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Anybody Else Wonder Why DT Didn't Pinch Run For Atkins?

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You don't need a huge secondary lead. If you walk through the exercise on a field with a stopwatch, you see that balls to 2b/ss are fair bets to score with a runner with average speed, provided the ball isn't hit exceptionally hard. Balls hit to 1/b/3b/p are a poor bet to score, even with an extra three/four feet on the lead (since you are freezing momentarily to clear a linedrive). The concept you are describing isn't a reality, I don't think, since there is no real gain and you are putting the runner in increased danger.

I understand why you are saying what you are saying, conceptually, but is this something you've heard a coach explain? Because the application of the the large secondary lead doesn't make much sense. To drive it home, why are you exposing your player to a pick-off from the catcher? The large secondary lead at 3rd is almost never a good idea.

I am assuming the runner takes a responsible secondary lead. I was always told to take as much of a lead as I could as long as I can get back in time. As bob Dylan says, "Makes sense to me." I am a big believe of the large secondary lead at 3b. Helps out on past balls as well as running on contact and it is a rare play for a C to throw to a moving 3b unless that C is I-Rod or Molina.

I never tried the stop watch. I would have to assume that the runner will be 3-5 ft farther down the line if he has an extra 3-5 ft starting position.

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Why? There are no outs. A line drive cought and he is doubled off, a comebacker to the pitcher and he is dead in the water at home. With no outs you have to hold to see where the ball is hit, IMO.
A liner and you don't run. A ground ball to anyone other than the pitcher, you do.

How is this complicated? Stotle explained it very well.

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When Longoria fields the ball Atkins is a step or two in full stride and the same distance from the bag as Longoria. Had he been holding to see where the ball was hit he would have had no trouble getting back to the bag. Even if Longoria fields it cleanly he would be foolish to try to get Atkins out at 3B. Most likely everyone is safe. Look at it again.

Thanks for clarifying. Absolutely had he been holding rather than moving down the line he could have returned safely, but then he also doesn't score on a grounder to the right side in my opinion.

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A liner and you don't run. A ground ball to anyone other than the pitcher, you do.

How is this complicated? Stotle explained it very well.

If you are running on contact how can you hold for a liner. If you can hold for a liner than you can hold for a GB right at the 3B. It's no different than when on 2B you don't run on a GB to the SS side of you unless there are 2 outs. How is this complicated? Edited by El Gordo

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A liner and you don't run. A ground ball to anyone other than the pitcher, you do.

How is this complicated? Stotle explained it very well.

But Stotle didn't agree on the contact play.

Stotle:

"He looked back to see where Longoria was so he could adjust his line. If you watch, he then veered to inside the foul line to try and put his body in between Longoira and Navarro. I think it was a contact play and he was told to run on any groundball. I disagree with the call, but he executed it very well from break to taking a good line home when he saw the ball bobbled.

I don't remember how many outs there were, but that's a spot where I'd expect to have him only going on a groundball through and back to the bag on a fly. Wasn't BAL at the top of the order?"

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Thanks for clarifying. Absolutely had he been holding rather than moving down the line he could have returned safely, but then he also doesn't score on a grounder to the right side in my opinion.
With no outs and a poor base runner, you don't need to be aggressive. Reminds me of DT baserunning from the first half of '09.
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I am assuming the runner takes a responsible secondary lead. I was always told to take as much of a lead as I could as long as I can get back in time. As bob Dylan says, "Makes sense to me." I am a big believe of the large secondary lead at 3b. Helps out on past balls as well as running on contact and it is a rare play for a C to throw to a moving 3b unless that C is I-Rod or Molina.

I never tried the stop watch. I would have to assume that the runner will be 3-5 ft farther down the line if he has an extra 3-5 ft starting position.

High school, and to a slightly lesser extent college coaches, preach aggressiveness because of the higher percentage of wild pitches and pitches that get away from catchers. That advantage is drastically less useful at the ML level, and catchers are much better (making the throw to third much more plausible). The reason you don't see the throw much outside of elite catchers is that most runners know not to stray too far: (1) you aren't really gaining any true advantage with the extra 3-5 feet, and (2) you exposing yourself to too much danger from a strong scoring position. Accordingly, a catcher is risking too much throwing to 3b when there isn't a good chance of getting the runner (plus, where is he going). If someone is really trying to grab an extra 3-5 feet, you put a play on and pick him off. Pitch out or just pitch up or out and have the 3B breaking after pitcher releases.

I think the aggressive secondary lead on third with no outs is something someone might be able to conceptually argue for, but in practice I don't see anything you gain and you really expose yourself for no reason.

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I think the aggressive secondary lead on third with no outs is something someone might be able to conceptually argue for, but in practice I don't see anything you gain and you really expose yourself for no reason.

I don't think it should be a standard operating procedure per se, but I can see how the sense of urgency to score an insurance run may have been pressing on Dave Trembley (if he did, in fact, make that call) to ratchet up the aggression a bit.

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But Stotle didn't agree on the contact play.

