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Moose Milligan

I'm already over this offseason.

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36 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

What should really throw Orioles fans into a fit this off season is the Pirates have signed two free agents, and they are arguably a year behind the Orioles in their rebuild.

 

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Orioles timetable seems...unique.

Can't expect them to act like a big market team like the Pirates or Rays.

I must have missed the big Pirates signings.   Who are we talking about?   Nate Kirby signing a MiL deal?   Who else?

https://www.mlb.com/pirates/roster/transactions

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17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

I must have missed the big Pirates signings.   Who are we talking about?   Nate Kirby signing a MiL deal?   Who else?

https://www.mlb.com/pirates/roster/transactions

They signed Quintana this week.  He has some super interesting underlying stats that suggest taking a chance on him might have been a good idea (FIP under 4).  

Then there is a report they have agreed to a deal with Yoshi Tsutusgo, who did very well them late in the year.

Not big signing but when your team (Orioles) has $0 in payroll obligations outside of base salaries you expect them to take some chances.

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2 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

They signed Quintana this week.  He has some super interesting underlying stats that suggest taking a chance on him might have been a good idea (FIP under 4).  

Then there is a report they have agreed to a deal with Yoshi Tsutusgo, who did very well them late in the year.

Not big signing but when your team (Orioles) has $0 in payroll obligations outside of base salaries you expect them to take some chances.

That isn't true.  They do owe deferred payments to several players.  Cobb, Trumbo, O'Day, Cashner and Davis according to Spotrac.

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22 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

They signed Quintana this week.  He has some super interesting underlying stats that suggest taking a chance on him might have been a good idea (FIP under 4).  

Then there is a report they have agreed to a deal with Yoshi Tsutusgo, who did very well them late in the year.

Not big signing but when your team (Orioles) has $0 in payroll obligations outside of base salaries you expect them to take some chances.

Well, I would like to see them take some chances like those.   I don’t think what Elias has said rules that out, nor does the fact that we haven’t done anything before Thanksgiving.   But we’ll see — I’m not saying I expect any such signings, either.   

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3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

That isn't true.  They do owe deferred payments to several players.  Cobb, Trumbo, O'Day, Cashner and Davis according to Spotrac.

Ouch, X5. So much for "a clean slate." Ghosts of FA Xmases past...

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On 11/24/2021 at 8:27 AM, Moose Milligan said:

Matz to the Cardinals, 4 years/44 million.

That's Ubaldo money. That's Cobb money.  That's a contract this team easily could have afforded.  Even if they had to pay a little extra because we suck and the Cardinals don't, they could have gotten him.  

Yep, I'm already over this offseason, as usual there's no aggressive moves, no targeted list of players they want to go after and make offers to.  As usual, it'll be table scraps come mid February when we're looking around to see who hasn't signed and is desperate to land somewhere.  It's as plain as day to me that this franchise is going to wait until AR, G-Rod, Hall and whoever else is up before they spend anything.  

 

The point you bring up about Ubaldo and Cobb is answering your question.  Did those guys move the needle for us?

Did signing the Chad Bradford’s and David Segui’s of the world do anything to move the needle two decades ago?  

The answer is no.  

Now, I am not saying that we should keep dumpster-diving.  I personally think with the state of the minor league system, it is time to sign a Jayson Werth/George Springer type veteran to come in and take leadership in the locker room and lead the young guys by example.  But to sign a guy like Stephen Matz or DeSclafini to $10m a year plus contracts is just not a smart investment, whether you are a competing team or not.  Let’s bank that money for when we have to extend AR, or to make that splash leadership signing.   

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18 minutes ago, ThomasTomasz said:

The point you bring up about Ubaldo and Cobb is answering your question.  Did those guys move the needle for us?

Did signing the Chad Bradford’s and David Segui’s of the world do anything to move the needle two decades ago?  

The answer is no.  

Now, I am not saying that we should keep dumpster-diving.  I personally think with the state of the minor league system, it is time to sign a Jayson Werth/George Springer type veteran to come in and take leadership in the locker room and lead the young guys by example.  But to sign a guy like Stephen Matz or DeSclafini to $10m a year plus contracts is just not a smart investment, whether you are a competing team or not.  Let’s bank that money for when we have to extend AR, or to make that splash leadership signing.   

Because we have any evidence that money not spent today will be money available tomorrow.

 

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7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because we have any evidence that money not spent today will be money available tomorrow.

 

With the amount of changes made to the front office and development pipeline, I am willing to give the benefit of the doubt that they will follow what the Astros and others did and start spending when the time is right.  I never thought Peter would allow them to go into Latin America, but here we are.  I never thought we would have a legit analytics department, but here we are.  I never thought some of the guys who were let go would ever be let go, but again, here we are.  

I definitely understand where some might not give them the benefit of the doubt, and that is OK.  It’s also not our money, no matter what side of the discussion we sit on.  Either way, I also don’t see spending that kind of money on middling 30 and over starters as being something that is going to move the needle.  

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3 hours ago, ThomasTomasz said:

The point you bring up about Ubaldo and Cobb is answering your question.  Did those guys move the needle for us?

Did signing the Chad Bradford’s and David Segui’s of the world do anything to move the needle two decades ago?  

The answer is no.  

Now, I am not saying that we should keep dumpster-diving.  I personally think with the state of the minor league system, it is time to sign a Jayson Werth/George Springer type veteran to come in and take leadership in the locker room and lead the young guys by example.  But to sign a guy like Stephen Matz or DeSclafini to $10m a year plus contracts is just not a smart investment, whether you are a competing team or not.  Let’s bank that money for when we have to extend AR, or to make that splash leadership signing.   

That’s right. You’re exactly right. Every 4/44 contract or a contract in that range won’t move the needle. Ever. We should never sign another player to a deal like that ever again. 
 

Lesson learned. 

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5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because we have any evidence that money not spent today will be money available tomorrow.

 

We definitely have evidence the opposite is true, i.e. overspending on bad contracts means more constraints on future payroll. We also have no evidence to the contrary.

 

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5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

That’s right. You’re exactly right. Every 4/44 contract or a contract in that range won’t move the needle. Ever. We should never sign another player to a deal like that ever again. 
 

Lesson learned. 

I agree with you completely, a lot of this type of contract gets signed and succeeds. This is what I will say about contract though.  Anecdotally it feels to me like the 2/$32-34 contracts work out a lot more often.  LeMahieu, Morton...

Also I would say this, if a small market team realizes its window is four years long it should not be signing these deals in year 3 or 4.  

You have to be real about it when you are a small market team, sustained competitive windows dont exist.  (Obligatory Tampa is an outlier statement here).  Plan for four year windows or get wrecked.

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2 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I agree with you completely, a lot of this type of contract gets signed and succeeds. This is what I will say about contract though.  Anecdotally it feels to me like the 2/$32-34 contracts work out a lot more often.  LeMahieu, Morton...

Also I would say this, if a small market team realizes its window is four years long it should not be signing these deals in year 3 or 4.  

You have to be real about it when you are a small market team, sustained competitive windows dont exist.  (Obligatory Tampa is an outlier statement here).  Plan for four year windows or get wrecked.

I like the thinking here. Again, it seems the task for Elias now is to arrive at greater confidence in when the real window starts. Previous premature announcements of "the Cavalry" come to mind to suggest caution. Statements like "This is the best looking crop of young prospects, etc. etc." only go so far. More hard data and performance benchmarks are needed.

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2 minutes ago, now said:

I like the thinking here. Again, it seems the task for Elias now is to arrive at greater confidence in when the real window starts. Previous premature announcements of "the Calvary" come to mind to suggest caution. 

"Cavalry"

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