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BillySmith

Chicago Tribune: O's Have Improved

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Okay. That's what I thought. Notice, I didn't ask if it made you change your mind. Rather, if it made you re-consider your position.

This is telling. I know that when I take a stance and find that posters who I respect (for you, I'm guessing that would be Frobby and Mackus) disagree with me, it's always cause to take a step back and re-examine my conclusions. I don't always change my mind, but sometimes re-testing how I got there yields interesting results.

That you don't have this instinct speaks volumes.

Why should I change my mind? Just because those guys say so?

The fact that you would re-think things, etc tells me that you aren't confident in your opinion to begin with and to me, that's sad.

Cedeno has a chance to be a league average second baseman or SS for little money...Either Murton or veal could be decent role players who are cheap.

Now, I am not sold on any of those guys to where I would automatically assume good things but the potential for them to at least be cheap role players and that at least has value.

Gallagher is still very young...When he went to Oakland, he showed a very good K rate. The walk rate was high and the HR rate was a little high...But i think he will end up improving on that...He did it at a young age and switched leagues, so it is understandable that there would be an adjustment period...His collective BABIP was 321, so he was a little unlucky. His FIP last year was 4.48, which wasn't much different than what Guthrie's was and it was around the same as Floyd.

Ceda's stats, when he was moved back to the pen, were excellent.

I really don't see how the value of the package is any less now than it was and that was mackus' point...I don't see how he has a leg to stand on especially since Mackus has talked about how much BRob's value is down...So, to me he is being very inconsistent and I am supposed to re-think my opinion just because he disagrees?

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LOL...Why one earth should I care if people disagree with me?

People like Rshack, i literally have extreme hatred for...Why would I care if people like that disagree with me?

Well, I don't hate you SG. I actually think you're right about some stuff.

In fact, the main issue I have is that you simply refuse to do any reality-testing whatsoever.

Instead, you blindly insist that your own fantasy-judgments are right, no matter what.

For example:

So, to say I am guessing there is pretty absurd.

[rumor-based stuff deleted]

These are things that either have happened or common sense tells you that they would happen.

SG, your entire boast about the alledged-superiority of your own GM-judgment is based on equating 2 very different things:

  • Your rumor-based fantasies about what Real GM's are thinking-and-doing.
  • What Real GM's are actually thinking-and-doing.

Now, if your fantasies were accurate, then it's only reasonable to expect that you would have, at some point, called a trade correctly.

Whether you liked that trade or not is 100% beside the point.

The point is that, if your fantasies about what Real GM's were doing were accurate, you would have some kind of track record of being accurate.

Yet in 60,000 posts you, AFAIK, you've never called a trade correctly. Not even once.

I'm not saying that accurate rumor-based GM-fantasies would give you a .300 batting average.

I'm not even saying that they'd have you hitting above the Mendoza line.

But I am saying that, if your GM-fantasies were accurate, you'd be hitting at least .000016.

But you're not. You're batting zero. So, evidently, the voices in your head are wrong.

Why you can't see this is beyond me.

Edited by rshackelford

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Why should I change my mind? Just because those guys say so?

The fact that you would re-think things, etc tells me that you aren't confident in your opinion to begin with and to me, that's sad.

Cedeno has a chance to be a league average second baseman or SS for little money...Either Murton or veal could be decent role players who are cheap.

Now, I am not sold on any of those guys to where I would automatically assume good things but the potential for them to at least be cheap role players and that at least has value.

Gallagher is still very young...When he went to Oakland, he showed a very good K rate. The walk rate was high and the HR rate was a little high...But i think he will end up improving on that...He did it at a young age and switched leagues, so it is understandable that there would be an adjustment period...His collective BABIP was 321, so he was a little unlucky. His FIP last year was 4.48, which wasn't much different than what Guthrie's was and it was around the same as Floyd.

Ceda's stats, when he was moved back to the pen, were excellent.

I really don't see how the value of the package is any less now than it was and that was mackus' point...I don't see how he has a leg to stand on especially since Mackus has talked about how much BRob's value is down...So, to me he is being very inconsistent and I am supposed to re-think my opinion just because he disagrees?

I'm sure it does tell you this. Which also speaks volumes.

BTW, how's your reading comprehension? I specifically stated that I didn't mean "changing your mind."

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I'm sure it does tell you this. Which also speaks volumes.

BTW, how's your reading comprehension? I specifically stated that I didn't mean "changing your mind."

The part that you bolded said RE-THINK...So, hows your reading comprehension?

BTW, not that surprising that you dodged the actual baseball part of the post...but that is to be expected.

