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OH Top 10 Recap

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Not a banner year for the Hangout's 2006 top 10:

1. Billy Rowell: .273/.335/.426 at Delmarva. Solid enough for an 18 year-old playing in this league, but not really eye-popping. Grade: B.

2. Brandon Erbe: 6-8, 6.26 ERA, 111 K's vs. 62 BB's in 119.1 IP. A huge step back for this highly touted youngster, even considering that he's only 19 playing in the Carolina League. Grade: D.

3. Nolan Reimold: .306/.365/.565 at Bowie. A big bounce-back year has many wondering if he can jump to the big club next spring. Grade: A.

4. Pedro Beato: 7-8, 4.05 ERA, 106 K's vs. 59 BB's in 142.1 IP. Nothing earth-shattering here one way or the other. Grade: C.

5. Garrett Olson: 9-7, 3.16 ERA, 120 K's vs. 39 BB's in 128 IP. Excellent season in the minors, now the question is whether that translates to major league success. Grade: A.

6. Jim Hoey: 1-0, 0.00, 28 K's vs. 4 BB's in 18.2 IP at Bowie; 2-0, 1.33 ERA, 41 K's vs. 10 BB's in 27 IP at Norfolk. Clearly he's got the stuff; does he have the confidence to pitch to major league batters. Grade: A.

7. Radhames Liz: 11-4, 3.22 ERA, 161 K's vs. 70 BB's in 137 IP. Would like the BB ratio a bit lower but a very solid season. Grade: B+.

8. Brandon Snyder: .283/.354/.422 at Delmarva. A nice bounce-back season and he hit well in the second half. Grade: B-.

9. Kieron Pope: Who? Grade: Incomplete but I have no idea why he was on the list to begin with.

10. Pedro Florimon: .197/.257/.272 at Delmarva. Never hit a lick from beginning to end. Grade: F.

I'd feel a little better about this list if Olson, Hoey and Liz had translated their minor league success over to the majors. Maybe they'll make progress in September.

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It is a good list. Technically, Olson, Hoey, and Liz will remain on the list for next season.

Pope and Florimon are off.

While the players on this list took some steps back, I am reminded of all the other players in the minors that took steps forwards this year, mainly Hernandez, Spoone, and Bergeson.

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Erbe and Beato were very disappointing to me - as I was hoping 1 or the other would be a phenom. Otoh, Liz stepped up a bit, Hernandez shows some hope, and Spoone and my favorite - Wilfredo Perez - showed potential. But there is no number 1/2 type of starter there, and that puts a big damper on things.

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A pretty mediocre year. A lot of guys moved up levels and did only okay. I keep waiting for that breakout year by a bunch of guys, but I'll wait another year.

I do think the system has more talent in it than in quite a while - just a lot of B prospects from which we can hope that a couple emerge as real prospects. Next year will be a good test for guys like Tripp and Vinyard.

I'm most disappointed in Beato - 13th ranked player heading into the 2006 draft with five pitches and his results speak for themselves - not so great.

I'm hoping that Berken's August finish has salvaged his season and we can look forward to a quality performance in Bowie next year. I also expect Mahoney and Angle to have more success at DelMarva than about any recent college selections in some time - perhaps one might start in Frederick.

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Good analysis overall. I'm not quite as down on Erbe and Beato as others are though. Erbe is only 19, and while his performance does not scream "future #1 starter," he does possess top of the rotation stuff. Beato had a decent season; not spectacular, not terrible. Having 5 pitches and a 94-95 MPH fastball means that he has a very high ceiling. I expect a bounceback season for both Beato and Erbe in 2008; both starting the year in Fredrick and moving to Bowie at some point in the season.

Rowell, Olson (assuming he doesn't get to 50 ML IP), Liz, Reimold and Snyder seem like locks for the top 10 again, with Erbe and Hoey very likely as well. With Weiters and Arietta likely locks to be new additions in the top 10, who gets that final spot? Spoone? Henson? Moore? Beato? Hernandez? Bergesen? Bascom? I'll go with Spoone.

