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Reimold

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Well, we can spin this whatever way we like - he's technically at 21.9% for his career in K-rate (209 Ks / 824 ABs + 130

It seems to me that we're splitting hairs - I never used precise numbers because I'm not predicting anything specific. I'm just looking to the over-all trend and what I've heard from scouts. I think there's a chance that a lot of balls miss his bat at the major league level. Just a chance.

Fair enough.

I'll note that I didn't consider his K rate in Frederick for 2005 because of the sample size. Same goes for the GCL this year though that is because it was basically a rehab assignment. But even if you want to go with 22%, that is still a big difference to 25%, mainly because I have seen guys succeed with K% in the low 20's, but it becomes pretty uncommon when that number goes to 25%.

And I agree there is a chance he strikes out a lot at the MLB level. A very good chance. Just saying that rate of even being a good regular falls off heavily at that mid-20's mark.

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I've always had concerns about his batting average. The Ks are part of the problem, but he doesn't hit many line drives (usually around 12%) and his BABIP has been up and down which could mean that he doesn't always make consistent, hard contact. This year it clearly hasn't been a problem, but the sample size is small.

Yes, the sample is a little small, but it's encouraging to see him hitting well over .300 this year, both before his oblique injury and after. And if my memory serves, before he was DL'd last year, Reimold was well over .300 at Frederick. His average dropped a lot when he started having his physical problems. I don't think he's a .300 hitter but I think he'll give you .250-.270 early on in his career and a little better later on.

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Fair enough.

I'll note that I didn't consider his K rate in Frederick for 2005 because of the sample size. Same goes for the GCL this year though that is because it was basically a rehab assignment. But even if you want to go with 22%, that is still a big difference to 25%, mainly because I have seen guys succeed with K% in the low 20's, but it becomes pretty uncommon when that number goes to 25%.

And I agree there is a chance he strikes out a lot at the MLB level. A very good chance. Just saying that rate of even being a good regular falls off heavily at that mid-20's mark.

Yeah - he's not a high-risk guy. Just a risk guy. I think we're all together on that. And the upside is, frankly, big enough that I remain excited about him.

Didn't know that about the LD%. Something to worry about?

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I've always had concerns about his batting average. The Ks are part of the problem, but he doesn't hit many line drives (usually around 12%) and his BABIP has been up and down which could mean that he doesn't always make consistent, hard contact. This year it clearly hasn't been a problem, but the sample size is small.

I always wonder if this is a function of poorer record keeping in the minors. He is consistently low, but on the other hand he is raking it this year yet his LD% is down.

Are we to believe its all just lots of groundballs that get through the infield and flyballs that are dropping in? Nearly half (20 of 42) of his hits in AA this year are doubles or home runs. Sounds like he might hit a fair amount of stern line drives that get called flyballs and are more properly categorized as liners/fliners.

He has 135 plate appearances and a 21.5% K rate and a 8.1% BB rate. So @ 70% of the time he puts the ball in play, or about 95 balls in play. So he has hit like 9 line drives all year? Maybe.

Look at his home/away splits this year. 4% LDs on the road, 17% LDs at home, yet he hits .300ish at home and .360ish on the road?? I know small sample, but come on, that is weird.

First Inning link

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I always wonder if this is a function of poorer record keeping in the minors. He is consistently low, but on the other hand he is raking it this year yet his LD% is down.

Are we to believe its all just lots of groundballs that get through the infield and flyballs that are dropping in? Nearly half (20 of 42) of his hits in AA this year are doubles or home runs. Sounds like he might hit a fair amount of stern line drives that get called flyballs and are more properly categorized as liners/fliners.

He has 135 plate appearances and a 21.5% K rate and a 8.1% BB rate. So @ 70% of the time he puts the ball in play, or about 95 balls in play. So he has hit like 9 line drives all year? Maybe.

Look at his home/away splits this year. 4% LDs on the road, 17% LDs at home, yet he hits .300ish at home and .360ish on the road?? I know small sample, but come on, that is weird.

First Inning link

Yeah, it is something I've wondered about as well. I didn't notice the difference in LD rates at home and on the road. My guess is that he does probably hit his fair share of fliners. And it is important to point out that balls aren't classified by how hard they are hit so he could easily be hitting his fly balls or ground balls hard, just not on a flat trajectory.

So I like to look at the BABIP that comes with the LD rate and it was only .301 last year. My hope was that it was because of his injuries and so far that looks to be the case.

He's hit 8 classified LDs this year (6 at home, 2 on the road). He's hit a lot of grounders this year. And something like 30% of his fly balls have become HRs. So he's certainly hitting the ball hard.

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Yeah, it is something I've wondered about as well. I didn't notice the difference in LD rates at home and on the road. My guess is that he does probably hit his fair share of fliners. And it is important to point out that balls aren't classified by how hard they are hit so he could easily be hitting his fly balls or ground balls hard, just not on a flat trajectory.

So I like to look at the BABIP that comes with the LD rate and it was only .301 last year. My hope was that it was because of his injuries and so far that looks to be the case.

He's hit 8 classified LDs this year (6 at home, 2 on the road). He's hit a lot of grounders this year. And something like 30% of his fly balls have become HRs. So he's certainly hitting the ball hard.

