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melankfo

Tejada is back and killing us again!

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Let me just deal with the offensive side of the equation for a minute. According to the Runs Created formula, Miguel Tejada has created 44.3 runs in 79 games this year. Over 162 games that would be 90.2 runs.

Since we have very small sample sizes for Hernandez and Fahey for 2007, let's just use Fahey for 2006, when he created 24.6 runs in 91 games. Over 162 games over a full season that would be 43.8 runs created, probably a bit more since Fahey's 91 games included a lot of partial games where he didn't start.

From that, I'd conclude that the offensive difference between Tejada and his replacements is somewhere in the ballpark of 35-45 runs over a full season, or maybe .25 runs/game, plus or minus .05.

On the defensive side, Baseball Prospectus has Tejada's Rate at 99, meaning his defense allows one extra run to score every 100 games compared to the average shortstop. The greatest defensive SS of all time, Ozzie Smith, had a career Rate of 111, and a career best of 118. So even if you assumed that Fahey/Hernandez were equal to that (and they clearly are not), over 162 games they would save you maybe 18-25 runs over Tejada, or .13 runs/game, plus or minus .03.

Conclusion? The .25 extra runs of offense outweighs the .13 runs he loses on defense, and that's even assuming that Fahey/Hernandez = Ozzie Smith.

But shouldn't you be measuring the offensive difference between Gibbons/Peyton versus Hernandez/Fahey, because Tejada's bat is remaining in the lineup anyway, and thus his offense is not being lost? The only offense being lost is the difference between the replacement shortstops hitting and the LF combination that Tejada's bat is replacing. So this really doesn't prove anything as far as what would actually be taking place in the overall scheme of the lineup and defense.

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Apparently I missed the part of baseball school where they said one run games are won solely by defense.

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Then you don't read much during spring training when Tejada was the hardest working player on the team.

Were you in the clubhouse? The weight room? On the back fields? There certainly were articles about Tejada coming in earlier and doing more extra work than he had done in the past (gee, he couldn't have possibly been doing that extra work for the benefit of the cameras, could he?), but that doesn't tell you anything about how much work others were doing. Maybe there aren't cameras around when Chris Gomez does extra work or nobody mentions Brian Roberts doing extra work because he always does? Your statement is every bit as silly as the opposing ones you're criticizing.

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But those "tight one-run games" would probably no longer be "tight one-run games" when you factor in the lost offense from replacing Gibbons/Payton/Huff with Fahey/Hernandez. Even though all of the first group are having terrible years, they're all still pretty significantly better than Fahey/Hernandez.

The major flaw in your theory is that you want to move one of our in-house options into the starting lineup. Thats just crazy, because those guys are terrible. Thats not an opinion, its a fact that Fahey and Hernandez are not major league caliber starting shortstops. If you go outside the organization and find a top level defender who can actually still put up a 700 OPS, then it makes a lot more sense. Its still a bad idea to move Tejada around, but you could trade him and get back a younger guy who could be placed wherever you wanted to move Tejada to and save us money.

I tried to use this on him a week ago, I think he came back with "there would be less one run games because Hernandez/Fahey play better defense which better preserve games and give the pitcher more confidence" etc etc etc

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But shouldn't you be measuring the offensive difference between Gibbons/Peyton versus Hernandez/Fahey, because Tejada's bat is remaining in the lineup anyway, and thus his offense is not being lost? The only offense being lost is the difference between the replacement shortstops hitting and the LF combination that Tejada's bat is replacing. So this really doesn't prove anything as far as what would actually be taking place in the overall scheme of the lineup and defense.
I'd be willing to be a lot of money that the overall defensive/offensive runs contributed/saved are better with Tejada at SS and everybody else where they are now than with Fahey/Hernandez at SS and Tejada replacing anybody else across the diamond.

Its a bit of a mystery b/c we don't know exactly how well Tejada would play defensively elsewhere, but he'd probably be about average to slightly above at most positions, just like he is at SS, but you could crank the numbers from an offensive standpoint pretty easily and make pretty sound assumptions for the defense. Maybe I'll try and do that at some point. If that sort of analysis showed that its a bad idea to move Tejada from SS (considering our current personnel) then would you finally admit that Fahey/Hernandez don't belong anywhere near a starters job in MLB?

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Were you in the clubhouse? The weight room? On the back fields? There certainly were articles about Tejada coming in earlier and doing more extra work than he had done in the past (gee, he couldn't have possibly been doing that extra work for the benefit of the cameras, could he?), but that doesn't tell you anything about how much work others were doing. Maybe there aren't cameras around when Chris Gomez does extra work or nobody mentions Brian Roberts doing extra work because he always does? Your statement is every bit as silly as the opposing ones you're criticizing.

Tejada works just as hard as everyone else, which is pretty damn hard.

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So Tejada's offense makes up for Payton's but NOT Fahey/Hernandez?

WHAT?!

WHAT?!

my brain just exploded

Yeah, once he is moved to LF. That is where his offense would be compared to as he is still in the lineup. What part of this don't you get. Since Peyton/Gibbons (one of these two mashers) would be on the bench and Fahey or Hernandez off the bench and hitting in their spot that is where you compare the difference in offense, because that is who is being replaced in the lineup! No need to have your brain explode as this is really not difficult to grasp. You need to look at the lineup difference when thinking offense, and Tejada is still in it batting 5th. Again, the only difference in the lineup is Hernandez/Fahey for Peyton/Gibbons. For some reason that doesn't seem to register with you. Think about it!!!

