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melankfo

Tejada is back and killing us again!

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Uh, yeah. It is not rocket science that you put your worst fielder in LF. It has been done historically in baseball for years and years. Why do you think Manny plays LF?Why do you think the Orioles used to put Mickey Tettleton who was primarily a catcher out there (moved him). Why do you think Yogi Berra also used to play LF (another catcher moved there). Why do you think Boog Powell played there when he first came up and the Orioles had Jim Gentile at 1b? Why do you think Jack Cust has been put there when he is not a DH? Your outfielder with the least range plays LF.This is not a novel concept at all if you know even the basic game of MLB and how it is played.

Yeah and how did those things work out?

If the Sox were losing games on a regular basis they wouldn't turn a blind eye to it like they do now.

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Even though they are having terrible years, the offensive and defensive conributions of Gibbons/Payton in LF and Tejada at SS are still considerably better than the combined offensive and defensive contributions of Tejada in LF and Fahey/Hernandez at SS.

That has been pointed out repeatedly.

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How so? His main value is as a hitter anyway. If another team wants to acquire him in a trade they already know he can play shortstop anyway. I actually think it could enhance his value as he could be viewed as being multi-dimensional and not locked in at one position. I really think that Gibbons and to a certain extent Peyton are already a hole in the lineup. Everyday I see posters wanting both of them gone, so what big difference would it be to substitute Hernandez at their spot (9th) in the lineup. Gibbons is captain popup and Peyton just a singles hitter anyway? It is only a small difference that I think the defensive upgrade would probably compensate for anyway. That is my argument and I am sticking to it.:)

His value as a hitter is ELEVATED by his position as a SS. How is that not registering?

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Sabermetrics has its place in baseball. However giving over every decision is nonsense. Its like your all trying to create your own bible code. Seeing numbers everywhere in the matrics.

It has led to an over emphasis on lefty righty matchups late in the game instead of depending on who has the hot hand. We could use a guy like Tippy Martinez in the pen who can get a save going 3 innings.

It also has led to a decreased value of defence.

Things go in cycles. Someday managers will start bucking the trends and some genius will write a book about how he can win despite the numbers.

Rambling? Yes.

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Uh, yeah. It is not rocket science that you put your worst fielder in LF. It has been done historically in baseball for years and years. Why do you think Manny plays LF?Why do you think the Orioles used to put Mickey Tettleton who was primarily a catcher out there (moved him). Why do you think Yogi Berra also used to play LF (another catcher moved there). Why do you think Boog Powell played there when he first came up and the Orioles had Jim Gentile at 1b? Why do you think Jack Cust has been put there when he is not a DH? Your outfielder with the least range plays LF.This is not a novel concept at all if you know even the basic game of MLB and how it is played. If this is the silliest thing you have ever heard you need to hear more things, or read or talk to people who know the game better period before acting like you do.

Manny plays left field because David Ortiz is the DH. Any other team, Manny doesn't even own a glove.

You are also ignoring the other point: none of them played left field full-time for any length of time. Boog moved to first at the first opportunity. Yogi was at the end of his career. Tettleton only played one game in the outfield with the Orioles, and the three years he played there regularly were 1993-1995, again the end of his career. Cust is such a quality outfielder that he's in his fifth (at least) organization, because no one can find a position he can play worth carrying his bat.

So, just randomly moving someone to the outfielder that 1) has never played and 2) doesn't WANT to play (in Tejada's case) is probably a bad idea.

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Let me just deal with the offensive side of the equation for a minute. According to the Runs Created formula, Miguel Tejada has created 44.3 runs in 79 games this year. Over 162 games that would be 90.2 runs.

Since we have very small sample sizes for Hernandez and Fahey for 2007, let's just use Fahey for 2006, when he created 24.6 runs in 91 games. Over 162 games over a full season that would be 43.8 runs created, probably a bit more since Fahey's 91 games included a lot of partial games where he didn't start.

From that, I'd conclude that the offensive difference between Tejada and his replacements is somewhere in the ballpark of 35-45 runs over a full season, or maybe .25 runs/game, plus or minus .05.

