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Skywalker76

Your current top 5

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I pretty much agree w/ most of the top 5 picks up here but I still feel as though Finan doesnt get enough recognition. He is definitely a dependable player.

My top 5, not necessarily in this order:

Liz

Finan

Olson

Hoey

Tripp

(Rowell has been a bit disappointing)

Finan? Really?

It's gotta go:

1) Rowell - Upside is unbelievable. He's playing way up right now and will catch up with time.

2) Olsen - He showed guts in his two pro starts and has been untouchable since returning to Norfolk

3) Liz - This guy has been silly this year. He's a little older then you'd like, but he's progressed steadily. Guthrie is a 28-year-old rookie. Liz can do it at 24.

4) Snyder - At one time he looked like an absolute bust, but this year he's gotten back on track after the injury. Maybe the move from out behind the plate did the trick.

5) Erbe - I'm going to stand by him until he quits the game. His stuff is sick, but his fastball is too straight by reports I've read. He's young enough to still make a major impact at some point. Maybe moe his release point a bit and let him focus on the fastball with another pitch and he could turn out to be the dominant closer we are looking for. I'm not going to dismiss a 20-year-old that can put it in the upper 90's consistently.

In alphabetical order by last name, the next 15 would consist of Ryan Adams, Matt Angle, Tim Bascom, Pedro Beato, Brad Bergesen, Kraig Binnick, Wally Crancer, Blake Davis, Tyler Henson, David Hernandez, James Hoey, Tyler Kolodny, Nolan Reimold, Chorye Spoone, Brandon Tripp and Chris Vinyard

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Finan? Really?

It's gotta go:

1) Rowell - Upside is unbelievable. He's playing way up right now and will catch up with time.

2) Olsen - He showed guts in his two pro starts and has been untouchable since returning to Norfolk

3) Liz - This guy has been silly this year. He's a little older then you'd like, but he's progressed steadily. Guthrie is a 28-year-old rookie. Liz can do it at 24.

4) Snyder - At one time he looked like an absolute bust, but this year he's gotten back on track after the injury. Maybe the move from out behind the plate did the trick.

5) Erbe - I'm going to stand by him until he quits the game. His stuff is sick, but his fastball is too straight by reports I've read. He's young enough to still make a major impact at some point. Maybe moe his release point a bit and let him focus on the fastball with another pitch and he could turn out to be the dominant closer we are looking for. I'm not going to dismiss a 20-year-old that can put it in the upper 90's consistently.

In alphabetical order by last name, the next 15 would consist of Ryan Adams, Matt Angle, Tim Bascom, Pedro Beato, Brad Bergesen, Kraig Binnick, Wally Crancer, Blake Davis, Tyler Henson, David Hernandez, James Hoey, Tyler Kolodny, Nolan Reimold, Chorye Spoone, Brandon Tripp and Chris Vinyard

My list is similar:

1. Rowell

2. Olson

3. Liz

4. Erbe

5. Beato

Replacing Binnick, Crancer and Kolodny in the top 20 with Britton, McCrory, Pope.

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5) Erbe - I'm going to stand by him until he quits the game. His stuff is sick, but his fastball is too straight by reports I've read. He's young enough to still make a major impact at some point. Maybe moe his release point a bit and let him focus on the fastball with another pitch and he could turn out to be the dominant closer we are looking for. I'm not going to dismiss a 20-year-old that can put it in the upper 90's consistently.

Than its even better he is 19 until Christmas. :)

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I'm just going to go ahead and be an optimist and include Wieters and Arrieta.

1. Matt Wieters - he'll be more polished than Rowell right away and produce more in the short term.

2. Billy Rowell - will eventually be the biggest producer of the group in the long term

3. Garrett Olson - he's ready to be a #3 starter now, getting the most out of his ability

4. Radhames Liz - really progressing as a starter with nasty stuff, can he really stay a starter?

5. Nolan Reimold - I too believe in this guy, starting LF by July '08? Can he stay healthy?

Hard to stop at just five...The next 15?

