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Roy Firestone

Not to be a "sour guy" but if the Sox sign Lackey

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Let me ask this: How much have the Yankees improved themselves this off-season? What improvement does Granderson bring minus the production of Matsui Et Al...?
Depends which Granderson they get.

If its 2008-2009 Granderson: none and they might have gotten worse

If its 2007 Granderson: lots

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If you think they are done, you are in for a shock...

You really twisted my post. I asked a question several pages into a thread where the OP and many other posts hinge on the concept that the Yanks and Sawx have improved themselves this offseason and we have only obtained a mediocre older pitcher....

Yes, the Yanks could sign Matt Holliday tonight to play LF or Bay for that matter. That still doesn't help most of the argument in this thread.

Boston OTOH, with Lackey, Cameron, getting rid of Lowell for Max Ramirez, offering 15.5 for Chapman... are kicking @$$.

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Depends which Granderson they get.

If its 2008-2009 Granderson: none and they might have gotten worse

If its 2007 Granderson: lots

Agreed. I always wonder about players whose production dropped off after 2007... I don't wish any ill on Granderson as a person, but I would sure find it poetic if NYY bought a lemon [or some lemon juice! no pun intended:laughlol:]

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I wouldn't have offered that money to Lackey. maybe its a bad taste in the mouth from Albert Belle, but I don't see the back end of that contract working out.

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Sorry. But its a fact. Nolan Ryan questioned his work ethic , weight, and lack of fire while with the Rangers. So, yes, I think it could be fair to be concerned about his desire to win.

Roy, you are too seasoned a sports fan (let alone journalist) to let this be your issue with Millwood. I'll make an All-star team of HOF guys who needed a good swift kick in the butt sometimes and put them up against any team in MLB. Millwood is not a cancer.

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Yes, its about $4.5M or so. Changes slightly every offseason. Its based on what it would cost to bring in a free agent that provides that amount of value to your team. Its not calculated theoretically, its an actual calculation of how much every FA is worth in terms of WAR on the market and then what they sign for.

Thanks, I'm new to a lot of the baseball analytical tools commonplace to most around here (or at least to many). Is there any website or other publication you would recommend as a good source to read up on this kind of stuff?

I would wonder how MLB teams across the league compare in terms of $/WAR efficiency?

Though I do not believe this is the offseason for the Orioles to make any big signings, I also don't think we can always ignore what the Yanks or Sox are doing. Shouldn't we approach FA with a zero-sum mentality? There are only so many wins available, and our in-division opposition adding (at least in projected terms) wins through signings certainly hurts our chances, does it not?

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This is what I am saying. It would be a waste when we are more than a couple top players away from competing. We should spend when that changes.

Never tried, if you read my post. All I said was It was leave us in the same place now (not close to the play offs). In 2 years we would have a number 2 or 3 starter being paid like a poor man's ace on a potential play off team. Why not wait a year or two and have another poor man's ace on a potential play off team.

So you are saying if this was a winning team we could afford 150 million dollar pay roll. First we are till not a winning team with a Lackey, a Bay, and a Holliday. Second, we will not be able to spend the 150 million anyway. So yes you are ignorant. And I was calling you optimistic because you should only spend all these money on the players if they make you a play off team. So it sounds like you think we are a couple players away which is not the case at all.

If we increase our pay roll by 60 million this year, we wont be a play off team and will the increase in attendance and revenue will be offset by increase in costs and they would make less money.

I agree but guys like A-Gon or I have heard you mention Hanley would not be a good situtation and that would require trading our best young guys.

Eaton and Hendrickson were brough in becasue we didn't need top players. we were going to bad either way. We just needed our young players to develop. The same is true this year.

Ramon Hernandez and Jay Payton were brought in under a different "administrative philosophy." The exact one you are against. They were brought in as players that would get the Orioles to the playoffs despite being not that good. I think maybe that is your problem. Just to make sure, you McPhail is in charge now, not Flanagan and Duquette.

Let them have the good players now. And when they are stuck with a team in two years where all their players are in their mid to upper 30's and they have 5 DH's making 20 million dollars a year and can't afford add anyone else then we make out move.

