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ChaosLex

Looking at the preliminary Top 5 for the 2009 draft

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Looking at Greg's site, I was most impressed with the mechanics of Kyle Gibson. Barring anything drastic happening, durability should never be a concern with a pitcher like him.

If I had to pick a sleeper, he may be it. All that said, he's probably a reach at 5.

I completely agree. I read hes MLB comparison is lackey. Definitely a great sleeper pick

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I'm really excited about the pitching depth in this draft. We're not getting Strasberg, but Crow, Maztek, and White would be up there with our big three. White could even be the best of all of those. I hope we keep drafting well regardless of cost, and loading up on arms.

A rotation of White/Matusz/Tillman/Arrieta/Guthrie sounds pretty formidable.

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I hope we go pitching first (either Matzek, Crow, White, in that order) and then hitting. Having a dominant picthing staff is what I want.

If it plays out where Strasburg, Green, and White are gone, we have a shot at Matzek, Crow, or Ackley. I'd be happy with either of them.

If we wind up with Ackley, we should put him at LF. He doesn't need a cannon to play there.

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I hope we go pitching first (either Matzek, Crow, White, in that order) and then hitting. Having a dominant picthing staff is what I want.

If it plays out where Strasburg, Green, and White are gone, we have a shot at Matzek, Crow, or Ackley. I'd be happy with either of them.

If we wind up with Ackley, we should put him at LF. He doesn't need a cannon to play there.

I imagine the reluctance to switch him back to CF has more to do with keeping his arm healthy than his arm not being strong enough. OFs need more shoulder in their throws, whereas IFs can throw from the ear. That may be why UNC is keeping him at 1B and there are rumblings about him being shifted to 2B. Just conjecture, but I think it's a future health thing, and not a current strength issue.

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I fully admit that I really don't know anything about the minor leaguers apart from what others post, like Stotle.

But from what I've read, I'd love to get Ackley. If he drops because he's at first base, I look at it as a blessing in disguise. If the guy can rake and his bat seems like a pretty sure bet, great. You never know, he could develop more power, or maybe he can eventually shift off first base, which would make him even more valuable. The other options (mostly pitchers) seem like they have much higher bust potential.

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I fully admit that I really don't know anything about the minor leaguers apart from what others post, like Stotle.

But from what I've read, I'd love to get Ackley. If he drops because he's at first base, I look at it as a blessing in disguise. If the guy can rake and his bat seems like a pretty sure bet, great. You never know, he could develop more power, or maybe he can eventually shift off first base, which would make him even more valuable. The other options (mostly pitchers) seem like they have much higher bust potential.

I disagree. Unless Ackley can be moved to 2B, I'd rather take a pitcher.

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I fully admit that I really don't know anything about the minor leaguers apart from what others post, like Stotle.

But from what I've read, I'd love to get Ackley. If he drops because he's at first base, I look at it as a blessing in disguise. If the guy can rake and his bat seems like a pretty sure bet, great. You never know, he could develop more power, or maybe he can eventually shift off first base, which would make him even more valuable. The other options (mostly pitchers) seem like they have much higher bust potential.

One thing to keep in mind is the total package of the draftee ultimatley determines "bust potential". For example, a player that is a plus-defender at SS and has an above-average bat and average power has less "bust potential" than a 1B with an above-average bat and plus-power. The reason is that if the SS doesn't reach his offensive ceiling, he is still providing value with above-average defense at a difficult position. Likewise, if he stumbles defensively, he can be shifted to a multitude of different defensive positions that are a little easier than SS.

Conversely, if the 1B doesn't reach his offensive ceiling, the only value he is bringing to the table is defense at the least valuable position. If he struggles defensively, he is relegated to DH duty or forced to give up value in field (if in the NL).

With Ackley, you're likely looking at (come June) plus-hitting and fringe-average power. Above-average defense at 1B. In order for him to be worth a top 5 pick, you are banking on his hitting remaining well above-average and his power reaching it's "average" ceiling. If he struggles with either of those, then you've used a top 5 pick for a poor man's Sean Casey.

