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Why the Markakis - Pie analogy has holes in it

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Let me say, first of all, that I continue to favor giving Felix Pie regular playing time and letting this experiment play out for a while.

Nevertheless, there is a line of thinking that goes like this: "Nick Markakis hit .182/.270/.288 in April. What if we had given up on him then?"

That logic is a bit superficial, in my view. I think anyone could see, from his very first game, that Nick had an advanced understanding of the strike zone and a very patient, disciplined approach at the plate. The fact that he managed a .270 OBP despite his .182 average was testament to that. And although Nick struck out quite a bit that April (16 times in 74 PA's), his K rate was certainly not unreasonably high, and it wasn't due to problems in strike zone judgment. Mostly, it had to do with his difficulties hitting fastballs up and in. And of course, Nick had jumped to the majors after only 130 AA AB's the year before, so a lengthy adjustment period was reasonable to expect. And it wasn't like the O's had lots of other candidates vying for his spot.

So, we should be careful when we use the Markakis analogy to justify sticking with Pie. Right now, I'm still on board for a half season of Pie getting regular time, but that trial period shortens if he keeps hitting .135 and playing questionable defense. He does need to show more than he is showing now to keep his trial going through June.

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Let me say, first of all, that I continue to favor giving Felix Pie regular playing time and letting this experiment play out for a while.

Nevertheless, there is a line of thinking that goes like this: "Nick Markakis hit .182/.270/.288 in April. What if we had given up on him then?"

That logic is a bit superficial, in my view. I think anyone could see, from his very first game, that Nick had an advanced understanding of the strike zone and a very patient, disciplined approach at the plate. The fact that he managed a .270 OBP despite his .182 average was testament to that. And although Nick struck out quite a bit that April (16 times in 74 PA's), his K rate was certainly not unreasonably high, and it wasn't due to problems in strike zone judgment. Mostly, it had to do with his difficulties hitting fastballs up and in. And of course, Nick had jumped to the majors after only 130 AA AB's the year before, so a lengthy adjustment period was reasonable to expect. And it wasn't like the O's had lots of other candidates vying for his spot.

So, we should be careful when we use the Markakis analogy to justify sticking with Pie. Right now, I'm still on board for a half season of Pie getting regular time, but that trial period shortens if he keeps hitting .135 and playing questionable defense. He does need to show more than he is showing now to keep his trial going through June.

This is what I was trying to say yesterday. Thanks!

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The analogy is important because it shows that you don't give up on a young talent player despite a small sample size of poor play.

That's the entire point.

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The analogy is important because it shows that you don't give up on a young talent player despite a small sample size of poor play.

That's the entire point.

Here-in lies the problem. Having five tools does not make one a young talented "baseball" player. It just means they have loads of talent. Hopefully Pie can translate his raw tools into that of a solid ballplayer, but as of now, he has yet to do that.

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The analogy is important because it shows that you don't give up on a young talent player despite a small sample size of poor play.

That's the entire point.

But, there is no one-size-fits-all rule about how large a sample size has to be before it is big enough to make a judgment on. That is my point here. It depends not only on the number of PAs, but just how bad the production has been, why it appears the player is struggling, how old he is, what previous experience and opportunities he has had, and what the alternatives are.

Just to make this a bit more concrete, I can't imagine that Pie will stil be getting regular playing time beyond Memorial Day if he's hitting .135 with the K rate he has now. If he's hitting .200 and showing some progress, that is a different situation.

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Here-in lies the problem. Having five tools does not make one a young talented "baseball" player. It just means they have loads of talent. Hopefully Pie can translate his raw tools into that of a solid ballplayer, but as of now, he has yet to do that.
How can one have loads of talent and not be talented?:scratchchinhmm: You lost me there. Now I could understand how one could have loads of talent and yet not be able to become a solid ballplayer.

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And my biggest point in all of this is: what do the O's have to lose by playing Pie? So what if he flops and the O's lose more games as a result. We all know this year ain't about W's and L's. It's about finding what we've got and how best to utilize it.

Give the man 200-300 Ab's and then try to make a more informed opinion. It's best for Pie, and it's best for the O's. Again, what's the rush?

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All I can see at this point is that Felix's "hitting" "tool".......needs to be returned to the shop for being defective.

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To me the biggest difference between the 2 is nto necessarily even the patience and strike zone judgement, but the fast that as a whole, Nick is a pure hitter, much more of a pure hitter than Pie. Pie maybe got by before on athleticism which in the majors wont automatically get u by......

