Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Elbren

Knott DFA'd?

Recommended Posts

Bad idea to DFA Knott, but he's been lousy this year and doesn't deserve the same level of scrutiny that the FO's handling of Cust received. The guy was hitting near the Mendoza line most of the year in the MINORS, has only 13 bombs for a so-called power hitter... but this Santos guy, at age 31, doesn't offer much promise at all.

False. He had an .807 OPS. His slugging percentage was higher in AAA than most of our "stars" here in Baltimore. His 13 bombs in AAA came in only 288 at-bats. He was on the AAA-Baltimore train several times. When he was with Baltimore he hardly played and thus needed to get his timing down upon his return to AAA. How many Orioles have had 13 bombs in 288 ABs here. Heck our leading HR hitter has 17. He WOULD help this team if given regular at-bats.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
False. He had an .807 OPS. His slugging percentage was higher in AAA than most of our "stars" here in Baltimore. His 13 bombs in AAA came in only 288 at-bats. He was on the AAA-Baltimore train several times. When he was with Baltimore he hardly played and thus needed to get his timing down upon his return to AAA. How many Orioles have had 13 bombs in 288 ABs here. Heck our leading HR hitter has 17. He WOULD help this team if given regular at-bats.

I didn't mean to insinuate he shouldn't have been given a chance, but I think his potential impact is greatly overstated. That's all. But I certainly agree that a move like this is typical of the Orioles and so far I'm very, very disappoined in McPhail's judgement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And Jack Cust is an Orioles castoff. I see your point, but sometimes that reasoning doesn't work.

There's not a lot of former Pirates out there producing...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There's not a lot of former Pirates out there producing...

Oliver Perez & Aramis Ramirez are two that come to mind. They were acquired via trade, but they were basically given away unless you think Xavier Nady and Jose Hernandez are fair value for them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I didn't mean to insinuate he shouldn't have been given a chance, but I think his potential impact is greatly overstated. That's all. But I certainly agree that a move like this is typical of the Orioles and so far I'm very, very disappoined in McPhail's judgement.

Yeah, I know. I don't think he is a savior either. But in this lost September he should be given a chance. If he sucks, discard him in the off-season. Torress and Stern and for that matter Majewski all should have gone before him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Oliver Perez & Aramis Ramirez are two that come to mind. They were acquired via trade, but they were basically given away unless you think Xavier Nady and Jose Hernandez are fair value for them.

I'll say it again: There's not a lot of former Pirates out there producing. This helps make my point.

Aramis Ramirez was already a great player when he left the team. Oliver Perez was highly touted as well.

Tike Redman, JR House and Victor Santos? Come on..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know we are in extremely frustrating times these days, but the "logic" of these arguments some days can make you nuts...

Here is all you need to know...

1. PAUL BAKO is still on the 40 man, as the 35 yr old FOURTH catcher.

2. Knott was hurt in April and May. I don't know how many of you have ever had real back pain, but I have, and you ain't swinging a bat or golf club too well...

3. Knott's back problems through the first couple months would have hurt him anywhere...beyond that, the Orioles screwed the pooch.

April .164/.656

May .184/.690

June .268/.850

July .319/.897

Aug .274/.832

Sept .375/1.319

And #4. PAUL BAKO is still on the 40 man, as the 35 yr old FOURTH catcher.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
He is the #2 catcher.:eek:

You know what I mean ;) the 4th one anyone wants to see. The one with no bat, an average glove, some errors, and a 16% caught stealing....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You know what I mean ;) ... and a 16% caught stealing....

Yeah, but that's because the pitchers do such a terrible job of holding runners or getting the ball to the plate in a timely fashion. Unless it's JR House behind the plate. Then it's because House just has a bad arm and slow release.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
False. He had an .807 OPS. His slugging percentage was higher in AAA than most of our "stars" here in Baltimore. His 13 bombs in AAA came in only 288 at-bats. He was on the AAA-Baltimore train several times. When he was with Baltimore he hardly played and thus needed to get his timing down upon his return to AAA. How many Orioles have had 13 bombs in 288 ABs here. Heck our leading HR hitter has 17. He WOULD help this team if given regular at-bats.

And what would our "stars" slugging percentage be if they were facing the same AAA pitching Knott is. So Knott's 13 bombs equal 13 bombs at the major league level?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I know we are in extremely frustrating times these days, but the "logic" of these arguments some days can make you nuts...

Here is all you need to know...

1. PAUL BAKO is still on the 40 man, as the 35 yr old FOURTH catcher.

2. Knott was hurt in April and May. I don't know how many of you have ever had real back pain, but I have, and you ain't swinging a bat or golf club too well...

3. Knott's back problems through the first couple months would have hurt him anywhere...beyond that, the Orioles screwed the pooch.

April .164/.656

May .184/.690

June .268/.850

July .319/.897

Aug .274/.832

Sept .375/1.319

And #4. PAUL BAKO is still on the 40 man, as the 35 yr old FOURTH catcher.

If Paul Bako is back here next year I will personally give you $500 to give to a charity of your choice. Paul Bako isn't blocking anyone from being here who the team thinks should be here. A months worth of games isn't going to make House or Knott a better player-they are who they are. Bako has started 1 game in 2 weeks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If Paul Bako is back here next year I will personally give you $500 to give to a charity of your choice. Paul Bako isn't blocking anyone from being here who the team thinks should be here. A months worth of games isn't going to make House or Knott a better player-they are who they are. Bako has started 1 game in 2 weeks.

You are arguning MY POINT! WHY is he here??? Why is he here now?

