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Frobby

Why the Markakis - Pie analogy has holes in it

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As far as I can tell..any comparisons on any level at any time of Markakais and Pie are ridiculous. Pie, simply put, has never, and will never prove to be close to the same player Markakis is. Pure and simple. Sorry. So there you have my take on it.

BTW, ID LOVE TO BE WRONG!

That is very simple, Roy, but it is too simple. Too simple because Pie could be siginficantly short of Nick Markakis as a player, and still be a very good player. So the real issue is, when have we seen enough to reasonably conclude that he's not going to be a very good player? And I say, it's a sliding scale.

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All I have to say is that Vlad never wanted to come here, we low-balled Delgado, and never made a serious offer to Tex...oh yeah, and we should have drafted Smoak.

And yes, thanks for the suggestion...I will ignore Pie threads from now on.

Who havent we low balled from the free agent mark since back in 97?:D You could say Tejada I guess ...But we lucked out that there wasnt much competition for him.

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That is very simple, Roy, but it is too simple. Too simple because Pie could be siginficantly short of Nick Markakis as a player, and still be a very good player. So the real issue is, when have we seen enough to reasonably conclude that he's not going to be a very good player? And I say, it's a sliding scale.

I have already seen enough...For the sake of dotting the I's it will continue. But the guy looks shakey in LF & at the plate. Personally I didnt think he looked very good in center the other night. Personally I think Montanez is the better ball player & should be playing.

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You are now currently making our argument.

He hasn't done that yet, nobody disagrees there. But he obviously has the talent and abilities to become an excellent baseball player. He's proven he can do it at the AAA level. Now all that is left is him adjusting and doing it at the MLB level.

He may or may not do it, but if you give up on him after three weeks, that's really the only mistake you can make. If we were playing for something, we wouldn't be able to sit through his struggles. But we're not. We are losing nothing but putting him out there. The other option, Reimold, has had only a couple weeks at AAA. If in two months Pie is struggling still, showing no or only very limited signs of improvement, and Reimold is handling AAA like he handled AA, then make the switch. But switching back to Scott or to Montanez at this point is simply a foolish thing to do.

Giving Pie a tryout is obviously the smart and right thing to do, and that's exactly why they are doing it. Its not an endless tryout, but it certainly isn't two weeks long. I don't mind if your opinion is he'll never make it and you never wanted him. That's fine, although again I think the wrong opinion. But if you wanted him at first, and decided within two weeks you are done with seeing him, then you are an incredibly impatient fan with no concept of how baseball actually works. Players don't always, in fact they usually don't, hit their stride immediately. Give Pie a chance to play every day and let's see what we've got.

If you have read my stuff, I fall into the category bolded above. That said, I have said all along that now that he's here we have to see what he can do. But NOT if he continues to go out there and make no improvements. I don't expect him to be Hank Aaron after two weeks, but he should not be making the same mistakes now that he made 2 years ago with the Cubs. Can we at least agree on that?

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Its not neccessarily a rush to get rid of him. BUT, he needs to show "something" if you're going to play him before Scott, Montanez, or Reimold. We are two weeks into the 2009 season, and while we don't "expect" to contend, stranger things have happened. See Rays, Tampa. I am not against giving the man some time, but not if he shows NO improvement in any areas. Right now, small sample size or not, he does not appear to be making any adjustments to make himself better.

Well we're not playing him ahead of Scott, he's still manning the DH spot and performing just fine in that role. No reason to make a change there.

Reimold has a grand total of 47 AAA at-bats, I have no problem with leaving him at Norfolk for a couple more months to ensure he's completely ready.

Montanez is what he is. A typical late bloomer, and ultimately a low ceiling type of guy. I see a guy who plays average defense at best, and might put up an .800 OPS in the majors in a good year.

With all that being said, I don't see why we can't give Pie a couple more months to try and figure things out. From all accounts, Crowley has completely destructed and rebuilt his swing and approach from the ground up. Let's give it a little more time to see if he can make it work. Again, what do we really have to lose?

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You are now currently making our argument.

He hasn't done that yet, nobody disagrees there. But he obviously has the talent and abilities to become an excellent baseball player. He's proven he can do it at the AAA level. Now all that is left is him adjusting and doing it at the MLB level.

He may or may not do it, but if you give up on him after three weeks, that's really the only mistake you can make. If we were playing for something, we wouldn't be able to sit through his struggles. But we're not. We are losing nothing but putting him out there. The other option, Reimold, has had only a couple weeks at AAA. If in two months Pie is struggling still, showing no or only very limited signs of improvement, and Reimold is handling AAA like he handled AA, then make the switch. But switching back to Scott or to Montanez at this point is simply a foolish thing to do.