6. Jim Hoey - outstanding season, nasty stuff make him a solid set-up option in '08

7. Brandon Erbe - struggles this year have him slipping just a bit, but he'll be back in top 3 by end of '08

8. Brandon Tripp - having a solid breakout season, but not ready to put him in top 5 just yet

9. Brad Bergesen - recent minor struggles aside, he's on the rise rapidly

10. Brandon Snyder - he's back on track, probably back in top 5 mid '08 depending what position he plays

11. Chorye Spoone - command still needs to improve, but he's making definite strides

12. Bob McCrory - he's been solid, occasionally dominant, for the most part...another guy who has to be considered for BP in '08 if he can improve command (35 K/25 BB in 35 IP)

13. Chris Vinyard - has not been mashing as much recently, but you have to like his power potential and production

14. Tim Bascom - gotta like what we see so far from my fellow UCF alum! I may have him a little low right now.

15. Tyler Kolodny - only knock may be the 11 errors at 3B, but you have to love the value of this pick so far. The kid mashes!

16. Jake Arrieta - if he works out the kinks in his delivery he moves up quickly with power stuff

17. Miguel Abreu - not much plate discipline, but the bat has juice and a solid overall prospect

18. Dave Hernandez - slipped a little (tiring?), but still has shown he can be dominant power pitcher

19. Pedro Beato - slipped quite a bit in rankings, but potential is there to be top 5 again end of '08

20. Tyler Henson - very toolsy, hitting for avg. and some power, so's and errors are a little high right now but I really like this kid's upside. He was my sleeper pick in mid June and I can finally say I got one right for a change.:D

Just outside the top 20 (not in any order): Zach Britton, Ryan Adams, Keiron Pope, Blake Davis, Matt Angle, Luis Hernandez, James Johnson, Hank Williamson, Paco Figueroa, and Chad Thall.

Early Potential: Wally Crancer, Jordan Wolf, Joe Mahoney, Franklin Gonzalez, Nick Ray, Scott Mueller, Shane Mathews, Kraig Binick, Justin Moore, Paul Chmiel, Tyrone Hambly (will he ever get to play?), Malcolm Crowley, Jacob Julius, Brian Parker, John Marriotti, Kyle Touchatt, Elvin Polanco, Rodolfo Cardona, Luis Noel, Jake Smith, Stephen Procner and Dan Heller.

Still some hope for: Ryan Keefer, Brian Finch, Freddy Deza, Mark Fleisher, Ryan Finan, Arturo Rivas, Jason Berken, Dan Figueroa, Kyle Schmidt, Jim Miller, Pedro Florimon (has there been a bigger disappointment?), Brent Allar, Jeff Moore, Wilfredo Perez, Brett Bordes, Luis Lebron, Jed Stephen, Zach Jevne and Ryan Stadanlick.

Fading quickly: Val Majewski, Jeff Fiorentino, Beau Hale, Sean Tracey, Bryan Bass, Brandon Sing, Dave Haehnel, Rommie Lewis, Reid Hamblet, Blake Owen and Josh Tamba.

Okay, so I went a little far...sorry, I was bored. :D Overall, I really like the growth of the system. Many at the top have struggled, but the potential is outstanding. We certainly can see a lot more depth in mid-level prospects than I can ever remember.

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Jammer, I always enjoy your input on this side of the board. Just a couple of nitpicks. I'm surprised you have Beato & Henson so low, particularly Henson. If anyone has had a breakout season, it's this guy and Tripp. In a pitcher's park, he's showing a little power/speed potential at SS. He's only 19 and was considered the best, or one of the best pure athletes that we drafted last year. I liked Vinyard last year but he's disappointed this year. No way I can see ranking Vinyard at 13 and Henson at 19. I'd reverse them and have Henson knocking on the door of the top 10. Let's also remember that Beato is just 20, and although he's been a bit disappointing, I'd have to say that he's still more of a prospect than the more polished but less talented (from what I've read) Brad Bergesen. For my money, I like Spoone better than almost any of the A ball pitchers, based on age, physique, and stuff. The command is coming slowly but surely.

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1- Olson

2- Liz

3- Hoey

4- Rowell

5- Reimold

Ceiling aside, #1 pick aside, and age aside, I have a hard time putting a guy that's only OK in A-ball ahead of three guys that have been very good in the upper minors and are more certain to amount to something in MLB (not to mention do it much sooner).