Stotle:

"He looked back to see where Longoria was so he could adjust his line. If you watch, he then veered to inside the foul line to try and put his body in between Longoira and Navarro. I think it was a contact play and he was told to run on any groundball. I disagree with the call, but he executed it very well from break to taking a good line home when he saw the ball bobbled.

I don't remember how many outs there were, but that's a spot where I'd expect to have him only going on a groundball through and back to the bag on a fly. Wasn't BAL at the top of the order?"

I'd rather him have run even after seeing the outcome of the play. A double play there would have been pretty tough to overcome. I'd rather have 1st and 2nd w/ 1 out than 3rd and 2 outs.

And you absolutely can break after realizing that the ball is not a line drive. Its not just listening for wood as Stotle said. You see where the ball is going then go, if its on a line or to the pitcher, you hold. Anywhere else on the ground you go, because if its a slow grounder you've got a chance to score, and if its a hard grounder, you avoid the double play.

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I'd rather him have run even after seeing the outcome of the play. A double play there would have been pretty tough to overcome. I'd rather have 1st and 2nd w/ 1 out than 3rd and 2 outs.

And you absolutely can break after realizing that the ball is not a line drive. Its not just listening for wood as Stotle said. You see where the ball is going then go, if its on a line or to the pitcher, you hold. Anywhere else on the ground you go, because if its a slow grounder you've got a chance to score, and if its a hard grounder, you avoid the double play.

I think this is the right argument for running on contact. As it happened, Longoria bobbled and probably would have at best gotten the out at 1st if Atkins isn't running, but that is hindsight.

I stated I disagreed with the call, but it isn't a crazy call or anything. Just so happened that the ball was hit to one of the few spots that made it look silly.

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To the OP - I thought the same exact thing last night: Why aren't we pinch running for Atkins? (I only thought this because the announcers made a point to say that Atkins doesn't have much speed).

But in the end it's moot, because anyone would have been out (noted by many above) in that situation.

A lot of things went right last night and a lot of things went wrong. We lost the game. We can blame Trembley but Pie's throw to home cost us a run (or more), horrible hitting with runners on cost us countless runs and of course Gonzo cost us 2 runs that ended the game.

It is what it is. We aren't going undefeated this season and the best we can hope for is 161 - 1. Oh well.

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I don't think it should be a standard operating procedure per se, but I can see how the sense of urgency to score an insurance run may have been pressing on Dave Trembley (if he did, in fact, make that call) to ratchet up the aggression a bit.

Sure, I understand Trembley calling an "on contact" play. But the secondary lead doesn't gain you anything there. You just do what Atkins did -- make sure it isn't to the pitcher and take off. Bad luck it went to 3B, but an aggressive secondary lead is not the way to try and get a runner home more quickly there. Maybe with a Roberts or Izturis.

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I'd rather him have run even after seeing the outcome of the play. A double play there would have been pretty tough to overcome. I'd rather have 1st and 2nd w/ 1 out than 3rd and 2 outs.

And you absolutely can break after realizing that the ball is not a line drive. Its not just listening for wood as Stotle said. You see where the ball is going then go, if its on a line or to the pitcher, you hold. Anywhere else on the ground you go, because if its a slow grounder you've got a chance to score, and if its a hard grounder, you avoid the double play.

If he goes back to the bag, there's no DP. Longeria has to look him back first. What likely happens is Roberts is out at 1B. Going for the force at 2B would be too chancey.

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I'd rather him have run even after seeing the outcome of the play. A double play there would have been pretty tough to overcome. I'd rather have 1st and 2nd w/ 1 out than 3rd and 2 outs.

And you absolutely can break after realizing that the ball is not a line drive. Its not just listening for wood as Stotle said. You see where the ball is going then go, if its on a line or to the pitcher, you hold. Anywhere else on the ground you go, because if its a slow grounder you've got a chance to score, and if its a hard grounder, you avoid the double play.

I agree. But I'd take my chances with Roberts up there as he is tougher to double up. If it was any of the 4-6 guys or Atkins, then I'd factor in the double play more.

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I'd rather him have run even after seeing the outcome of the play. A double play there would have been pretty tough to overcome. I'd rather have 1st and 2nd w/ 1 out than 3rd and 2 outs.

And you absolutely can break after realizing that the ball is not a line drive. Its not just listening for wood as Stotle said. You see where the ball is going then go, if its on a line or to the pitcher, you hold. Anywhere else on the ground you go, because if its a slow grounder you've got a chance to score, and if its a hard grounder, you avoid the double play.

I think this is the right argument for running on contact. As it happened, Longoria bobbled and probably would have at best gotten the out at 1st if Atkins isn't running, but that is hindsight.

I stated I disagreed with the call, but it isn't a crazy call or anything. Just so happened that the ball was hit to one of the few spots that made it look silly.

Agree w/ both.

Also, I'd like to note, again, that Atkins made a good play there, and even a good slide. He also hit a big double in the 9th. I'm not a big fan of this signing, but for all the heat he took, both of those plays were positives.

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