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Arrieta, Matusz, Tillman ETA?

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Major league scouts who watched him in College and the AFL say that he has nothing to prove in the minors and is Major League ready. I have read this several places.

I don't know, I think they say in terms of the quality of his pitches he has big league stuff already but there's still an adjustment process from pitching in college to pitching in the majors. That's why he'll spend most of if not all of this year in the minors.

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You could be right. Then again he has not faced a batter a A+ ball yet. Time will tell.

Actually, 2 1/2 years from college ball to the majors is a pretty fast trip.

Not for a college prospect as advanced and polished as Matusz. If we don't see him in 2010 it will be because he's either injured or has more or less bombed as a prospect.

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Not for a college prospect as advanced and polished as Matusz. If we don't see him in 2010 it will be because he's either injured or has more or less bombed as a prospect.

You could be right but...... it is way too early to be pushing a guy that has not even pitched in the O's minor league system to the majors. There were some people that wanted him to go to Bowie to start. Now the consensus is that he will start at Frederick. The O's are slow to promote they prized prospects.

Matusz' ERA in the AFL was 4.73. Not great. His strikeouts, walks and hit allowed were much better then that. When Matusz sees teams at A+ ball the second and third time, then we will know whether they can hit his stuff.

I for one would rather project 2011 and have him beat that projection then to projection 2010 and have him not meet that expectation.

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You could be right but...... it is way too early to be pushing a guy that has not even pitched in the O's minor league system to the majors. There were some people that wanted him to go to Bowie to start. Now the consensus is that he will start at Frederick. The O's are slow to promote they prized prospects.

Matusz' ERA in the AFL was 4.73. Not great. His strikeouts, walks and hit allowed were much better then that. When Matusz sees teams at A+ ball the second and third time, then we will know whether they can hit his stuff.

I for one would rather project 2011 and have him beat that projection then to projection 2010 and have him not meet that expectation.

To each his own. We'll see.

I'm going to predict that all three, if healthy, will be in the starting rotation come opening day 2010. We will see one or two of them between August and september of this year.

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Arrietta: mid '09

It was mentioned either on here on maybe Tom Davis' show that some in the O's organization think he has a chance to make the OD roster in the 09 season.

Matusz: Mid '10

Tillman: Sept '10

Matusz is very close right now. He should be in Bowie by the end of next year.

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Arrietta: mid '09

Matusz is very close right now. He should be in Bowie by the end of next year.

He should be in Bowie by the All-Star break this year.

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Arrieta- Opening Day 2009

Bergenson- September 2009 Call-Up

Tillman- Opening Day 2010

Matusz- Opening Day 2010

Hernandez- Opening Day 2010

I'm going to go with:

Bergesen: mid-2009

Hernandez: late-2009

Arrieta: late-2009

Matusz: early-2010

Tillman: mid-2010

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Arrietta: mid '09

It was mentioned either on here on maybe Tom Davis' show that some in the O's organization think he has a chance to make the OD roster in the 09 season.

I don't see how this squares with the decision to leave him in Frederick all year last year. I think he'll see the majors in September, but not before.

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I don't see how this squares with the decision to leave him in Frederick all year last year. I think he'll see the majors in September, but not before.

He was left in Frederick because he was going to the Olympics. It was reported somewhere that he would have in Bowie at the break if not for the olympics. I'll see if I can find the article or blog.

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I would start all three at Bowie, maybe giving Matusz a month or so at Frederick to start out. Tillman, despite the incredible K numbers, is not ready for Norfolk, much less Baltimore, due to his control issues. He is arguably the #2 pitching prospect in al of baseball, #1 of those with no MLB experience. The O's cannot afford to rush him. They should make sure he gets his issues sorted out before promoting him.

Of all the pitchers on the MiL roster with decent ceilings, my money is on either Bergesen or Berken to be the first called up, perhaps even on the OD roster.

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I see Tillman and Arrieta in Baltimore by September, and Matusz sometime in 2010, probably like Wieters this year. I'm more curious about Erbe, who was once a top prospect, and Spoone, who's recovering from injury.

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Arrieta- Opening Day 2009

Bergenson- September 2009 Call-Up

Tillman- Opening Day 2010

Matusz- Opening Day 2010

Hernandez- Opening Day 2010

When is the last time any starting rotation had so many new names on opening day? My inclination is that it's fairly rare for a player to break the rotation on opening day anymore. I can't think of the last Oriole that made their debut in the first week of a season. Maybe I'm just nitpicking...

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Bigbird has said a few times that many in the organization expect that Arrieta could move fast and that we could see him up in 09. Can't recall if he hinted at opening day though.

If we bring in 3 starters from among free agents, Japan, non-tenders etc that can hold the fort a little while longer (first 1/3 to 1/2 of the season at least) I would feel a lot better.

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Aaron Fitt from Baseball America is doing a chat on espn.com now. I found this question interesting:

Russ (Cumberland,MD): Orioles fans who has chosen not to go to games for 3 yrs now. Any Pitching prospects in the Minor that can come up within 2-3 years...or any pitchers on that horrid staff that can develop in 2 years?

Aaron Fitt: (2:13 PM ET ) I'm a huge, huge fan of Brian Matusz. He's a physical lefthander with excellent command of four legit average or better pitches -- and you can make a case that three or four of those pitches are above-average. He's also very cerebral, a lot of fun to talk baseball with. I'll be shocked if he's not a very successful big leaguer, and he's going to get there soon. I'd bet that he reaches Baltimore in 2009 sometime.

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Arrieta - OD 2010

Tillman - Somewhere between OD and July 2010

June - August - 2010

The O's are gonna rush these 3. We will see Hernanez, Bergeson, Berkan, Spoone, and Patton, amongst other, before we see these 3. I doubt we see any of them this year unless they completely light up the minors. The only one I really see doing that at this point is Arrieta, so he may be a late choice for a September call-up.

I'm sure they'll want to get Tillman at least 1 more year of minor league ball and I can't blame them. The kids only 20 and just played a full season of AA ball. Give him time. If he doesn't come up until mid-season 2010 - which would give him another half season of AA ball and a full season of AAA ball, he would still only be 22 - and he would have tons of MiL experience.

Also, Matusz will NOT be on the Orioles roster in 2009. If they showed anything with Weiters, they refused not to rush him whatsoever. And the O's have been even more conservative with their pitchers than their hitters. The absolute earliest we see Matusz is OD 2010, with them more likely having him pitch at least a half season in AAA and him being called up sometime after June 2010.

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