My point is its likely the minor league LD data is often wrong, moreso the lower the level (as a generalization). A line drive is not just a ball hit on a flat trajectory, but on a relatively flat trajectory, which should include things like doubles to the gap.

Maybe Reimold's doubles are all really flyballs, but I dunno. That he hits it hard on the ground and drives flyballs is inconsistent with hitting such a piddling percentage of line drives. This isn't the way batted balls numbers come out for guys who rip the ball. Maybe he is just an anomaly, as Reimold is/was known to have an uppercut swing, but I think this is more a case where Bayes theorem is instructive. That the data fits out generally known truth (minor league batted ball data is somewhat unreliable) makes the conclusion that Reimold's numbers are fuzzy stronger.

So I am leery of any analysis built on his batted ball data (including last year's BABIP as compared to last years LD%).

What source are you using for your exact number of line drives, I'd like to look at this more?

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My point is its likely the minor league LD data is often wrong, moreso the lower the level (as a generalization). A line drive is not just a ball hit on a flat trajectory, but on a relatively flat trajectory, which should include things like doubles to the gap.

I know. When I say flat trajectory, I do mean relatively.

Maybe Reimold's doubles are all really flyballs, but I dunno. That he hits it hard on the ground and drives flyballs is inconsistent with hitting such a piddling percentage of line drives. This isn't the way batted balls numbers come out for guys who rip the ball. Maybe he is just an anomaly, as Reimold is/was known to have an uppercut swing, but I think this is more a case where Bayes theorem is instructive. That the data fits out generally known truth (minor league batted ball data is somewhat unreliable) makes the conclusion that Reimold's numbers are fuzzy stronger.

So I am leery of any analysis built on his batted ball data (including last year's BABIP as compared to last years LD%).

In 2005, he hit a line drive just 9.8% of the time. In 06 it was 10.6% of the time. Now, it should be pointed out that this is including in-field pop-ups which I'm pretty sure firstinning does not include. So you can adjust about 2% or so upwards for what firstinning I believe has. It all has basically been the same over the course of his career.

However, there are batted ball charts from his past three seasons. The only thing missing is his batted ball data from 05 when he was with Frederick.

05 (Aberdeen):

52 GBs, 17 hits = .327 BABIP

16 LDs, 12 hits = .750 BABIP

55 FBs, 24 hits = .436 BABIP

HR:FB% - 16.3%

HR:FB% (Frederick) - 26%

06 (Frederick)

116 GBs, 29 hits = .250 BABIP

33 LDs, 26 hits = .787 BABIP

122 FBs, 49 hits = .402 BABIP

HR:FB% = 15.3%

For this season:

52 GBs, 18 hits = .346 BABIP

8 LDs, 8 hits = 1.000 BABIP

24 FBs, 14 hits = .583 BABIP

HR:FB% = 25%

I think its clear his fly balls are hit hard, and I think we can assume that this includes a bunch of fliners. For example, I think you can look at his video in the prospect tracker and see what his "fly balls" sometimes look like. That was a pretty clear fliner, IMO.

It does appear that he was a bit unlucky last year, but he didn't really hit the ball as hard last year. Right now I think he is getting a little lucky, but it really does appear he is back to his 05 self and doing it on a higher level. The data right now is about 14 ABs behind.

What source are you using for your exact number of line drives, I'd like to look at this more?

minorleaguesplits.com

I'm surprised you haven't heard about it yet...you'll have some fun with it. The data is collected from the game logs provide by minorleaguebaseball.com.

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Thanks, I was just asking what your source was, since you hadn't provided one. That the MiLBsplits data comes from MiLB.com game logs is not self-authenticating, because my point is there is some evidence of bias/error amongst minor league data recorders.

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What was the thread a while back which had short videos of Reimold taking BP and a few game at bats?

I remember viewing them and seeing a "hitch" in his stride in the form of a strange toe-tapping, especially present during BP. Perhaps that timing mechanism is a source of Reimold's inconsistent results (great or K). I really think it could be a long-term problem for him in the show.

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What was the thread a while back which had short videos of Reimold taking BP and a few game at bats?

I remember viewing them and seeing a "hitch" in his stride in the form of a strange toe-tapping, especially present during BP. Perhaps that timing mechanism is a source of Reimold's inconsistent results (great or K). I really think it could be a long-term problem for him in the show.

Check the tracker I think there is some video there.

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Keith Goldstein at BP ranks Reimold the 9th best corner outfield prospect in baseball:

9. Nolan Reimold, Orioles

Age: 23.9

Hitting: .233/.410/.433 at Rookie-level (9 G); .321/.378/.595 at Double-A (36 G)

Reimold needed a bit of a rebound season after a slightly disappointing 2006, and now he’s trying to make up for lost time after a severely strained oblique cost him most of the season’s first half. He'll probably never be a .300 hitter in the majors, but he should have more than enough secondary skills to make up for it, as he’s not afraid to take a walk and he absolutely crushes mistakes. He’ll see less of those mistakes as he moves up--and he’s already lost a step since his college days at Bowling Green--so he’s now a corner guy or nothing. If he can keep up this pace next year at Triple-A Norfolk, he should be in Baltimore by mid-season.

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