Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Sports Guy

Mixed feelings about the offseason thus far

Recommended Posts

I think you mean "Extending Huff right now would be a monsterous mistake." If so, I'd clarify so there is no confusion later.

Signing Huff to a 2/20 or 3/25-27 extension could end up being a GREAT move by August of this year. It could also end up being an awful move. That is why waiting is the right move at the moment. I agree it is premature at this point to extend him, but it might not always be the wrong thing to do.

Come on bud, you should be able to speak Sports Guy-ese by now, don't you think?

"This is a complete joke"

"This post demonstrates that you know nothing about baseball"

"Thanks for putting words in my mouth"

"What a horrific idea"

You just have to take some of the drama and vitriol out of it and you can pretty much get his point. I'll say this for him : the man voices his opinion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think you mean "Extending Huff right now would be a monsterous mistake." If so, I'd clarify so there is no confusion later.

Signing Huff to a 2/20 or 3/25-27 extension could end up being a GREAT move by August of this year. It could also end up being an awful move. That is why waiting is the right move at the moment. I agree it is premature at this point to extend him, but it might not always be the wrong thing to do.

No, it will always be a monsterous mistake.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I really hope this is hyperbole.

Clearly, there should be circumstances where we would extend Roberts. If he agreed to stay here for 3/30 or less for 2010-2012, we'd have to be insane to say no.

As Jim stated earlier, the pendulum is swinging heavily in the other direction re: value of prospects vs mid-age, good-but-not-great players. It appears to be swinging too far to me. Roberts provides a clear amount of value for 2010-2012. Two draft picks provide a possibility of value, but also a possibility of nothing.

If Roberts would extend for a reasonable amount/# of years and the only other options are getting two picks OR trading him for 60-80 cents on the dollar, I'd extend him in a heartbeat. Now, if he can be traded for a decent return, that should be the first option. I bet he can't because of that pendulum thingy. :D

Nope....Much rather have the draft picks than BRob for another 3-4 years after 2009.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Roberts is worth the 4/40 offered. Anything beyond that number means exit stage left.

Huff could be this teams DH & 4 or 5 hitter for another 3-4 years. I would wait until mid season to be sure last season wasn't a fluke. If it wasn't I see no reason not to give him another 2-3 w/ a option. Who else is going to bat clean up on this team??? Who do we have close in the minors that can hit 30 HR??? Answer No one!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Roberts is worth the 4/40 offered. Anything beyond that number means exit stage left.

Nobody has said he has been offered 4 years, have they? I'd heard he had been offered an extension at about $10 mm/season but the parties were significantly apart on dollars and years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Wildcard said to sign or trade him now, so that idea of offering him arbitration next year isn't an option in the scenario we are discussing.

Stepping back from what Wildcard said, though, there's nothing wrong with giving Huff arbitration if he has a good season. If he takes it, we have a productive player for one more season without a long term commitment. If he walks, we get draft picks.

Unless someone is willing to offer a real prospect for him, keeping Huff seems like the only reasonable move.

Edited by Three Run Homer
typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Stepping back from what Wildcard said, though, there's nothing wrong with giving Huff arbitration if he has a good season. If he takes it, we have a productive player for one more season without a long term commitment. If he walks, we get draft picks.

Unless someone is willing to offer a real prospect for him, keeping Huff seems like the only reasonable move.

If Huff has an 850ish OPS for the season, then I am fine with arbitration...but not right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Nope....Much rather have the draft picks than BRob for another 3-4 years after 2009.

Is this because you think BRob's production will decline seriously in the next 3 to 4 years? It strikes me that Roberts may be the kind of player who is able to remain productive well into his 30s--most of his game is based on speed and smarts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Is this because you think BRob's production will decline seriously in the next 3 to 4 years? It strikes me that Roberts may be the kind of player who is able to remain productive well into his 30s--most of his game is based on speed and smarts.

Well, speed usually declines at around his age...Second baseman generally really decline in their early 30s.

As his power goes, they will challenge him more and he will get less walks.

I see him being an AS level guy this year...I see him being slightly above average in 2010...Average at best in 2011 and below average after that.