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Even though they are having terrible years, the offensive and defensive conributions of Gibbons/Payton in LF and Tejada at SS are still considerably better than the combined offensive and defensive contributions of Tejada in LF and Fahey/Hernandez at SS.

Your general idea is not a terrible one, if you want a defensive-minded SS, thats fine. The problem is that it doesn't fit for our current personnel. Moving Tejada around the diamond and replacing him with in-house players at SS hurts both the team's overall runs scored/saved margin and Tejada's trade value and ability to bring back talent if we move him.

Trading Tejada and getting a defensive-minded SS (although it has to be someone who can hit far better than Fahey/Hernandez) is a move that needs to be made in the offseason, not something we should tinker with over the final two months because we clearly don't have the personnel to make it a worthwhile move on the field and it also clearly lowers Tejada's trade value to essentially admit that he's no longer a capable SS (even though that is not true by any means, despite your assertions otherwise).

I'm not a Miggy basher and I don't play one on TV and I think the premise of this thread is patently absurd, but Hernandez is a gifted defensive SS IMO and if you replaced Tejada with him you would upgrade the IF defense considerably. You would however be losing about 100 points in OPS at that position. If you put Tejada's' bat at DH you would be upgrading that slot by the 100 points you lost at SS. since the current occupents of that slot are hitting under .700 OPS. So you haven't lost any offense and you have improved the defense. I think if Tejada is traded you have to get at least a 100 point upgrade in offense back, regardless of what position that player/players, plays.

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But shouldn't you be measuring the offensive difference between Gibbons/Peyton versus Hernandez/Fahey, because Tejada's bat is remaining in the lineup anyway, and thus his offense is not being lost? The only offense being lost is the difference between the replacement shortstops hitting and the LF combination that Tejada's bat is replacing. So this really doesn't prove anything as far as what would actually be taking place in the overall scheme of the lineup and defense.

I may have lost my way because I haven't read all 396 posts in this thread. I was just dealing with replacing Tejada with Fahey/Hernandez and whether that would help or hurt the team, and trying to answer the question of how much offense it would cost. Are you proposing that we make Tejada a left fielder? If so, I'd have to know how his defense would be out there in order to measure the effects you are talking about.

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I'm not a Miggy basher and I don't play one on TV and I think the premise of this thread is patently absurd, but Hernandez is a gifted defensive SS IMO and if you replaced Tejada with him you would upgrade the IF defense considerably.
I think a lot of people are assuming Hernandez is an elite defensive SS, but I don't think thats definitely true. He certainly played fantastically while he was starting, but his past minor league numbers don't really suggest he's that good. I had never heard of him before he was called up so I don't know what the scouts say about him, but I think the fact that they go with Fahey first (and they know he can't hit) over Hernandez implies that the O's brass thinks Fahey is a better defensive SS than Hernandez, or at least was in the minors. Fahey is good, but not elite. Both are better defensively than Tejada, but I don't think either are worthy of a starting role on any team solely because of their defense.

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Yeah, once he is moved to LF. That is where his offense would be compared to as he is still in the lineup. What part of this don't you get. Since Peyton/Gibbons (one of these two mashers) would be on the bench and Fahey or Hernandez off the bench and hitting in their spot that is where you compare the difference in offense, because that is who is being replaced in the lineup! No need to have your brain explode as this is really not difficult to grasp. You need to look at the lineup difference when thinking offense, and Tejada is still in it batting 5th. Again, the only difference in the lineup is Hernandez/Fahey for Peyton/Gibbons. For some reason that doesn't seem to register with you. Think about it!!!

So we move Tejada to Left Field..where he is most likely a feilder far below average. He might get hurt, his offense will probably fall as he attempts the new position. Not to mention he doesn't add up to the other Left Fielders of the League (Matsui, Manny, Carlos Lee etc).

All of this while Hernandez and Fahey get even worse at the plate, and possibly in the field, as they approach playing a full season at the major league level..something neither is meant to do.

FANTASTIC.

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Yeah, once he is moved to LF. That is where his offense would be compared to as he is still in the lineup. What part of this don't you get. Since Peyton/Gibbons (one of these two mashers) would be on the bench and Fahey or Hernandez off the bench and hitting in their spot that is where you compare the difference in offense, because that is who is being replaced in the lineup!

For the love of God its PAYTON

P A Y T O N

And secondly.

You are a defensive guy. You want to create a demonstratively BAD defensive alignment in the OF, for a negligibly better IF alignment. To replace Payton (P A Y T O N) who, over the course of a season, has better offensive stats than Fahey. Payton is a career 283 hitter and 765 OPS. You're going to replace that with a career 236 hitter with a 613 career OPS.

Right, good.

Wow. just wow.

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I may have lost my way because I haven't read all 396 posts in this thread. I was just dealing with replacing Tejada with Fahey/Hernandez and whether that would help or hurt the team, and trying to answer the question of how much offense it would cost. Are you proposing that we make Tejada a left fielder? If so, I'd have to know how his defense would be out there in order to measure the effects you are talking about.

Yes I was.

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