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Frobby

Wander Franco 12/$223 mm

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If so, probably a win-win deal.   Tampa gets all of Franco’s prime years at something of a discount, Franco gets financial security and a shot at one more big deal when he’s 32.    

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Not to mention that cost certainty for trading the ~6/180 part after the ~6/43 part.

A nice until Age 32 yardstick though if Elias and Adley want to try and cook something up for a free agent season or two.   Right now Adley might take something that values a FA year at ~30% off the Wander number here, but that deep a discount will vanish fast if he can play like most think he can.

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5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

WhAt dOeS tHiS MeAn fOr tHe OrIOlEs aNd RuTsChMan??!?!?!1111

Probably not a lot.  Catchers are a whole different animal because they don’t hold up as long.   

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29 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

WhAt dOeS tHiS MeAn fOr tHe OrIOlEs aNd RuTsChMan??!?!?!1111

I mean, it's a legitimate question. Frobby is right (as usual) and I had the same thought that it's not an apples to apples comparison in years or dollars because of the position difference, but it does make you wonder what this type of deal could look like for Rutschman. 

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1 minute ago, Sanfran327 said:

I mean, it's a legitimate question. Frobby is right (as usual) and I had the same thought that it's not an apples to apples comparison in years or dollars because of the position difference, but it does make you wonder what this type of deal could look like for Rutschman. 

It's really not.  

Franco came up, played in 70 games and was so good so soon that he finished 3rd in the RoY voting.  He accumulated 3.5 WAR in less than half a season.  He turns 21 in March.

Rutschman has not made his debut (a big part of that is not his fault).   We don't know how good he'll be in the majors.  He turns 24 in February.  He plays a significantly more demanding position.

Both are looked at as future cornerstones of their respective franchises.  That's where the similarities end.  

The similarities also end when you realize that Tampa is an exceedingly well run, forward thinking franchise.  The Orioles, for the most part, are not.  Even if you wanted to try to extrapolate what an early deal like this would look like for AR, you've got to wonder if ownership would be smart enough to make it happen.  

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ESPN story is saying it as 11/185, implying perhaps final option Year 12 is about $38M to get it to the 12/223 way it is also being said.

I would guess some MVP bonus type things are in there.

For now, B-Ref still has only Bauer's 2021 season in the 40's.   Scherzer might challenge that if he picks Syndergaard's AAV a little bit more than Eduardo's years.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/leaders_salaries.shtml

 

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12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's really not.  

Franco came up, played in 70 games and was so good so soon that he finished 3rd in the RoY voting.  He accumulated 3.5 WAR in less than half a season.  He turns 21 in March.

Rutschman has not made his debut (a big part of that is not his fault).   We don't know how good he'll be in the majors.  He turns 24 in February.  He plays a significantly more demanding position.

Both are looked at as future cornerstones of their respective franchises.  That's where the similarities end.  

The similarities also end when you realize that Tampa is an exceedingly well run, forward thinking franchise.  The Orioles, for the most part, are not.  Even if you wanted to try to extrapolate what an early deal like this would look like for AR, you've got to wonder if ownership would be smart enough to make it happen.  

I guess in a nutshell, we can agree to disagree then. But here are a few counterpoints anyway:

Franco's performance was just about expected, and he delivered as they hoped he would. The same could be said for AR. Hopefully we know more in 10 months.

Age and position difference, as we already said, are the primary reasons why this isn't an apples to apples comparison, but I still think it's a decent off-season thought exercise. I guess you don't. OK.

Your last point is what's driving your apathy here. No way in hell the O's strike a deal like this with AR, but we've been speculating about never-will-bes on this board since its inception. Just keeping it going. It's a hot stove tradition.

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Just now, Sanfran327 said:

I guess in a nutshell, we can agree to disagree then. But here are a few counterpoints anyway:

Franco's performance was just about expected, and he delivered as they hoped he would. The same could be said for AR. Hopefully we know more in 10 months.

Age and position difference, as we already said, are the primary reasons why this isn't an apples to apples comparison, but I still think it's a decent off-season thought exercise. I guess you don't. OK.

Your last point is what's driving your apathy here. No way in hell the O's strike a deal like this with AR, but we've been speculating about never-will-bes on this board since its inception. Just keeping it going. It's a hot stove tradition.

Yep, hopefully AR delivers.  

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To me, this is a BIG risk for Tampa. How many top prospects never met their potential in the majors?  For a small market team like us, this deal has the potential to be incredibly smart or can wreck your franchise for the next decade. 

Will be interesting to see how it turns out. 

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1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

ESPN story is saying it as 11/185, implying perhaps final option Year 12 is about $38M to get it to the 12/223 way it is also being said.

I would guess some MVP bonus type things are in there.

For now, B-Ref still has only Bauer's 2021 season in the 40's.   Scherzer might challenge that if he picks Syndergaard's AAV a little bit more than Eduardo's years.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/leaders_salaries.shtml

 

Franco is likely getting traded by the Rays well before any option year kicks in. 

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John Hart had a graphic on MLB Now this afternoon choosing Lindor as a comp, and illustrating in his first 12 years he is set to receive $257M, though of course in addition to the ~$30M in 12-year savings the main benefit is not having to pay guarantees later into the player's 30's.

Correa's only at $27M in MLB earnings not having been as successful as Lindor early for Arb.   He could probably get 6/230 to get to Lindor's number if he went short, but I think he'll hunt the years.

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