Now, I really like Ackley's bat but I'm not sold on him as a top 5 pick until I see what is to become of his defense in 2009. Maybe this is precautionary and he can shift to 2B or the OF later in the season or as a pro. But if it's 1B or nothing, I think you have to strongly consider letting another team take the gamble.

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Well considering Angelos total lack of desire to pay for top end pitching :rolleyestf: in free agency, I want to lean toward pitching. Of course, I would avoid Crow for the same reason that others have mentioned.

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I think we have to go after pitching unless Green falls in our hands, which I highly doubt because the Pirates could really use a shortstop. I think Crow would be a good pick for us, we have been willing to give our draft picks money, and I think we could work somthing out with Crow. Plus he should get to the majors faster than the other pitchers on the draft board.

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I think we have to go after pitching unless Green falls in our hands, which I highly doubt because the Pirates could really use a shortstop. I think Crow would be a good pick for us, we have been willing to give our draft picks money, and I think we could work somthing out with Crow. Plus he should get to the majors faster than the other pitchers on the draft board.

The Pirates are actually in greater need of front-end pitching. They have several candidates that could be average ML contributors at SS. Mercer by 2010/11.

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The Pirates are actually in greater need of front-end pitching. They have several candidates that could be average ML contributors at SS. Mercer by 2010/11.

The way I see it as of today:

1. Nationals - Strasburg

2. Mariners - White

3. Padres - Green

4. Pirates - Matzek

Of course it is way too soon to be projecting this stuff because a good chunk of their draft status will be how this season goes. That being said, Strasburg seems like a lock, the Nats are not afraid to deal with Boras. The M's are looking pitching I think, but you draft for best available talent esp. when you are that bad, so we'll see there. The Pads can get a SS, they have nothing else in the system there, but I wouldn't be completely shocked to see either SD or SEA go HS and take Davidson (depending on this season for him) since their rebuilding project is just starting. I think the Pirates will be looking for a lot of their young talent to start reaching the majors together and will be looking college pitcher all other considerations aside.

That leaves us with a very tough choice as of today. I'd personally avoid Crow, Gibson like Davidson has to show this season that he can add some muscle before I'm ready to consider him at #5. Ask me again in May ;)

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The way I see it as of today:

1. Nationals - Strasburg

2. Mariners - White

3. Padres - Green

4. Pirates - Matzek

Of course it is way too soon to be projecting this stuff because a good chunk of their draft status will be how this season goes. That being said, Strasburg seems like a lock, the Nats are not afraid to deal with Boras. The M's are looking pitching I think, but you draft for best available talent esp. when you are that bad, so we'll see there. The Pads can get a SS, they have nothing else in the system there, but I wouldn't be completely shocked to see either SD or SEA go HS and take Davidson (depending on this season for him) since their rebuilding project is just starting. I think the Pirates will be looking for a lot of their young talent to start reaching the majors together and will be looking college pitcher all other considerations aside.

That leaves us with a very tough choice as of today. I'd personally avoid Crow, Gibson like Davidson has to show this season that he can add some muscle before I'm ready to consider him at #5. Ask me again in May ;)

Unless Matzek has the quality and the expectations of a rapid rise of a Porcello or Kershaw, I would confidently bet against the Pirates taking a HS pitcher with their pick. They have a window to compete in the next few years with a young, quality offensive core so I agree with the pitcher angle, but not the risk or the development time associated with most HS pitchers. If Crow still has top prospect status, I think he would go well here as would any polished, quality college pitcher.

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If that's the draft scenario, who would we go with? Donovan Tate?

I like Tate a lot, kind of like a Carl Crawford type, but we already took a speed OF like him in Avery. Tate would give us another plus position prospect, but outfield is the least of our needs right now. If in doubt go pitching.

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I like Tate a lot, kind of like a Carl Crawford type, but we already took a speed OF like him in Avery. Tate would give us another plus position prospect, but outfield is the least of our needs right now. If in doubt go pitching.

That leads me to my next question: how does Avery compare to Tate?

Being that Avery's stock last year hadn't been as high as Tate's this year, it appears that Tate's ceiling is that much higher.

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