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Frobby

Glutton for punishment: comparing 2018, 2019 and 2021

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2018

Record: 47-115

R/G: 3.84 (0.69 worse than league average)

ERA: 5.18 (0.91 worse than league average)

Unearned runs: 68 (14 worse than league average)

Run differential: -270 (Pythagorean record 55-107)

2019

Record: 54-108

R/G: 4.50 (0.38 worse than league average)

ERA: 5.59 (0.99 worse than league average)

Unearned runs: 84 (23 worse than league average)

Run differential: -252 (Pythagorean record 60-102)

2021

 

Record: 52-110

R/G: 4.07 (0.53 worse than league average)

ERA: 5.84 (1.52 worse than league average)

Unearned runs: 46 (22 better than league average)

Run differential: -297 (Pythagorean record 54-108)

 

Looking at this, the pitching has just gotten worse and worse.   In the short 2020 season, the ERA was a miraculous 4.51.   One can only assume that if they'd played 162, it would have been a lot worse due to lack of depth.   The offense is very bad too, and took a step in the wrong direction this year, but it is nowhere near as bad as the pitching.

So, I'd like to see the offense improve, but if we want major improvement as a team, it's the pitching that needs to take a major step forward.

 

 

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I think we see a big jump for pitching when Adley takes over. From pitch sequence, to keeping guys steady, to pitch framing, all will add up to a resurgence for a lot of our pitchers and a steady progression for others. I look at his effect on our pitching staff and the team in general to the same effect seen with Buster and Molina to their respective teams. As for the hitting, Mayo, Henderson, Westburg, Nevin, Neustrom, Hernandez, Stowers are coming and this team will see a huge leap forward to contending for the World Series faster than many believe possible. Two years gentleman. Two years.

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6 minutes ago, Explosivo said:

I think we see a big jump for pitching when Adley takes over. From pitch sequence, to keeping guys steady, to pitch framing, all will add up to a resurgence for a lot of our pitchers and a steady progression for others. I look at his effect on our pitching staff and the team in general to the same effect seen with Buster and Molina to their respective teams. As for the hitting, Mayo, Henderson, Westburg, Nevin, Neustrom, Hernandez, Stowers are coming and this team will see a huge leap forward to contending for the World Series faster than many believe possible. Two years gentleman. Two years.

I do think we will see some impact but I'm not sure it's going to be that large.  Have we seen a big difference between when he catches and doesn't for the pitching staffs in the minors?

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Adley will help to improve the team some, but he cannot create talent where there is pitifully little.  Now with all the high draft choices and the horrible records of the past few years, of course one would expect to see some improvement in W/L.  But as my 95 year Grandmother always  said before she passed on,  YOU CANNOT MAKE A SILK PURSE OUT OF A SOWS EAR.  Same applies to baseball talent.  You cannot  come up with enough talent in the short term, and maybe a little beyond,  to  overcome  all the sins of  the previous number of years.    

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I was looking at the pitching free agents available over at MLBtraderumors.com, and I remember thinking that we are going to look at the worst guy in the pile, and then manage to find someone worse.

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13 hours ago, Frobby said:

2018

Record: 47-115

R/G: 3.84 (0.69 worse than league average)

ERA: 5.18 (0.91 worse than league average)

Unearned runs: 68 (14 worse than league average)

Run differential: -270 (Pythagorean record 55-107)

2019

Record: 54-108

R/G: 4.50 (0.38 worse than league average)

ERA: 5.59 (0.99 worse than league average)

Unearned runs: 84 (23 worse than league average)

Run differential: -252 (Pythagorean record 60-102)

2021

 

Record: 52-110

R/G: 4.07 (0.53 worse than league average)

ERA: 5.84 (1.52 worse than league average)

Unearned runs: 46 (22 better than league average)

Run differential: -297 (Pythagorean record 54-108)

 

Looking at this, the pitching has just gotten worse and worse.   In the short 2020 season, the ERA was a miraculous 4.51.   One can only assume that if they'd played 162, it would have been a lot worse due to lack of depth.   The offense is very bad too, and took a step in the wrong direction this year, but it is nowhere near as bad as the pitching.

So, I'd like to see the offense improve, but if we want major improvement as a team, it's the pitching that needs to take a major step forward.

 

 

Don't worry we have all those high draft pick pitchers working thru the system.... or er we are going to trade all those marginal college outfielders for a pitcher or two??

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13 hours ago, Explosivo said:

I think we see a big jump for pitching when Adley takes over. From pitch sequence, to keeping guys steady, to pitch framing, all will add up to a resurgence for a lot of our pitchers and a steady progression for others. I look at his effect on our pitching staff and the team in general to the same effect seen with Buster and Molina to their respective teams. As for the hitting, Mayo, Henderson, Westburg, Nevin, Neustrom, Hernandez, Stowers are coming and this team will see a huge leap forward to contending for the World Series faster than many believe possible. Two years gentleman. Two years.

I think we're already expecting too much out of AR.  He might help a little in those areas but unless the sheer talent level of the pitching staff changes, AR isn't going to magically take what we have to some unforeseen heights.  

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24 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think we're already expecting too much out of AR.  He might help a little in those areas but unless the sheer talent level of the pitching staff changes, AR isn't going to magically take what we have to some unforeseen heights.  

Agreed. It's pitching talent at the end of the day. The Orioles have some good pitchers on the farm, but they're going to have to find a way to supplement that.  

While the Orioles have had some poor results bringing in starting pitchers via FA in Ubaldo and Cobb, they have found guys that worked well in Chen and Gonzalez, both of whom were well worth their contracts.  

It will be interesting to see the direction they take this off-season. My guess is more reclamation project pitchers ala Harvey. 

 

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think we're already expecting too much out of AR.  He might help a little in those areas but unless the sheer talent level of the pitching staff changes, AR isn't going to magically take what we have to some unforeseen heights.  

The thing is, the Orioles do have some talented guys but they completely underperformed in 2021.  Can Adley change that?  I don't know.  I think he helps and perhaps he helps a lot but I will also say that if the young guys perform much better in 2022 than they did in 2021, I think its likely that Adley will get too much of the credit for that.  He will deserve some credit but probably not the amount he will get.

Guys will get better because they try a new pitch, change something mechanically, have a better mindset, feel healthier, etc....it won't be just one thing.

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The big jump in pitching, if there is one, will be from the young pitchers having taken their lumps in their first couple years and figuring out how to pitch up to their talent levels, rather than below it. 

Also, G-Rod. 

Also, the bullpen should be improved. 

Also, Adley, but he's further down the list in terms of impact for me.

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2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think we're already expecting too much out of AR.  He might help a little in those areas but unless the sheer talent level of the pitching staff changes, AR isn't going to magically take what we have to some unforeseen heights.  

I expect Baltimore's homicide rate to be cut in half as soon as he is promoted.   And the grocery shortages caused by supply chain issues to disappear.  And there won't be any more stink bugs getting into people's houses either.

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2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think we're already expecting too much out of AR.  He might help a little in those areas but unless the sheer talent level of the pitching staff changes, AR isn't going to magically take what we have to some unforeseen heights.  

What!  So your saying Adley won't turn the O's staff full of waiver wire pitchers and marginal prospects into a team of young aces and shutdown relievers. 

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4 hours ago, interloper said:

The big jump in pitching, if there is one, will be from the young pitchers having taken their lumps in their first couple years and figuring out how to pitch up to their talent levels, rather than below it. 

Also, G-Rod. 

Also, the bullpen should be improved. 

Also, Adley, but he's further down the list in terms of impact for me.

Also, DL Hall.

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