We will be signing him from 2010-2013 or so...So, you can see why I think a big time extension is a terrible idea.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Stepping back from what Wildcard said, though, there's nothing wrong with giving Huff arbitration if he has a good season. If he takes it, we have a productive player for one more season without a long term commitment. If he walks, we get draft picks.

Unless someone is willing to offer a real prospect for him, keeping Huff seems like the only reasonable move.

If the Indians wanted to trade Lonnie Chisenhall and Curtis Haley for Huff, would you do it? Say they traded Garko to someone else and needed a 1B and wanted Huff. Chisenhall is a 29th pick in last years draft. That is pretty close to a sandwich pick. And Haley is a 2nd rounder, 76th pick. Is it a good deal for the O's. What is the ETA on these to guys producing at the level that Huff is producing at now in the majors?

Note: Forget about if it is legal under the rules. This is a value question.

Edited by wildcard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well, speed usually declines at around his age...Second baseman generally really decline in their early 30s.

As his power goes, they will challenge him more and he will get less walks.

I see him being an AS level guy this year...I see him being slightly above average in 2010...Average at best in 2011 and below average after that.

We will be signing him from 2010-2013 or so...So, you can see why I think a big time extension is a terrible idea.

Yeah, 2013 he will be almost DFA worthy.

As said in the other thread, I think there is some worth in extending him, but not much. If we can get draft picks for him, I think it is a push in either direction. Those draft picks are unlikely to be starter worthy in 4 years, but they might be. It would certainly be more useful than getting Pie, Cedeno, and Hill . . . who we know will have no role with the team in three years.

But, yeah, I prefer him dealt for good high projection prospects in single A. I think anything about that, we will be sacrificing either with projectability or potential. Bet on your talent evaluators to find overlooked value. Use the money saved on Roberts to invest in the draft or international signings.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I really hope this is hyperbole.

Clearly, there should be circumstances where we would extend Roberts. If he agreed to stay here for 3/30 or less for 2010-2012, we'd have to be insane to say no.

As Jim stated earlier, the pendulum is swinging heavily in the other direction re: value of prospects vs mid-age, good-but-not-great players. It appears to be swinging too far to me. Roberts provides a clear amount of value for 2010-2012. Two draft picks provide a possibility of value, but also a possibility of nothing.

If Roberts would extend for a reasonable amount/# of years and the only other options are getting two picks OR trading him for 60-80 cents on the dollar, I'd extend him in a heartbeat. Now, if he can be traded for a decent return, that should be the first option. I bet he can't because of that pendulum thingy. :D

In this economy, offering Roberts $10 million per year is way too much. It would have been a reasonable offer last year but look around you, times have changed. If Brob inks for 3/30, and the economy doesn't improve significantly, we'll be looking at a "bad" contract especially if he doesn't age well. We will have a better sense of this when O. Hudson eventually signs but it sure doesn't look like he will get anything close to $10 mil per.

It will be interesting to see how this market affects young players offered contract extensions (like Markakis) as guys like Hudson, Abreu and Garland have to settle for short-term deals for much, much less than they could have imagined. We may see players more interested in locking in and ensuring that they get paid even if it isn't what they would have made circa 2007.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yeah, 2013 he will be almost DFA worthy.

That's an awfully bold prediction. He'll be what, 35?

I think BRob may be below average for a starting 2B at age 35, but DFA-worthy? Nah. He'll probably be a .270/.340/.400 type hitter who can still steal you 15-20 bases.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That's an awfully bold prediction. He'll be what, 35?

I think BRob may be below average for a starting 2B at age 35, but DFA-worthy? Nah. He'll probably be a .270/.340/.400 type hitter who can still steal you 15-20 bases.

I am seeing a player more like 260/320/360 with poor defense and average speed. His contact rate should decrease along with his gap power, which will enable pitchers to go at him a bit more directly . . . lowering his walk rate. Historically, almost to a fault, a second baseman is useless at age 35. Yes, second basemen fall apart.

I mean it. If he does not have a 10MM number to his name that year, he will see sparse time in the majors and primarily because folks will remember what he use to be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"If we're playing baseball in October, they're going to be happy. If you set out to try to please your fans in November, December and January, you're going to end up wondering what went wrong. " - Theo Epstein

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






×
×
  • Create New...