No, not at all!

Phase one is over, man. Didn't you get the memo?

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I'm not the least bit worried about Lackey signing with the Red Sox - in fact I was hoping either them or the Yankees would give him a big money deal for 4+ years. I will go on record right now as stating that by the time the 2012 season is over the Red Sox will be trying to move John Lackey. He'll give them a couple of good to very good years (even though I bet he struggles to give them 200+ innings each season), and will be a league average pitcher by the end of year 3. The Red Sox can afford to take this type of risk, the Orioles can't.

Tell you what, this guy explains my thoughts pretty well.

My thoughts exactly. I'm gald the Yanks or Sox signed Lackey to a long term deal. Lackey is a good pitcher, but he no Halladay, and as 1970 states, let's see what he is in a few years.

It amazes me how any O's fan can be upset because the O's didn't sign a 33 year old pitcher, with hundreds and hundreds of innings on his arm, who had arm problems last year, and has been losing velocity on his fastball to a 5 year contract for more than $80 million. I just don't see how that would have been a good investment over the long haul for the Birds.

Edited by Shopay

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What if we sign Bedard and he returns to top form. He's no CC or Roy H, but he can be pretty darn good. You have the potential number 1 in him, then your other number 1/2 Millwood is around for a year to help develop the young guys. And think to 11, not 10, Matusz or another young guy could be another great number 2 candidate.

What if we could get a rotation full of what should be #2 guys? The only problem is the AL East when Teams like the yanks have 2 or 3 number 1's and the rest number 2 or 3's. Tough to compete with, but any way you look at it, we're in a much better place than we were the last couple years.

Trust the leaders, they're smarter than we are when it comes to Baseball Ops (whether you admit it or not), let's see what happens.

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The Orioles have money to spend. We don't spend it.

You can't convince me that we couldn't have spent $12-18 million a year on Lackey for 5 years.

Is it ignorance to expect an owner of a MLB team in the AL East to try to compete financially when he has the assets to afford it? That's not optimism or ignorance, its called logic.

If I have the money to make my team better, it means we win more games, and then make more money. Duh.

I don't advocate trading our best young guys away, but I also don't think we should hold onto everyone if a good trade situation develops.

We are sitting by (like we have for the last 8 years) and watch the Yankees and Red Sox get better and better and better and better each off season while the Orioles make some token free agent signing (Jay Payton, Eaton, Hendrickson, Ramon Hernandez, etc.) and expect that to make a difference.

To defend that administrative philosophy goes way past ignorance and borders on insanity.

Folks are here basically saying that "the plan" means we watch the Big Two in the AL East sign all the great talents while we pick at their table scraps. That's the equivalent of what is happening now.

I know people will think I am crazy or whatever, but I will be proven right next off season when most of the elite 2011 free agent talents end up everywhere else but Baltimore. I bet Prince Fielder will be the DH for the Yankees for like 8 years.

MSK

Its easy for a millionaire to buy real estate and own 15 houses, and if one of those houses falls apart and they lose money, no big deal, they can easily eat the cost. However, if a struggling actor who can barely provide for himself buys a house that falls apart, that person would be in bankruptcy.

THAT is what the situation is here. The Yanks and Sox can outspend everyone because if the player fails or gets injured, no big deal, they eat the cost AND replace the player. The Orioles are not in a position to do that! Why this is so difficult to understand I do not know?

Also, if we were talking about Tex last year or a Pujols or Halladay, then I would say, throw the bank at them. However, I do not see John Frickin Lackey as a game changing player. He is not an ACE who will suddenly take the Orioles from cellar dwellar to contender. Nor is Bay or Holliday. You and Trea and Roy want the Orioles to throw money at these guys who just happen to be the best of a VERY limited free agent class, but to use Trea's terms, these men are NOT "premium players" and they will not be the difference between us winning and losing.

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Everything I've read about him is that he's great with teammates, he's a leader, and he is good with teaching the young guys about being a MLB pitcher.

I lived in Philly when Millwood was there. Roy is right... he was constantly bashed for being out of shape and lacking the "edge" of a warrior.