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I really don't see how the value of the package is any less now than it was and that was mackus' point...I don't see how he has a leg to stand on especially since Mackus has talked about how much BRob's value is down...So, to me he is being very inconsistent and I am supposed to re-think my opinion just because he disagrees?
You missed my point.

My point was that I am glad we didn't pull the trigger on that trade in retrospect. The value at the time was fair, I still think that. But these guys as a group haven't inspired me over the last year to think that they are more likely to hit their ceilings or close to it and be MLB contributors. Cedeno might be able to be a starter, but probably an average at best one, and even that is still uncertain. Same for Murton. Being solid bench players does have value, but that wasn't what I was hoping these guys would become when we almost acquired them.

Gallagher is still someone I think has a bright future, but his value isn't as high as it was last February since he struggled a bit in his MLB debut.

Roberts' value certainly has gone down too, and I'm not trying to determine whether or not we should make that identical trade right now if it were a possibility. I'm just pointing out that almost all of the guys we were supposedly getting in the Roberts deal have slipped in value over the last year, so much so that I am now happy that we didn't make a trade that I felt was fair at the time and would have pulled the trigger on.

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The part that you bolded said RE-THINK...So, hows your reading comprehension?

BTW, not that surprising that you dodged the actual baseball part of the post...but that is to be expected.

Re-think: go through the process of thinking. I didn't say "re-conclude". Do you not know what re-think means? Is thinking not a process to you, but a product?

I wasn't talking about the baseball part in the prior part of the thread, so I assumed it wasn't addressed to me.

I was talking about how one makes decisions based on incomplete information: i.e., whether or not, knowing that your opinion is necessarily based on incomplete information and subjective valuation, having other people you respect come to a different conclusion was reason enough to re-evaluate your own.

You made your answer clear. But just so you know, very smart, very confident people re-assess their conclusions pretty constantly (the scientific method being what it is). In fact, I'd argue it's a hallmark of confidence.

As for the baseball stuff: Ceda is a good prospect, but he's a reliever, so there's limited value. Gallagher may be a back-end of the rotation starter (and sometime soon) so he's a good-but-not-great value (but fairly low-risk for a pitcher). I've always thought Cedeno was a role player. And Veal I was never sold on.

Eh. I can see where you come from, and probably leaned toward agreeing with you at this point last year (fearing the situation we have in front of us now.) That said, I can't look back on it and say that we were wrong to go the route we did.

Time hasn't been kind to that deal. And AM wasn't guessing as to what those prospects would become: basically, he thought two years + two picks of B-Rob were more valuable than a (possible) high-leverage reliever, a back end starter, and possible UTI, and a minor league pitching depth.

Tough to say he's wrong.

Edited by Lucky Jim

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The fact that you would re-think things, etc tells me that you aren't confident in your opinion to begin with and to me, that's sad.

This is the W philosophy.

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Changing positions and re-thinking your positions aren't even close to being the same things.

That's very true. The act of re-examining positions is dependent on two things:

1. the quality of the argument

2. the personality of the one receiving the argument

I think in this one, it's definitely a combination of both.

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Re-think: go through the process of thinking. I didn't say "re-conclude". Do you not know what re-think means? Is thinking not a process to you, but a product?

Being rational implies both a willingness to re-think and a willingness to re-conclude (or not) based on what the re-thinking shows.

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Okay. That's what I thought. Notice, I didn't ask if it made you change your mind. Rather, if it made you re-consider your position.

This is telling. I know that when I take a stance and find that posters who I respect (for you, I'm guessing that would be Frobby and Mackus) disagree with me, it's always cause to take a step back and re-examine my conclusions. I don't always change my mind, but sometimes re-testing how I got there yields interesting results.

That you don't have this instinct speaks volumes.

Personally, I don't mind that SG is so sure of the positions he takes. His philosophy is pretty consistent. To the extent we disagree, most often it is because he assumes certain transactions are possible or easy to do. I've changed my mind plenty of times based on SG's arguments, put it that way.

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Personally, I don't mind that SG is so sure of the positions he takes. His philosophy is pretty consistent. To the extent we disagree, most often it is because he assumes certain transactions are possible or easy to do. I've changed my mind plenty of times based on SG's arguments, put it that way.

It does, however, make arguing with him pretty unproductive.

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Shack, please edit so you don't get ousted again.

I did not comment about the merits of that philosophy. I just observed that that's what it is.

Some folks think it's the right one. Last I heard it was 27%. Majority/minority opinion does not determine correctness.

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Being rational implies both a willingness to re-think and a willingness to re-conclude (or not) based on what the re-thinking shows.

Just goes to show you how much us mortals are at a disadvantage. Life is much easier when you are always right the first time. Even when it appears things did not work out the way you predict is is because someone else did something so stupid it messed up your original position. :scratchchinhmm:

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