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1- Olson

2- Liz

3- Hoey

4- Rowell

5- Reimold

Ceiling aside, #1 pick aside, and age aside, I have a hard time putting a guy that's only OK in A-ball ahead of three guys that have been very good in the upper minors and are more certain to amount to something in MLB (not to mention do it much sooner).

But many publications put guys who have never even played a day of professional baseball as #1 prospects or top tens ahead of guys who are in AAA. You yourself, have done this sort of thing. What's the difference here?

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Ceiling and age aside? How can you just poo poo those things?

Isn't that basically how most prospect lists are done?

:confused::confused:

I'm not poo pooing anything.

I'm saying the guys I put ahead of him are having enough sustained success at much higher levels, and showing high enough probabilities of having bigleague careers, to outweigh Rowell's advantages in age and ceiling.

It's basic risk/reward theory. Rowell's reward element has stayed the same but his risk element has gone up. These three other guys have bumped up their reward element a bit, while also lowering their risk element. Put it all together and the final list needs to be reshuffled from what it was preseason.

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I'm not poo pooing anything.

I'm saying the guys I put ahead of him are having enough sustained success at much higher levels, and showing high enough probabilities of having bigleague careers, to outweigh Rowell's advantages in age and ceiling.

It's basic risk/reward theory. Rowell's reward element has stayed the same but his risk element has gone up. These three other guys have bumped up their reward element a bit, while also lowering their risk element. Put it all together and the final list needs to be reshuffled from what it was preseason.

I think it has to be a mix between stats and ceiling. This is why Olsen is high on pretty much everybody's list. His ceiling is "just" a 3rd starter but his stats at AAA are outstanding.

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I'm just going to go ahead and be an optimist and include Wieters and Arrieta.

1. Matt Wieters - he'll be more polished than Rowell right away and produce more in the short term.

2. Billy Rowell - will eventually be the biggest producer of the group in the long term

3. Garrett Olson - he's ready to be a #3 starter now, getting the most out of his ability

4. Radhames Liz - really progressing as a starter with nasty stuff, can he really stay a starter?

5. Nolan Reimold - I too believe in this guy, starting LF by July '08? Can he stay healthy?

Hard to stop at just five...The next 15?

6. Jim Hoey - outstanding season, nasty stuff make him a solid set-up option in '08

7. Brandon Erbe - struggles this year have him slipping just a bit, but he'll be back in top 3 by end of '08

8. Brandon Tripp - having a solid breakout season, but not ready to put him in top 5 just yet

9. Brad Bergesen - recent minor struggles aside, he's on the rise rapidly

10. Brandon Snyder - he's back on track, probably back in top 5 mid '08 depending what position he plays

11. Chorye Spoone - command still needs to improve, but he's making definite strides

12. Bob McCrory - he's been solid, occasionally dominant, for the most part...another guy who has to be considered for BP in '08 if he can improve command (35 K/25 BB in 35 IP)

13. Chris Vinyard - has not been mashing as much recently, but you have to like his power potential and production

14. Tim Bascom - gotta like what we see so far from my fellow UCF alum! I may have him a little low right now.

15. Tyler Kolodny - only knock may be the 11 errors at 3B, but you have to love the value of this pick so far. The kid mashes!

16. Jake Arrieta - if he works out the kinks in his delivery he moves up quickly with power stuff

17. Miguel Abreu - not much plate discipline, but the bat has juice and a solid overall prospect

18. Dave Hernandez - slipped a little (tiring?), but still has shown he can be dominant power pitcher

19. Pedro Beato - slipped quite a bit in rankings, but potential is there to be top 5 again end of '08

20. Tyler Henson - very toolsy, hitting for avg. and some power, so's and errors are a little high right now but I really like this kid's upside. He was my sleeper pick in mid June and I can finally say I got one right for a change.:D

Just outside the top 20 (not in any order): Zach Britton, Ryan Adams, Keiron Pope, Blake Davis, Matt Angle, Luis Hernandez, James Johnson, Hank Williamson, Paco Figueroa, and Chad Thall.

Early Potential: Wally Crancer, Jordan Wolf, Joe Mahoney, Franklin Gonzalez, Nick Ray, Scott Mueller, Shane Mathews, Kraig Binick, Justin Moore, Paul Chmiel, Tyrone Hambly (will he ever get to play?), Malcolm Crowley, Jacob Julius, Brian Parker, John Marriotti, Kyle Touchatt, Elvin Polanco, Rodolfo Cardona, Luis Noel, Jake Smith, Stephen Procner and Dan Heller.