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And my biggest point in all of this is: what do the O's have to lose by playing Pie? So what if he flops and the O's lose more games as a result. We all know this year ain't about W's and L's. It's about finding what we've got and how best to utilize it.

Give the man 200-300 Ab's and then try to make a more informed opinion. It's best for Pie, and it's best for the O's. Again, what's the rush?

Its not neccessarily a rush to get rid of him. BUT, he needs to show "something" if you're going to play him before Scott, Montanez, or Reimold. We are two weeks into the 2009 season, and while we don't "expect" to contend, stranger things have happened. See Rays, Tampa. I am not against giving the man some time, but not if he shows NO improvement in any areas. Right now, small sample size or not, he does not appear to be making any adjustments to make himself better.

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Here-in lies the problem. Having five tools does not make one a young talented "baseball" player. It just means they have loads of talent. Hopefully Pie can translate his raw tools into that of a solid ballplayer, but as of now, he has yet to do that.
You are now currently making our argument.

He hasn't done that yet, nobody disagrees there. But he obviously has the talent and abilities to become an excellent baseball player. He's proven he can do it at the AAA level. Now all that is left is him adjusting and doing it at the MLB level.

He may or may not do it, but if you give up on him after three weeks, that's really the only mistake you can make. If we were playing for something, we wouldn't be able to sit through his struggles. But we're not. We are losing nothing but putting him out there. The other option, Reimold, has had only a couple weeks at AAA. If in two months Pie is struggling still, showing no or only very limited signs of improvement, and Reimold is handling AAA like he handled AA, then make the switch. But switching back to Scott or to Montanez at this point is simply a foolish thing to do.

Giving Pie a tryout is obviously the smart and right thing to do, and that's exactly why they are doing it. Its not an endless tryout, but it certainly isn't two weeks long. I don't mind if your opinion is he'll never make it and you never wanted him. That's fine, although again I think the wrong opinion. But if you wanted him at first, and decided within two weeks you are done with seeing him, then you are an incredibly impatient fan with no concept of how baseball actually works. Players don't always, in fact they usually don't, hit their stride immediately. Give Pie a chance to play every day and let's see what we've got.

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Let me say, first of all, that I continue to favor giving Felix Pie regular playing time and letting this experiment play out for a while.

Nevertheless, there is a line of thinking that goes like this: "Nick Markakis hit .182/.270/.288 in April. What if we had given up on him then?"

That logic is a bit superficial, in my view. I think anyone could see, from his very first game, that Nick had an advanced understanding of the strike zone and a very patient, disciplined approach at the plate. The fact that he managed a .270 OBP despite his .182 average was testament to that. And although Nick struck out quite a bit that April (16 times in 74 PA's), his K rate was certainly not unreasonably high, and it wasn't due to problems in strike zone judgment. Mostly, it had to do with his difficulties hitting fastballs up and in. And of course, Nick had jumped to the majors after only 130 AA AB's the year before, so a lengthy adjustment period was reasonable to expect. And it wasn't like the O's had lots of other candidates vying for his spot.

So, we should be careful when we use the Markakis analogy to justify sticking with Pie. Right now, I'm still on board for a half season of Pie getting regular time, but that trial period shortens if he keeps hitting .135 and playing questionable defense. He does need to show more than he is showing now to keep his trial going through June.

As far as I can tell..any comparisons on any level at any time of Markakais and Pie are ridiculous. Pie, simply put, has never, and will never prove to be close to the same player Markakis is. Pure and simple. Sorry. So there you have my take on it.

BTW, ID LOVE TO BE WRONG!

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How can one have loads of talent and not be talented?:scratchchinhmm: You lost me there. Now I could understand how one could have loads of talent and yet not be able to become a solid ballplayer.

You can be a good athlete ...Just not a good baseball player. Which IMO Pie is not.

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All I have to say is that Vlad never wanted to come here, we low-balled Delgado, and never made a serious offer to Tex...oh yeah, and we should have drafted Smoak.

And yes, thanks for the suggestion...I will ignore Pie threads from now on.

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As far as I can tell..any comparisons on any level at any time of Markakais and Pie are ridiculous. Pie, simply put, has never, and will never prove to be close to the same player Markakis is. Pure and simple. Sorry. So there you have my take on it.

BTW, ID LOVE TO BE WRONG!

Dont be sorry Roy ....You wont be wrong. Pie is a good athlete no question. Again Just not a very good major league ball player. He has AAAA written all over him!

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