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BirdMan

4 Moves That Need To Be Made

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Somehow more than anyone else on this board, you always miss the intent of my posts... I was defending your previous point.

Bergesen is what he is... a decent prospect, often described with fringe stuff... who is more likely to help a bullpen in long-relief, vs ever being a consistent Major League starter... being worried about his contract status 7 years from now, is point-less.

Except I really didn't miss the intent of your post. I was quoting it as evidence for my claim, that is all. I said in my first line he isn't an elite prospect, to follow up with your claim about not needing to be a good judge to tell what kind of prospect Bergesen is.

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Pie's "ceiling" is an All-Star outfielder who hits, steals bases, has power, plays Gold Glove defense.

That's nice.

But I prefer actual performance over "ceiling" any day of the week. Montanez and Reimold have hit. Pie hasn't. I'd prefer either Motnanez or Reimold in LF right now.

I'd release Bass and Eaton. (again- see actual performance over "ceiling"). The way Hernandez pitched tonight, I'm ready to insert him in the 5 spot- or Bergesen.

You have to give Pie time to get to his peak, since he's played, uh, 4 games for the Orioles, and Montanez at Pie's age was busy sucking in AA.

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You do not have to be an amazing judge of talent, to understand the level of prospect that Bergesen is.

And no prospect of Bergesen's talent level has ever become an all-star talent in the majors? Ever?

Come on guys - you know better than that.

Most people point to Bergesen's K / 9 stat as a definitive indicator that he'll never be an effective major league pitcher. So I did a quick look for pitchers who were not high draft picks who had equal or lower K / 9 innings stats in either the minors or the majors who had long, exceptionally effective careers.

Right off the bat I came across this guy:

Career minor league stats:

41 - 30, 3.34 ERA, 1.381 WHIP, 8.6 H / 9, 3.8 BB / 9, 5.2 K / 9, 1.38 K / BB

Compare this to Bergesen's

32 - 23, 3.75 ERA, 1.235 WHIP, 9.5 H / 9, 1.6 BB / 9, 5.8 K / 9, 3.53 K / BB

The former pitcher went on to pitch 26 seasons in the majors compiling 288 wins and a career 3.34 ERA with a lifetime K / 9 of 4.3 and an absolutely average K / BB of 1.78.

Today, people would probably pan Tommy John out of hand if he were a prospect for his low K / BB and K / 9 numbers.

And I found that comp in about 5 minutes. I'm sure I could find a lot of other pitchers with minor league numbers less impressive than Bergesen's at the same age or older that went on to become top pitchers in the majors, without even breaking a sweat.

The numbers don't tell all of the story. They don't accurately predict the intelligence of the player. Or his work ethic. Or whether he'll learn a new pitch at the majors that will transform his repertoire. They are guides for predicting success, not the definitive last word. There is absolutely no reason why a 22 year old control pitcher like Bergesen can't become an even better pitcher in the majors than he was in the minors.

I've watched Bergesen pitch enough times in person to know that he's got the kind of command to be successful in the majors. There are literally hundreds of pitchers who gone on to have better pro careers than they showed themselves capable of in the minors.

The point is none of us can predict what he'll do with certainty and why in the world wouldn't you want to get the extra year of control if all it costs you is a couple of weeks now?

Edited by bluedog

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Montanez and Reimold have hit. Pie hasn't. I'd prefer either Motnanez or Reimold in LF right now.

Montanez and Reimold have hit in AA. Pie has hit in AAA at a much younger age than both. Meaning Pie has the upper hand here. Don't kid yourself pretending you know what you're talking about.

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Are there absolute reasons why Bergesen can definitively not succeed in the Majors?... I could agree with you, that is probably not accurate... anyone that pitches 148 innings in AA, at age 22, and lets up only 143 hits, and 27 walks is a prospect...

However, his stuff being described as fringe by everyone... and the fact that is best shown in the limited amount of K's he accumlated (72)... also speaks just as loud about the type of prospect he is.

If the O's wanted to leave him in AAA for several months to work on a strikeout pitch, and to improve against lefties... I could live with that.... if they are going to bring him up before the end of April.... than I would just assume bring him up now, when he can actually help the team.