On the defensive side, Baseball Prospectus has Tejada's Rate at 99, meaning his defense allows one extra run to score every 100 games compared to the average shortstop. The greatest defensive SS of all time, Ozzie Smith, had a career Rate of 111, and a career best of 118. So even if you assumed that Fahey/Hernandez were equal to that (and they clearly are not), over 162 games they would save you maybe 18-25 runs over Tejada, or .13 runs/game, plus or minus .03.

Conclusion? The .25 extra runs of offense outweighs the .13 runs he loses on defense, and that's even assuming that Fahey/Hernandez = Ozzie Smith.

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Sabermetrics has its place in baseball. However giving over every decision is nonsense. Its like your all trying to create your own bible code. Seeing numbers everywhere in the matrics.

It has led to an over emphasis on lefty righty matchups late in the game instead of depending on who has the hot hand. We could use a guy like Tippy Martinez in the pen who can get a save going 3 innings.

It also has led to a decreased value of defence.

Things go in cycles. Someday managers will start bucking the trends and some genius will write a book about how he can win despite the numbers.

Rambling? Yes.

Actually, that "genius" will probably still be Billy Beane, and the title will be Moneyball 2: This Is For Everyone Who Believed It Was Only About OBP.

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Let me just deal with the offensive side of the equation for a minute. According to the Runs Created formula, Miguel Tejada has created 44.3 runs in 79 games this year. Over 162 games that would be 90.2 runs.

Since we have very small sample sizes for Hernandez and Fahey for 2007, let's just use Fahey for 2006, when he created 24.6 runs in 91 games. Over 162 games over a full season that would be 43.8 runs created, probably a bit more since Fahey's 91 games included a lot of partial games where he didn't start.

From that, I'd conclude that the offensive difference between Tejada and his replacements is somewhere in the ballpark of 35-45 runs over a full season, or maybe .25 runs/game, plus or minus .05.

On the defensive side, Baseball Prospectus has Tejada's Rate at 99, meaning his defense allows one extra run to score every 100 games compared to the average shortstop. The greatest defensive SS of all time, Ozzie Smith, had a career Rate of 111, and a career best of 118. So even if you assumed that Fahey/Hernandez were equal to that (and they clearly are not), over 162 games they would save you maybe 18-25 runs over Tejada, or .13 runs/game, plus or minus .03.

Conclusion? The .25 extra runs of offense outweighs the .13 runs he loses on defense, and that's even assuming that Fahey/Hernandez = Ozzie Smith.

Nice work Frobby.

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Let me just deal with the offensive side of the equation for a minute. According to the Runs Created formula, Miguel Tejada has created 44.3 runs in 79 games this year. Over 162 games that would be 90.2 runs.

Since we have very small sample sizes for Hernandez and Fahey for 2007, let's just use Fahey for 2006, when he created 24.6 runs in 91 games. Over 162 games over a full season that would be 43.8 runs created, probably a bit more since Fahey's 91 games included a lot of partial games where he didn't start.

From that, I'd conclude that the offensive difference between Tejada and his replacements is somewhere in the ballpark of 35-45 runs over a full season, or maybe .25 runs/game, plus or minus .05.

On the defensive side, Baseball Prospectus has Tejada's Rate at 99, meaning his defense allows one extra run to score every 100 games compared to the average shortstop. The greatest defensive SS of all time, Ozzie Smith, had a career Rate of 111, and a career best of 118. So even if you assumed that Fahey/Hernandez were equal to that (and they clearly are not), over 162 games they would save you maybe 18-25 runs over Tejada, or .13 runs/game, plus or minus .03.

Conclusion? The .25 extra runs of offense outweighs the .13 runs he loses on defense, and that's even assuming that Fahey/Hernandez = Ozzie Smith.

I hate you for number crunching and completely blowing my estimate out of the water, but love you for number crunching and proving the point anyway.

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Let me just deal with the offensive side of the equation for a minute. According to the Runs Created formula, Miguel Tejada has created 44.3 runs in 79 games this year. Over 162 games that would be 90.2 runs.

