K rate.  Their relivers they're using aren't great, but they generally hit 97 MPH and have good sliders (or 1 other good breaking pitch), and so far - that's been effective - as their pen hasn't given up a run in the 1st 3 games.  

As far as starters, it's all about having 3 guys you can rely on (Morton, Fried and Anderson) who throw hard.  Even if Soroka was healthy, he might be just their 4th starter in the playoffs, because he doesn't throw as hard as the other 3.  I think they're excited to go with Ynoa as their 4th starter because he's another guy who throws 96-97 - even though he is wet behind the ears.   

 

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Of the 50 pitchers TB has used like 7 of them have been former Orioles. So that’s funny. However, that’s just a coincidence. Long term I think they are the model to follow. They got extremely lucky with the Archer trade to Pitt. If only, we got that for Gausman. And Gausman ended up having the better post trade career, just for a different team. 

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41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m in the camp that the results of short series are pretty random and you shouldn’t draw broad conclusions from them.   Tampa won 9 more games than Boston this year and went 11-8 against them during the regular season.   They were the better team, but the better team doesn’t always win a short series.   The Rays have been to the WS twice in 14 years while being in the playoffs 7 times (4 times as a division winner, 3 times as a wild card).   That’s a decent postseason track record.

That's all 100% accurate.  Still, the stars usually shine brightest in October. 

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The Rays may have been better than Boston during the season, but if you look at the Red Sox lineup that is a very deep, talented, and experienced group.  Several of those guys have been key parts of World Series winning teams, and that matters when the pressure is on.

Brandon Lowe really killed Tampa.  I thought Adam Jones was a terrible postseason player, but Lowe is like Jones x 2.  113 ABs and an OPS in the low 4s for your postseason career is just miserable.  Can’t win many series offering what he and Cruz gave Tampa in the most critical spots of the order.  

They really need to invest in a couple of superstars if they are interested in a title. 

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2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, at least they have gotten to the WS and been in the ALCS.

The problem with Tampa in the playoffs is that elite guys give you a margin for error and the Rays tend to get rid of their elite guys quickly because of cost and thus, they end up with a team that is very good and not great and very good is more vulnerable in a short series.

I do believe those big stars are what typically shine in the bright lights, and the Rays just don't really have them. They always have these inexperienced talented guys but ultimately, they've come up short year after year when it matters. 

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I do believe those big stars are what typically shine in the bright lights, and the Rays just don't really have them. They always have these inexperienced talented guys but ultimately, they've come up short year after year when it matters. 

It would be interesting to study whether experienced/heralded players do better in the postseason than less experienced, more anonymous players, in comparison to how they performed in the regular season.   It probably would take a lot of work to piece something like that together.   

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11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It would be interesting to study whether experienced/heralded players do better in the postseason than less experienced, more anonymous players, in comparison to how they performed in the regular season.   It probably would take a lot of work to piece something like that together.   

It would, and admittedly, I'm just going off what I see of late vs doing any kind of study. Obviously we have Orioles history of guys like Tito Landrum, Rick Dempsey and Delmond Yong coming up big in key situations in the World Series or playoffs and none of them were big stars.

I don't know, but what I do know is that teams like the A's and Tampa, who have done great things to change how to compete with a smaller payroll, have also not broken through yet with a World Series victory.

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