Jump to content
Frobby

Do we overrate our pitching prospects' chances of success?

Recommended Posts

I just want to make it clear, I am not necessarily advocating trading any of these guys. Just pointing out that the odds they all make good major league starters aren't real high.

I take the point that scouting reports and stats tell a lot, and you can't rely only on the general numbers I cited. At the same time, a lot of posters here (certainly including me) tend to know an awful lot about the Orioles' prospects, but don't know as much about all the other prospects in MLB, and so we tend to think of ours as elite without appreciating that there are lots of equally highly regarded prospects in other organizations, and a good number of them nevertheless don't pan out.

Exactly. For example, if Tillman was on another team, we would be scrutinizing his numbers saying "Wow, 39k and 24 walks in 65 innings isn't good". As fans that have seen him, we did see growth at the end and we give him a "pass", excentuating the positives. Is that wrong, no we are fans of a team, of course we will have our slant.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is why AM "stockpiles" pitching prospects because, no, they won't all likely pan out. But if they do then we are gonna have one hell of a run. The last thing the O's need to be doing is trading away these guys until we have a solid rotation though. You'll most likely lower the value of some pitchers becuase you've waited and they didn't pan out but the point isn't to trade, it's to see who rises to the top and helps the Orioles, and stays cheap.

Edited by byrdz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[/b]

Exactly. For example, if Tillman was on another team, we would be scrutinizing his numbers saying "Wow, 39k and 24 walks in 65 innings isn't good". As fans that have seen him, we did see growth at the end and we give him a "pass", excentuating the positives. Is that wrong, no we are fans of a team, of course we will have our slant.

Well, the problem is we also don't have the luxury of seeing those guys play...So, its tough to see their stuff, poise, etc...

However, people with an ounce of baseball knowledge should be able to read scouting reports, read what coaches/players are saying and see age and knoe that Tillman is very very young in his development.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We absolutely overrate our young pitching's chances IMO.

It's funny how everybody suddenly forgets about Hayden Penn, Garrett Olson, Daniel Cabrera and on and on...

These guys are not guaranteed to succeed.

I think Matusz has the best chance, followed by Britton because of his groundball tendencies, but Arrieta is a huge question mark if he'll stick in the rotation or have to move to the bullpen.

Tillman I think could be a TOR in another division and another park, particulary one like Comerica or PETCO which is more flyball pitcher friendly. OPACY is very unforgiving to flyball pitchers, as is Yankee Stadium, so there's two AL East parks Tillman is already at a disadvantage in. I think he'll only be a #3-4 starter in the AL East because of this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Stotle brings up a good point...Why can't we be Oakland east?
I was harping on this for most of the second half last season.

What exactly were you harping on, I'm not sure I understand.

Stotle's point is that we have concentrated on developing and trading for young pitching the last few years, so we should expect to exceed the MLB average in terms of yield. It's a good point, and I accept it.

But what exactly were you saying in the second half last year?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A lot of what I was thinking has already been said in this thread, so I'll try to keep it short.

We can't go trading away prospects because "they won't all pan out".

Chances of ALL of our top prospects panning out - 0%

Chances of NONE of our top prspects panning out - 0% (flame on) :P

Unfortunately the smartest thing we can do righ now is not trade, and just wait. (As much as I'd love to see some big moves made, it probably isn't in our long term interest)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We absolutely overrate our young pitching's chances IMO.

It's funny how everybody suddenly forgets about Hayden Penn, Garrett Olson, Daniel Cabrera and on and on...

These guys are not guaranteed to succeed.

I think Matusz has the best chance, followed by Britton because of his groundball tendencies, but Arrieta is a huge question mark if he'll stick in the rotation or have to move to the bullpen.

Tillman I think could be a TOR in another division and another park, particulary one like Comerica or PETCO which is more flyball pitcher friendly. OPACY is very unforgiving to flyball pitchers, as is Yankee Stadium, so there's two AL East parks Tillman is already at a disadvantage in. I think he'll only be a #3-4 starter in the AL East because of this.