In fact, during one of their late season runs at a playoff spot, there was a classic moment when Millwood was waiting hit in the on-deck circle. Except, he was sitting on a stool looking completely winded. That picture ended up on the front page of the Inquirer...

It was the end of Millwood. He was basically run out of town for being "lazy bum" for a lack of a choice of a better phrase.

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I lived in Philly when Millwood was there. Roy is right... he was constantly bashed for being out of shape and lacking the "edge" of a warrior.

In fact, during one of their late season runs at a playoff spot, there was a classic moment when Millwood was waiting hit in the on-deck circle. Except, he was sitting on a stool looking completely winded. That picture ended up on the front page of the Inquirer...

It was the end of Millwood. He was basically run out of town for being "lazy bum" for a lack of a choice of a better phrase.

Not to disagree with you, but look at the city you're talking about. They booed Santa Claus and cheered loudly when Michael Irvin could have been paralyzed.

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Its easy for a millionaire to buy real estate and own 15 houses, and if one of those houses falls apart and they lose money, no big deal, they can easily eat the cost. However, if a struggling actor who can barely provide for himself buys a house that falls apart, that person would be in bankruptcy.

THAT is what the situation is here. The Yanks and Sox can outspend everyone because if the player fails or gets injured, no big deal, they eat the cost AND replace the player. The Orioles are not in a position to do that! Why this is so difficult to understand I do not know?

Also, if we were talking about Tex last year or a Pujols or Halladay, then I would say, throw the bank at them. However, I do not see John Frickin Lackey as a game changing player. He is not an ACE who will suddenly take the Orioles from cellar dwellar to contender. Nor is Bay or Holliday. You and Trea and Roy want the Orioles to throw money at these guys who just happen to be the best of a VERY limited free agent class, but to use Trea's terms, these men are NOT "premium players" and they will not be the difference between us winning and losing.

While the Orioles are certainly not the Yankees, they could be in the same ballpark as the Red Sox -- or not far off. The Red Sox do not have the ability to absorb several huge contracts if the players turn into busts.

I don't know why Baltimore fans suddenly think that the Orioles are some small market team that can't handle a couple of big dollar contracts. The only difference between the Orioles and Red Sox is that the Red Sox are willing to take risks. The only thing that they cannot afford is letting the Yankees get significantly better than them -- something that the Orioles appear to not be concerned about currently.

Signing Lackey or Holliday won't make the Orioles a contender this year, but it won't make them a worse team. It will make the team better for the future.

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While the Orioles are certainly not the Yankees, they could be in the same ballpark as the Red Sox -- or not far off. The Red Sox do not have the ability to absorb several huge contracts if the players turn into busts.

I don't know why Baltimore fans suddenly think that the Orioles are some small market team that can't handle a couple of big dollar contracts. The only difference between the Orioles and Red Sox is that the Red Sox are willing to take risks. The only thing that they cannot afford is letting the Yankees get significantly better than them -- something that the Orioles appear to not be concerned about currently.

Signing Lackey or Holliday won't make the Orioles a contender this year, but it won't make them a worse team. It will make the team better for the future.

Because we have a large segment of fans on the OH that have bought into the losing, mediocre mentality of the Orioles ownership. We still make token free agent bids, we still don't bring in the necessary personnel, and we still sit by while the Red Sox and Yankees grab all the good players.

Yes, our infrastructure is vastly improved only because we went from being an abysmal operation to a standard functioning one in a short amount of time. Whoopty-doo.

Meanwhile, our on-field product is not anywhere near the same level of contention than the Rays!

Folks will sit back and argue this or that, but the bottom line is that we aren't poised to win anything, and I am not talking about a contention run, I mean just getting to friggin' .500 this year.

But the proof will be in the pudding. Just watch and see what happens. We will see who is right when the dust settles.

MSK

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Because we have a large segment of fans on the OH that have bought into the losing, mediocre mentality of the Orioles ownership.

Until you find all those quotes that show that alot of people here are in favor of doing nothing, you need to stop grouping everyone into a strawman group that you can argue with.

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