Worrying about service time makes sense with franchise changing talents like Logoria, and Wieters.... worrying service time in the case of talent like Bergesen does not.

If he does pan out to be a solid 3 or 4, or even better, than it is worth holding him down a few extra weeks for the extra year he could be with us.

Sometimes franchise changing talents can be steady and consistent players like Bergeson in addition to those 5 tool guys and pitchers who throw in the upper 90's.

A team needs both to be great over the long haul, and Bergeson could be a rock.

I can't believe how much people think everything in baseball is cut and dry and "obvious".

Sometimes the turtle does beat the hare, even in baseball...

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The hatred for Pie borders on complete irrational insanity. It creeps me out, to be honest. He didn't call Baltimore a horse **** town, he didn't record a promo for the Red Sox; he's just a baseball player trying his best. I can understand not liking the trade, but calm down the damn hyperbole.

I had no problem with the trade. I have a problem with him blocking two players in my opinion that are better than him. You guys act like this is the first time he has been in the majors. No one is talking about how he looks in the outfield. Last night he had one drop in front of him that Scott would have had. Just so you know I am not a big Scott fan when it comes to defense.

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I had no problem with the trade. I have a problem with him blocking two players in my opinion that are better than him. You guys act like this is the first time he has been in the majors. No one is talking about how he looks in the outfield. Last night he had one drop in front of him that Scott would have had. Just so you know I am not a big Scott fan when it comes to defense.

Lou Montanez is not being blocked and he is not a good player, he's a fourth outfielder at best, and well, Reimold has had one really good year, and he's been hurt a couple of times, so let him hit at AAA...and Pie is learning a new position in a new ballpark, give him a week or two to get used to how things play at a park that isn't Wrigley.

But seriously, you're still very wrong, and saying very dumb things.

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I had no problem with the trade. I have a problem with him blocking two players in my opinion that are better than him. You guys act like this is the first time he has been in the majors. No one is talking about how he looks in the outfield. Last night he had one drop in front of him that Scott would have had. Just so you know I am not a big Scott fan when it comes to defense.

There was no such play last night. If you are talking about the double off the bat of Dionar Navarro, you are sadly mistaken. Carl Crawford wouldn't have gotten to that ball and he's arguably got the best range of any left fielder in baseball.

Pie hasn't done anything wrong in left field yet during the regular season. He's been chasing some bad pitches at the plate, but he's also had several quality at bats where he worked walks because the pitcher wouldn't throw him anything to hit.

Pie is going through a learning phase right now just like Jones did last year. Pitchers assume they can get Pie out without throwing him hittable pitches. Pie will have to be patient and take walks when they are offered to him in order to convince pitchers to throw him strikes. I have faith that Crowley will get him where he needs to be if he's given enough time.

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Pie's "ceiling" is an All-Star outfielder who hits, steals bases, has power, plays Gold Glove defense.

That's nice.

But I prefer actual performance over "ceiling" any day of the week. Montanez and Reimold have hit. Pie hasn't. I'd prefer either Motnanez or Reimold in LF right now.

Where has Montanez and Reimold hit that Pie hasn't hit at?

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In my opinion

1. Trade Freel for a bag of balls or whatever we can get

2. Send Pie down. Can't hit never is going to. He is so uncomfortable playing left field that he is not a positive in the field. If he dosn't clear waivers, so be it.

3. Release Eaton

4. Send Bass down. So what if he does not clear waivers, he is not in our future.Not the type of player that is going to comeback to hurt you.

1A. Call up Moore. We need a backup third baseman. Wiggington is not the answer as our backup. We all will remember Bass's overthrow against the Yankees. Truth be told there were two balls hit to third that inning if Moore had been there that would have probably been outs.

2A. Call Montanez up. Much better bat and will field as well as Pie right now. So will Scott on a platoon.

3A. The obvious, call Bergesen up

4A. Recall Albers

I think this makes us a better team without doing any damge to our future.

I agree with it all. I have heard emphatically that Lou Pinella could not stand Felix Pie, and ridiculed his lack of ability to hit. Since I trust Lou knows talent, I think the Orioles are wasting their time with him as well. They would be better off giving Montanez or Reimold the playing time. Pie also doesn't look all that great to me defensively either. He is simply overated from what I have seen.