Giving Pie a tryout is obviously the smart and right thing to do, and that's exactly why they are doing it. Its not an endless tryout, but it certainly isn't two weeks long. I don't mind if your opinion is he'll never make it and you never wanted him. That's fine, although again I think the wrong opinion. But if you wanted him at first, and decided within two weeks you are done with seeing him, then you are an incredibly impatient fan with no concept of how baseball actually works. Players don't always, in fact they usually don't, hit their stride immediately. Give Pie a chance to play every day and let's see what we've got.

I dont & didnt .... I've personally been extremely consistent on my opinion of Mr. Pie. Sadly I think his pick up had more to do with AM's ego than Pie being a upgrade over Montanez or Reimold.

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If you have read my stuff, I fall into the category bolded above. That said, I have said all along that now that he's here we have to see what he can do. But NOT if he continues to go out there and make no improvements. I don't expect him to be Hank Aaron after two weeks, but he should not be making the same mistakes now that he made 2 years ago with the Cubs. Can we at least agree on that?
I agree he should show improvement over his trial period. But he doesn't have to show it in any increments. If he makes a bad play today and another in two weeks, that doesn't mean anything.

We're going to judge his body of work whenever the time comes to judge him. How he is improving is a part of that.

Anybody judging him already is simply being impatient. He could be hitting .400 right now and it wouldn't mean he's going to make it any more than him hitting .150 means he's not going to make it. Wait until mid-May or June then we'll see what we've got.

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I dont & didnt .... I've personally been extremely consistent on my opinion of Mr. Pie. Sadly I think his pick up had more to do with AM's ego than Pie being a upgrade over Montanez or Reimold.

Since when does MacPhail have an "ego"? He took a chance on Pie because it was a classic low risk/high reward type of deal. Those are EXACTLY the kinds of deals we should be looking for. Pie didn't necessarily reflect a need at the time, but if he pans out it could be a total steal.

Pie's upside is also much higher than either Reimold or Montanez. It may not look like an upgrade at this very moment, but it very well could this time next year. That's what remains to be seen.

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I was checking out Steve Finely's start yesterday as a comparison. Finley was struggling with a .180 average well into his first 40 games or so as a 24 year old 5-tool athlete in 1989. I don't remember if the O's included Finley because we had "given up on him" or if he was still valuable as a 25/26 year old at the time of the trade, but there may be a better comparison than the Nick M. comp.

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I think the problem with the Pie-Markakis comparisons is that it's those two players being compared. Clearly, Pie's being touted as the next big thing in Chi town didn't really help -- in fact, it practically got him DFA'd. That alone right there is reason enough to avoid Markakis considerations. It's like saying "Hey Felix, no big deal about that whole Chicago buzz thing -- Markakis sucked his first few months, too!" That just isn't fair to the kid.

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While I agree that the similarities between Pie and Markakis stop at "Young, left handed outfielder that plays for the Orioles", I was actually interested to find that their stats, AVG/OBP/SLG and BB% were very similar through their first 200~ PAs.

This really doesn't mean a ton because it's a small sample, Pie's numbers were recorded over 3 seperate stints with the Cubs, Markakis and Pie showed much different skill sets in the minors, and endless other caveats. I just thought it was interesting.

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I think Frobby makes some good points, but I don't necessarily think that Pie is going to be a dud.

Just to reiterate what some have said...I don't think we are expecting Pie to put up Markakis-like numbers.

I don't, however, see a guy who doesn't know the strike zone. He seems to be pretty patient, and has managed 4 walks in roughly 40 plate appearances...that doesn't seem to be that bad. The strikeouts are high, and I have noticed him being a little pull-happy lately, but I think these are things he can work on.

I'm still willing (and I guess O's management is too) to let the guy have a couple of months to see if he's improving. If he still is struggling in mid-June, then I say we try to pass him through waivers and get Reimold up here.

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April 22. The biggest issue I see with Felix is pitch recognition. I think sometimes we underestimate the increase in quality from AAA to major league pitching. The only way he's going to get better at bat and in the field is to play and play consistently. He has quick hands and he can generate a quick bat. He needs to see more breaking balls and he needs to stay away from high fastballs. His issues can be overcome. He's going to be okay.

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As far as I can tell..any comparisons on any level at any time of Markakais and Pie are ridiculous. Pie, simply put, has never, and will never prove to be close to the same player Markakis is. Pure and simple. Sorry. So there you have my take on it.

BTW, ID LOVE TO BE WRONG!

It seems highly unlikely that Pie will return to his former prospect status, but it was very, very high - higher than Nick's - once upon a time.

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You can be a good athlete ...Just not a good baseball player. Which IMO Pie is not.
That's not what he said. He said you can have talent and not be talented. Do you know what the definition of talent is? To have talent for something is not necessarily to be good at something. It's how you apply that talent. Many squander their talents.

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