2 questions for you to answer:

1. Should Bako be on the 40 man over Knott?

2. Should Bako be on the 40 man over Jimenez?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If Paul Bako is back here next year I will personally give you $500 to give to a charity of your choice. Paul Bako isn't blocking anyone from being here who the team thinks should be here. A months worth of games isn't going to make House or Knott a better player-they are who they are. Bako has started 1 game in 2 weeks.

Dude - I'd be careful with making any bets regarding a team with such poor management. They knew what they were getting when they brought him in in the first place, what makes you think they might cut ties in the off-season?? Bako didn't exactly 'disappoint' from an expectations standpoint..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And what would our "stars" slugging percentage be if they were facing the same AAA pitching Knott is. So Knott's 13 bombs equal 13 bombs at the major league level?

After Nick Markakis the O's outfielders have hit eight homers (Patterson), five (Payton), six (Gibbons), and no one else has more than two. I'd be willing to bet that if you'd put Gibbons, Patterson, Payton, Bynum, and Tike Redman in Norfolk's pitcher's haven and gave them 288 at bats not a one of them would have hit 13 homers.

In fact, ol' Tike had 296 at bats in Norfolk this year and knocked a grand total of two balls out of the park. That's one fewer than Sebastien Boucher had at the Tides game I saw a few weeks ago.

No one is saying Jon Knott is a savior. We're just saying that he's a better hitter than any Oriole outfielder who hasn't played on the Greek Olympic baseball team.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2020 Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2020 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • Yes the BABiP was low and unlucky in 2020 but so what?  Usually, I think that’s important but we are still talking less than 1/4 of the at bats in a full season.  Those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. That being said, he has never had a real high BABIP in his career.  I don’t know if that is a trend or something you gloss over because of the limited number of at bats and SSS in any given season.
    • Just to elaborate on this, here’s a comparison of Santander’s actual numbers from 2020 compared to his expected numbers based on quality of contact: BA .261 vs. xBA .286 SLG .575 vs. xSLG .510 wOBA .358 vs. xwOBA .338. The gap between his xBA and xSLG (call it xISO) is .224.    For me that’s a more realistic predicter of Santander’s ISO than his actual .314 from last year.     The good news in here is that Santander’s xBA is 25 points higher than his actual BA.    Philip pointed out that Santander had a low .248 BABIP, and it looks like at least some of that was due to poor luck.     Having looked at all this, I think my projection of .775-.800 OPS was a little conservative and I’d boost it to the .800-.825 bracket.   I continue to think .900 is very aggressive.   At the same time, Santander is still relatively young and inexperienced, so maybe he’ll prove to be better than I expect in 2021.     
    • That’s fine...and I agree he is improving but there is a difference between improving and taking a massive leap. I know  how much weight you put on SSS but last year, he had 165 PA.  He did that in less than 1/4 of a season.  While that’s something, it’s more nothing than something. First and foremost, he has to show he can play a full season.  He has never played more than 93 ML games in any season.  He has to prove that not only can he stay healthy and play everyday but that playing everyday won’t wear him down as the season goes on.  In 2019, he had 380ish PA and his OPs was under 600 for the last month of the season.  Did he wear down?  Just got cold?  Who k laws but he has to show that he can do it over 550+ at bats. He has basically shown, so far, that he is a guy that will hit 260-265.  Could that improve?  Sure.  Do I expect him to take some huge leap?  No way.  I would expect him to be in the 255-280 range.  Not a terribly low floor but not a high ceiling either.     As Frobby mentioned, his ISO isn’t likely to be sustainable, so predicting a slugging around 500 (career 476) makes sense to me.  That is improvement. Its the OBP that gets me here.  His just doesn’t walk much.  Yes, in the SSS of last year, his Bb rate improved a little.  Could it go to 7 or even 8%?  Yes, I think it can.  As he shows more power and continues to improve, it’s possible teams stay away from him more.  If he does that, that brings him into the Nunez area of walk rates.  Nunez was roughly a 250/310 hitter with a 7.5ish% walk rate.  As I said, I would expect Santander to have a better BA and that is what will drive that OBP.  So, even if he got into those Nunez rates, we are still talking a 315-340 OBP.     RZ’s projection is on the high side of a reasonable ceiling.  Reasonable being defined as something that you don’t have to sit there and be overly optimistic to say he can get there.  Playing the odds so to speak. Im just not sure where you think he can realistically add another 50 points of OPS. Especially when you factor in the idea that you are essentially saying if he has an 800-850 OPS, that you would be disappointed in his season. 3 of the last 4 years, we have seen about an average of 25 players have a 900 OPS or higher.  That includes the SSS of last year.  Prior to that stretch, it was usually in the 15 player range.     I think Mancini is a more complete hitter than Santander is.  You are essentially saying Santander will take the same leap Mancini did in 2019.  One difference is that Mancini had already shown he could play a full season and that he could hit in the 290s at the ML level.  His leap was still totally unexpected, at least to the level it went and I would be surprised if he got to that level again.  Again, it’s possible...but I think it’s over the top to say it should happen.  Let’s see if he can even play 120 games first.
    • Good for that guy.  Glad he found success somewhere.
    • Santander will play all of the 2021 regular season at age 26.  He is still improving.
    • The homers and RBIs are possible..expecting him to have a 900 OPs is crazy to me.  Not saying he can’t do it but expecting makes no sense imo. (I know you’re is at 850..that’s certainly more realistic)
    • I hope he at least got to pose with that giant silver sword that the team owners gifted them. 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...