Since we have very small sample sizes for Hernandez and Fahey for 2007, let's just use Fahey for 2006, when he created 24.6 runs in 91 games. Over 162 games over a full season that would be 43.8 runs created, probably a bit more since Fahey's 91 games included a lot of partial games where he didn't start.

From that, I'd conclude that the offensive difference between Tejada and his replacements is somewhere in the ballpark of 35-45 runs over a full season, or maybe .25 runs/game, plus or minus .05.

On the defensive side, Baseball Prospectus has Tejada's Rate at 99, meaning his defense allows one extra run to score every 100 games compared to the average shortstop. The greatest defensive SS of all time, Ozzie Smith, had a career Rate of 111, and a career best of 118. So even if you assumed that Fahey/Hernandez were equal to that (and they clearly are not), over 162 games they would save you maybe 18-25 runs over Tejada, or .13 runs/game, plus or minus .03.

Conclusion? The .25 extra runs of offense outweighs the .13 runs he loses on defense, and that's even assuming that Fahey/Hernandez = Ozzie Smith.

I could kiss you right now.

Wait for the "i'm not talking about numbers" argument

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Manny plays left field because David Ortiz is the DH. Any other team, Manny doesn't even own a glove.

You are also ignoring the other point: none of them played left field full-time for any length of time. Boog moved to first at the first opportunity. Yogi was at the end of his career. Tettleton only played one game in the outfield with the Orioles, and the three years he played there regularly were 1993-1995, again the end of his career. Cust is such a quality outfielder that he's in his fifth (at least) organization, because no one can find a position he can play worth carrying his bat.

So, just randomly moving someone to the outfielder that 1) has never played and 2) doesn't WANT to play (in Tejada's case) is probably a bad idea.

Well, there are other options, like DH or third. However, then you would have to sit Huff or move Melvin Mora. The simplest move would be to LF because Tejada's bat at that spot would be a huge upgrade over Gibbons and somewhat over Peyton this season. Also, Tejada would not be any worse there than Gibbons defensively although likely worse than Peyton but his offense would make up for it.

In any case it would not be a "random" move it would be a move to seriously upgrade the infield defense, which could prove highly valuable in tight one-run games which this team has fared so poorly. It could also reap benefits to the pitching staff, both allowing starters to go longer and saving the bullpen.

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I could kiss you right now.

Wait for the "i'm not talking about numbers" argument

"yeah but Tejada missed that one ball against Seattle in the Kingdome years ago"

or

"If you play Tejada at LF and Fahey at SS, then together they generate 135 runs a season, come on this is a no brainer"

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Well, there are other options, like DH or third. However, then you would have to sit Huff or move Melvin Mora. The simplest move would be to LF because Tejada's bat at that spot would be a huge upgrade over Gibbons and somewhat over Peyton this season. Also, Tejada would not be any worse there than Gibbons defensively although likely worse than Peyton but his offense would make up for it.

In any case it would not be a "random" move it would be a move to seriously upgrade the infield defense, which could prove highly valuable in tight one-run games which this team has fared so poorly. It could also reap benefits to the pitching staff, both allowing starters to go longer and saving the bullpen.

So Tejada's offense makes up for Payton's but NOT Fahey/Hernandez?

WHAT?!

WHAT?!

my brain just exploded

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In any case it would not be a "random" move it would be a move to seriously upgrade the infield defense, which could prove highly valuable in tight one-run games which this team has fared so poorly. It could also reap benefits to the pitching staff, both allowing starters to go longer and saving the bullpen.
But those "tight one-run games" would probably no longer be "tight one-run games" when you factor in the lost offense from replacing Gibbons/Payton/Huff with Fahey/Hernandez. Even though all of the first group are having terrible years, they're all still pretty significantly better than Fahey/Hernandez.

The major flaw in your theory is that you want to move one of our in-house options into the starting lineup. Thats just crazy, because those guys are terrible. Thats not an opinion, its a fact that Fahey and Hernandez are not major league caliber starting shortstops. If you go outside the organization and find a top level defender who can actually still put up a 700 OPS, then it makes a lot more sense. Its still a bad idea to move Tejada around, but you could trade him and get back a younger guy who could be placed wherever you wanted to move Tejada to and save us money.

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