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Good analysis overall. I'm not quite as down on Erbe and Beato as others are though. Erbe is only 19, and while his performance does not scream "future #1 starter," he does possess top of the rotation stuff. Beato had a decent season; not spectacular, not terrible. Having 5 pitches and a 94-95 MPH fastball means that he has a very high ceiling. I expect a bounceback season for both Beato and Erbe in 2008; both starting the year in Fredrick and moving to Bowie at some point in the season.

Rowell, Olson (assuming he doesn't get to 50 ML IP), Liz, Reimold and Snyder seem like locks for the top 10 again, with Erbe and Hoey very likely as well. With Weiters and Arietta likely locks to be new additions in the top 10, who gets that final spot? Spoone? Henson? Moore? Beato? Hernandez? Bergesen? Bascom? I'll go with Spoone.

I normally don't put players who have not played pro ball yet on the prospect lists but we will this year. Saying that, and it may sound hypocritical, but Weiters will most likely be the number one prospect while Arrieta most likely will not be in the top ten unless I'm convinced otherwise. Arrieta is still an unknown in my book and unless I can be convinced he deserves to be in that top ten due to talent alone, he'll probably have to wait until next year's list to get into the top ten.

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I normally don't put players who have not played pro ball yet on the prospect lists but we will this year. Saying that, and it may sound hypocritical, but Weiters will most likely be the number one prospect while Arrieta most likely will not be in the top ten unless I'm convinced otherwise. Arrieta is still an unknown in my book and unless I can be convinced he deserves to be in that top ten due to talent alone, he'll probably have to wait until next year's list to get into the top ten.

I think your normal rule is a good policy, to which there should be few if any exceptions. But if there is ever going to be an exception, a polished big-time college player who was drafted #5 overall and was universally praised as a great pick is the right situation in which to do it. Arrieta is far less clear.

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Arrieta was a consensus top talent entering the college season and and dropped to BA's 55th overall talent entering the draft. He should have been taken between the supplemental first round and the second round. I think he should receive pretty strong consideration to be in the top 10.

As the above posts hint, the last two or three spots are up for grabs between Beato, Spoone, DHerndandez, Henson and Moore. (FWIW, IMO, unless the ballpark adjustments are big, I think Moore's AAA stats are a good bit more impressive than Tripp's at Low A). I think Spoone gets in on merit with the last spot a jump ball between Beato's upside, Henson's Aberdeen showing, Arrieta and Moore. I would probably lean towards Arrieta, but it's tough.

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FWIW, IMO, unless the ballpark adjustments are big, I think Moore's AAA stats are a good bit more impressive than Tripp's at Low A.

Moore's .899 OPS was 8th on the Iowa Cubs among players with 100+ AB. That leads me to think that the stats there are rather inflated.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/external/brandedstats/t998.html?cid=451&lid=112&t=t_ibp&sid=milb

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Arrieta was a consensus top talent entering the college season and and dropped to BA's 55th overall talent entering the draft. He should have been taken between the supplemental first round and the second round. I think he should receive pretty strong consideration to be in the top 10.

As the above posts hint, the last two or three spots are up for grabs between Beato, Spoone, DHerndandez, Henson and Moore. (FWIW, IMO, unless the ballpark adjustments are big, I think Moore's AAA stats are a good bit more impressive than Tripp's at Low A). I think Spoone gets in on merit with the last spot a jump ball between Beato's upside, Henson's Aberdeen showing, Arrieta and Moore. I would probably lean towards Arrieta, but it's tough.

I'll agree on Moore, Spoone, Henson (though I wish he didn't make so many errors and wouldn't be surprised if Adams turns out as a better SS), and probably DHernandez, but disagree on Arrieta. You make an exception for a Weiters, but you don't on an Arrieta - especially since he does not have great stuff. 2 others I'd give some consideration for the back end of the top 10 are Wilfredo Perez and Matt Angle.

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