BTW this is a great thread. Whoever rated it one star ought to be ashamed of themselves. Childish, to say the least.:mad:

Edited by Old#5fan

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I agree with it all. I have heard emphatically that Lou Pinella could not stand Felix Pie, and ridiculed his lack of ability to hit. Since I trust Lou knows talent, I think the Orioles are wasting their time with him as well. They would be better off giving Montanez or Reimold the playing time. Pie also doesn't look all that great to me defensively either. He is simply overated from what I have seen.

Yeah cause we should all be impressed with head coaches who are smart enough to openly ridicule their young players.

Lou Piniella is widely regarded as one of the worst managers in pro sports for handling young players. Why in the world trust Lou and not trust Andy MacPhail, Dave Trembley and Terry Crowley who all say Pie is a great kid, totally willing to learn, follows instructions, works hard and has exceptional talent?

I mean if you're such a big fan of Piniella and don't have any faith in the O's coaches or front office, why not go root for the Cubs?

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However, his stuff is described as fringe by everyone... and that is best shown in the limited amount of K's he accumlated (72)... that speaks just as loud about the type of prospect he is.

If the O's wanted to leave him in AAA for several months to work on a strikeout pitch, and to improve against lefties... I could live with that.... if they are going to bring him up before the end of April.... than I would just assume bring him up now, when he can actually help the team.

Worrying about service time makes sense with franchise changing talents like Logoria, and Wieters.... worrying about service time in the case of talent like Bergesen does not.

I again have to disagree with the simple equation that K = Pitching Talent. It does not. Successful pitching is about changing speeds and hitting locations. Sometimes that leads to a lot of K's. Other times it leads to weak contact, resulting in pop-ups ground balls. One of the biggest misconceptions in baseball, IMO, is focusing too much on velocity. Anything 90mph or up is sufficient if you are changing speeds effectively and hitting spots.

The list of successful pitchers with relatively low K rates is very long. Some examples would be:

Maddux - 6.1 K/9

Moyer - 5.4 K/9

Cuellar - 5.2 K/9

Palmer - 5.0 K/9

Tommy John - 4.3 K/9 (someone mentioned him before)

There are many, many more examples. There is no reason Bergesen, with decent velocity, an ability to change speeds, and great control, cannot duplicate this kind of success. Scouting opinions should not get in the way of results. Give the kid a chance. Eaton is a waste of time.

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Your Tommy John comparison is way off base - primarily due to his having pitched in a completely different era. Here's what I mean:

In his MLB career John struck out 11.4% of all batters he faced. The MLB average during his career was only 14.2%, meaning his rate was 80.3% of league average. Since 2004, MLB pitchers have struck out 18.2%. Were John pitching today his K% would have been more like 14.6%, meaning that his K-Rate would have been more like 5.5 (compared to his actual of 4.3). As a point of comparison, Guthrie had a rate of 5.7 last year.

Unfortunately, that's a gross misuse of statistics without proving first that the distribution of "strikeout" to "control" pitchers was identical in John's era.

If current trends favor more strikeout, velocity style pitchers on rosters, then naturally the K rate will be higher.

It does not prove, however, that John's stats would be any different today. If you could prove that the higher K rate was solely due to more strikeout-prone hitters, than maybe you would have something.

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I know I'm going to get flamed for this, but Eaton wasn't horrid today. He gave up 4 runs, but it was only in one inning, and Markakis probably should have made that catch. Had he been more economical with his pitches, he might have made it to the 6th.

Bass was obviously the weak link today. He should be released ASAP.

So here's what I would do before the next homestand.

DFA Bass and Pie

Callup Montanez/Reimold and Bergesen

Return Luke Scott to the OF

Move Eaton to the bullpen

Montanez or Reimold can platoon with Scott in the OF. Bergesen takes Eaton's rotation spot and Eaton will probably be more reliable than Bass in the bullpen. I thought about bringing up Hernandez to put in the pen, but its better to keep him starting in case Hendrickson or Simon implode.

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