I think if Tillman is good enough to be a no. 2 in MLB generally, he'll be good enough to be a no. 2 for us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Stotle brings up a good point...Why can't we be Oakland east?

I think Oakland had a really good run, but that well is drying. A lot of it is better scouting, some is luck and I will go to my grave saying that canyon behind homeplate and along the baselines helps their young pitchers a lot.

Seriously, when you have foul-territory the size of the Gadsden Purchase you help your pitchers out a lot.

AM seems to be preaching stocking up on pitchers, and that seems to be the way to go. The real question is how many Matt Riley's were in Oakland's system for every Barry Zito?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If it's true that we overrate our pitchers, then the rest of the baseball world must be as well, so I'm not going to beat myself up about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well, the problem is we also don't have the luxury of seeing those guys play...So, its tough to see their stuff, poise, etc...

However, people with an ounce of baseball knowledge should be able to read scouting reports, read what coaches/players are saying and see age and knoe that Tillman is very very young in his development.

Should/could, but do they. Perfect example, Kendry Morales. You were a big proponent of trading for him. Everyone said, no, look at his mlb stats, they aren't big fans of his stats in 2006 or 2007 in the majors. If he was on the O's, we would have given him more leeway, saying he is better than that.

You don't think fans on this board give up on prospects on other teams earlier than O's prospects?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, generally, I believe we overrate our pitching prospects on this board. Especially when considering their potential loss in a trade. Of course, this is just human nature... probably related to loss aversion/the endowment effect.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We're all very reluctant to trade away young pitchers. But I wonder if we are overrrating their chances of success.

Last year there were only 78 pitchers in MLB who threw enough innings to qualify. You can break them down this way:

Ages 20-24: 9

Ages 25-29: 39

Ages 30-34: 25

Ages 35+: 5

Focusing on the 39 pitchers who were 25-29, that means that all of MLB is only producing something like 8 pitchers a year who eventually will throw 162 innings in a season. If a team is producing a 162-inning pitcher once every three years, they are ahead of the game.

So, what are the odds that Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta and Britton are all guys who will be 162-inning pitchers in MLB? Probably not very high. Think of all those pitchers who make BA's top 100 list every year, and how few of them are going to end up throwing 162 innings in a major league season. If all four of these guys throw 162 innings some time in the next three seasons or so, we'll have pulled off a pretty amazing feat. And if all four are actually average to above average, it would be the equivalent of a royal flush.

Right, but the odds of getting 2 aces are higher with 4 cards. If you trade any cards away before you look at them, you have to hope you didn't trade your aces and keep the jokers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We absolutely overrate our young pitching's chances IMO.

It's funny how everybody suddenly forgets about Hayden Penn, Garrett Olson, Daniel Cabrera and on and on...

These guys are not guaranteed to succeed.

I think Matusz has the best chance, followed by Britton because of his groundball tendencies, but Arrieta is a huge question mark if he'll stick in the rotation or have to move to the bullpen.

Tillman I think could be a TOR in another division and another park, particulary one like Comerica or PETCO which is more flyball pitcher friendly. OPACY is very unforgiving to flyball pitchers, as is Yankee Stadium, so there's two AL East parks Tillman is already at a disadvantage in. I think he'll only be a #3-4 starter in the AL East because of this.

Add in Matt Riley, Rocky Coppinger, Jimmy Haynes, and Arthur Rhodes. Those guys were just as highly rated as Tillman and Arrieta (a notch below Matusz). All those guys has issues:

Riley - Head

Coppinger - Weight

Haynes - really not that good as advertised.

Rhodes - no real 3rd pitch to be a starter

Let me note, I am not advocating trading them in this post, but saying we overvalue our prospects, as all fans do. We are like parents, we only see the good in our "children".

On a note, can some compare Jimmy Haynes to Tillman back in the day? I remember Haynes had a killer curve like Tillman. Also Rhodes vs Arrieta, both had electric stuff, but Arrieta is similar that both had command issues and not a 3rd pitch. Are those decent comps?

Haynes vs Tillman

Rhodes vs Arrieta

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores

News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats







×
×
  • Create New...