Still some hope for: Ryan Keefer, Brian Finch, Freddy Deza, Mark Fleisher, Ryan Finan, Arturo Rivas, Jason Berken, Dan Figueroa, Kyle Schmidt, Jim Miller, Pedro Florimon (has there been a bigger disappointment?), Brent Allar, Jeff Moore, Wilfredo Perez, Brett Bordes, Luis Lebron, Jed Stephen, Zach Jevne and Ryan Stadanlick.

Fading quickly: Val Majewski, Jeff Fiorentino, Beau Hale, Sean Tracey, Bryan Bass, Brandon Sing, Dave Haehnel, Rommie Lewis, Reid Hamblet, Blake Owen and Josh Tamba.

Okay, so I went a little far...sorry, I was bored. :D Overall, I really like the growth of the system. Many at the top have struggled, but the potential is outstanding. We certainly can see a lot more depth in mid-level prospects than I can ever remember.

I see you put in alot of time into it. So I will give a shot.

1)Olson -I pretty much think he should already be pitching for the Orioles!!

2)Liz -Starting to really put it together

3)Rowell -I think he has the best upside of all our hitters

4)Reimold-If he can just stay healthy, who knows how good he can be.

5)Hoey- Getting closer to the big show!!

And now my next 10:

6)Erbe -Even though he has had a rough 2007, age is a factor

7)Synder -He has finally starting to show his potential

8)Spoone -Having a great year in Frederick, opposing hitter are hitting .198

9)Tripp -Having a solid season

10)McCrory -Had a great season in Freserick and continued on with Bowie

11)Beato -Having a good season but not dominating

12)Vineyard -Power potential is there, just needs to be more consistent

13)Bascom -Having a great start at Delmarva

14)Hernandez -If we can get him to pitch like he did in April! Misses bats

though. Lead the Carolinas with 123 k's

15)Bergesen - Was dominating @ SAL but has struggle in Frederick.

His GO/AO is just outstanding 2.42

I left off Weiters and Arrieta because they are not offically in the Orioles organization. I also left off Tyler Kolodny because of the league in competing in. It's a wait and see. Abreu, Finan, and Hensen would be in my Top 20

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Jammer, I always enjoy your input on this side of the board. Just a couple of nitpicks. I'm surprised you have Beato & Henson so low, particularly Henson. If anyone has had a breakout season, it's this guy and Tripp. In a pitcher's park, he's showing a little power/speed potential at SS. He's only 19 and was considered the best, or one of the best pure athletes that we drafted last year. I liked Vinyard last year but he's disappointed this year. No way I can see ranking Vinyard at 13 and Henson at 19. I'd reverse them and have Henson knocking on the door of the top 10. Let's also remember that Beato is just 20, and although he's been a bit disappointing, I'd have to say that he's still more of a prospect than the more polished but less talented (from what I've read) Brad Bergesen. For my money, I like Spoone better than almost any of the A ball pitchers, based on age, physique, and stuff. The command is coming slowly but surely.

RZ, I don't disagree on Henson. In retrospect, I probably did rank him a little low. I like the kid a lot and if he continues I'll rank him a little closer to the top 10 at the end of the season. Right now, with Florimon and Adams' current struggles in mind, I was a little conservative about putting too much weight into six weeks of SS-A ball. Erbe has shown in the past he has the ability to dominate until he tires later in the season. Assuming he keeps progressing and gaining stamina in a natural progression, I like his upside/tools better than Spoone. For me, Spoone still has to show more consistent command to prove he profiles more than a long relief/back of the rotation starter. Bergesen showed very good command the first half at Delmarva and I think he'll straighten out. Vinyard may possibly move down some, but he's just as likely to get hot again with some adjustments.

Overall, I tend to give more weight to track record and tools than shorter term results. There's several guys like Beato, Adams, Henson, Erbe, Bergesen, Spoone, etc.. that could easily move up with a hot month of August. At the moment, there really isn't a lot of separation after Hoey, but the system is stronger from #7-30 than I have ever seen.

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